# Is it right to double down a blackjack if you know you'll get a 10?

#### alwayssplitaces

##### Well-Known Member
If you know you'll get a 10 because it has been exposed and the dealer says that the 10 will be the next card, you're sitting at 3rd base with a blackjack. Is it better to double down your blackjack and take the 10? Or should you just take the automatic 3:2 payoff? Let's assume that you can't get that 10 on the next hand.

#### Sonny

##### Well-Known Member
It might make sense if the dealer's upcard is 2-T.

-Sonny-

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#### NightStalker

##### Well-Known Member
Yes always

alwayssplitaces said:
If you know you'll get a 10 because it has been exposed and the dealer says that the 10 will be the next card, you're sitting at 3rd base with a blackjack. Is it better to double down your blackjack and take the 10? Or should you just take the automatic 3:2 payoff? Let's assume that you can't get that 10 on the next hand.
If dealer shows small card: 2-3-4, you are looking at less EV than dealer showing 9-T-A.. But still it's around 30% more EV

#### 21gunsalute

##### Well-Known Member
If you can get away with it, take the Blackjack payout and then attempt to double down. You may be able to confuse the dealer enough to get a 3:2 payout and then a double down payout.

#### Richard Munchkin

##### Well-Known Member
If you are playing heads up take the BJ payout and then bet the 10 on the next hand.

#### aslan

##### Well-Known Member
How does the possibility of a push (player 21 vs dealer 21) weigh against a sure thing blackjack?

#### bronco60

##### Member
Sonny said:
It might make sense if the dealer's upcard is 2-T.

-Sonny-
For European Hole Card (Lose all to natural, draw from infinite deck):

Keep BJ, Dealer gets 10 (result: push)

Vs.

Double down on BJ:

9/13 * 2 bets won when dealer gets non-10 = +1.38461538
4/13 * 2 bets lost when dealer gets 10 = -0.615384615

= +0.769230765

Conclusion: When playing against European No Hole Card, Double

#### zengrifter

##### Banned
alwayssplitaces said:
If you know you'll get a 10 because it has been exposed and the dealer says that the 10 will be the next card, you're sitting at 3rd base with a blackjack. Is it better to double down your blackjack and take the 10? Or should you just take the automatic 3:2 payoff? Let's assume that you can't get that 10 on the next hand.
If the house has announced it, and you can take it, then sure - double. zg

#### EmeraldCityBJ

##### Well-Known Member
The dealer draws to 21, and will push your hand 4-12% of the time, depending on the up card. If we take the worst case, the EV to double is:

2 * 0.88 + 0 * 0.12 = 1.76

A 1.76 return is better than a 1.5 return, so the mathematically correct play is to double. There are other non-mathematical factors to consider before making the play.

#### Sonny

##### Well-Known Member
EmeraldCityBJ said:
If we take the worst case, the EV to double is:

2 * 0.88 + 0 * 0.12 = 1.76
The worst case would be the dealer having a BJ and taking your doubled bet (instead of pushing). Don't forget about that possibility.

-Sonny-