StandardDeviant said:
Yeah, I know my spread needs to widen in order to get a positive expectation. I've played around with CVCX and have a feel for what I need to do to get into a winning game.
I've just been a little unsure about whether my skills are high enough to play full out. Each time I go, I get a bit better. I can keep the count most of the time, but I can get distracted and lose it. I am also not sure yet that I "look" casual while counting. So before I play at higher spreads and units, I need to practice, practice, practice!
I'm not bleeding money, after all, even playing at a 0.5 to 1 percent disadvantage, that's only 12 - 25 bucks per hour (at 100 hands per hour), and I try to find the slow dealers (because it's easier for me to keep the count), so I'm probably not getting in 100 hands per hour. Of course...then there's our old friend, standard deviation, which causes results to vary
I absolutely love your name lol. Just the old run-of-the-mill deviant lol. Beautiful, "normalizing" as it does the extremes on the "normalcy" curve lmao.
Like, once one is already way, way, out there in the first place, you are completely normal amongst the way-way-out-there-folks lol.
Don't worry, it's possible I am still 2 SD's out from the standard-deviant folks that are already way way out there lol.
OK- on the one hand you seemed to be worried about skill level. On the other hand you are worried about "heat".
It seems you have CVBJ and CVCX.
First tell CVBJ a basic spread from CVCX. With or without indexes. Forget camo maybe. Play alot of hands with CVBJ using a roll of choice but always in the same game. CVBJ will tell you when you bet the wrong amount or improperly use an index. After a few thousand hands, or more, what the heck it's free, plug those results, including errors, into CVCX and see where you are from an SD point-of-view.
If they are "normal", your skill level is probably fine.
The point is to play the exact same game the exact same way to check skills.
If you want to plug some basic "camo" betting into CVBJ, "never rasie after losing", "never lower after winning" why not if that's how you think you will bet?
Then, when convinced of your skill, pick your game, roll, spread, betting strategy, etc and go out there and do it.
Never play a shoe without knowing what to expect from it kind of thing.
Forget this "real life I lose the count stuff". If it happens in real life, stop playing that shoe and begin again on the next shoe.
Disclaimer - I can count and, actually sometimes do, and find my biggest problem is just remembering what the RC count was at the end of the last round it takes so long to start another round lol.
I don't see the point of wasting money with small spreads to gain some level of skill, a level that probably you won''t be able to measure your skill level anyway from actual results between betting at different mins etc.
How will you ever know what your skill level is?
For however long you have been playing, in whatever way, 1-3 spreads with $10 mins or 1-3 spreads with $25 mins, have you yet come to any conclusion about your skill level?
When will you and how will you convince yourself your skills are "good enough"? How does what you actually have done compare to what you should have expected up until now, even with crappy spreads, even if playing in an -EV situation?
It doesn't matter whether your spread is crappy, whether your min switches from $10 to $25, whether your overall EV from playing a certain way is + or -, what matters is whether you can determine where you are supposed to be at some point in time and how far away you are from that point.
Play as many different ways as you want, just, maybe as a start, at least play one shoe in a consistent way, whatever way it may be, becasue you have run CVCX to tell you what to expect from that one shoe playing that way.
Then again, keep in mind, you are only a "standarddeviant" and I am, apparently, way way worse than that, in that, I think I can honestly say, I don't think I've ever played a hand of BJ without knowing what to expect from it.
More or less anyway lmao. A few notable exceptions exist lol. London, 1971,
betting my return plane ticket back to the USA. That one pretty much cured me for the next 25 years lol. Flash forward to Aruba, 1996, "Sir, are you sure you want to hit that 21?". When one is asked that same question 3 times in 25 minutes, it gets a little embarrassing lmao.
After that, my journey began lol.
Good luck standard deviant.
What a great name.