Is the game of BJ soon to be extinct???

moo321

Well-Known Member
MJ1 said:
Sadly, I think a lot of you are missing the point. The fact is that BJ is becoming more and more a waste of time. What was once a lucrative enterprise seems like it is rapidly deteriorating. While there will always be a select few who can exploit an AP opportunity, the future of BJ for the masses of counters looks quite dismal.

Who cares if 1 in 10000 finds some remote opportunity to make 10 bucks. The other 9999 counters lost their chance. I guess you either understand my point in this thread or you don't.
You're not looking in the right places. I've found dealers dealing less than a half deck in shoe games, there is still single deck and fantastic double deck in different places.

And even if counting went to hell, what about poker? Great time to be alive.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
21forme said:
As I kept walking, I then saw the 8D, H17, 6:5 tables full of patrons....
Holy Moly. And Great Scott too. You actually are saying real-life 8D, H17, with 6-5 games exist?

That's a bloody crime. I'm in more than a little shock lol. A Basic Strategy BJ game with over 2% HA? Makes me almost physically ill.

What with NO DAS and D10 too lmao? Maybe that's next, except also CSM.

How can such a pile of bull even still be legally allowed to be called "BJ"?

It used to be (I assume) you couldn't legally call "Double Exposure BJ" just "BJ" becasue it was so fundamentally different with the rules and also maybe because of a HA 2-3 times higher.

I guess now, for a goofball like me, looking, basically, for entertainment value, onto Double Exposure, Blackjack Switch maybe, Craps, Baccarat, maybe single-zero roulette, Maybe 3-card poker without the Pair-Plus bet, maybe video poker, probably many more games.

Not to mention, last I looked, granted, a while back lol, those electronic
BJ games were great with low mins ($1) and better rules than "real" BJ offered in the same casino.

Wow. 8D H17 6-5. Was mid-shoe entry allowed lmao?

I had no idea, here in my ivory castle lol, - last Sat I played the electronic stuff here in Pgh for the first time on a whim and felt crappy enough about just a $5min 6D H17, DAS, DA2, resplit once, full peek, with LS and 7-card Charlies game. Still had an "expected" good time paying 99cents for hot dogs and 99 cents for 16-ounce beers lol. 5 hours later not sure where else I could have had as much fun for an "expected" $10 loss lol.

Not playing golf.

Not buying a ticket to the Pitt game.

Not seeing a movie.

Etc lmao.
 

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
sabre said:
I understand your point. I just think it's incorrect. I see fewer CSMs today than when they were first introduced. I've seen an increase in the number of mega casinos which tolerate huge spreads and bets. I've seen an increase in the number of error-prone, poorly trained dealers. I don't see BJ being worse today than it was 5 years ago. I don't have any reason to think it will be worse 5 years from now. But time will tell ...
I have 6 casinos within a two hour drive from where I live. When I started playing over 5 years ago some had 6 deck games with very good pen. Now 4 of the 6 use CSMs and the other 2 have gone to 8 decks with poor pen. So I guess its a case of your mileage will vary. So from my perspective things have become significantly worse with much less playable opportunities. I will agree with the number of error-prone dealers increasing however.
 

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
SleightOfHand said:
I wonder... I hear that ploppies do not like to play CSMs because they feel the flow of the cards are ruined. Wouldn't that same idea be felt with the electronic bj games?
Some ploppies don't like CSMs but most don't care or don't even know the difference. One of the main electronic bj games showing up states that each player has his own 6 deck shoe so there is no flow to ruin and the cards are shuffled after each round.

In my opinion the reason electronic bj games are going to be main stream is not so much to eliminate the AP but to eliminate all those employee salaries. That's where a casino will be able to increase its revenue. If you replace a pit of 8 dealers, with 2 floor sups, and a pit boss that's probably well over 100k worth of salaries and employee benefits saved with less surveillance and no pesky counters to worry about. Shareholders will also love it, I'm always amazed when I've had stocks with companies which announce layoffs, the stock price will usually rise.

The last time I was in the Vegas Club a whole pit was gone and one of those gawdy machines has been installed instead. People will be leary at first but once the casinos shove them down peoples throats they will play them. They are often full when I walk by. Table games will probably still stick around for a while in VIP rooms. Even Bill Zender said in his chat on this site that electronic games will probably replace table games within 20 years.
 

MJ1

Well-Known Member
SystemsTrader said:
So from my perspective things have become significantly worse with much less playable opportunities.
This makes me rather despondent to say the least. Nice to see somebody tell it like it is rather than try and blow smoke up my a$$.

Face it guys, as Jeff Ma wrote in his essay at the end of BDTH, the Golden Era of card counting came to an end when him and his crew stopped playing in 2000. There is a reason why the MIT Teams no longer play the game or train new crews to attack the tables. Contemporary conditions make the game not worth the effort...the profitability just isn't what it used to be. Ask any of the former MIT players...they will tell you.

Back then, nearly all the 6D games in Vegas were S17, DA2, DAS, LS, RSA...ahh the good ole' days.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
And the Golden Age of Baseball died in 1933, and the Golden Age of Comics died during WW2. Who gives a fig?
You play the games you find, and you find the games you can play. There are many more opportunities out there today then there were in 2000, so I'd suggest you put an end to the pity party and stop living in the past.
I'm currently reading Stuart Perrys BJ Diary, and the descriptions you uses of games in the mid-90s surprised me. I'd been led to believe they were much better than it turns out they actually were.
 

MJ1

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
There are many more opportunities out there today then there were in 2000,
HA. What good are more opportunities if they offer dismal returns?
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
MJ1 said:
Face it guys, as Jeff Ma wrote in his essay at the end of BDTH, the Golden Era of card counting came to an end when him and his crew stopped playing in 2000. There is a reason why the MIT Teams no longer play the game or train new crews to attack the tables. Contemporary conditions make the game not worth the effort...the profitability just isn't what it used to be. Ask any of the former MIT players...they will tell you.
Jeez, the size of the ego of these MIT guys! Are you kidding me?

Since when is the MIT team some kind of real authority?

Why people give credence to these fictional accounts is beyond me.

Back then, nearly all the 6D games in Vegas were S17, DA2, DAS, LS, RSA...
Um, most still are. There are hundreds of tables in vegas with these rules, all easily exploited.

By your definition, we're still very much in the "golden age".
 

sabre

Well-Known Member
johndoe said:
Um, most still are. There are hundreds of tables in vegas with these rules, all easily exploited.
I'll disagree there. At least if you don't count the high limit rooms. In the past few years, MGM replaced dozens of low limit S17 6 deckers with H17. The Trop and Monte Carlo reduced (eliminated?) their S17 tables. NYNY, Luxor don't have any. Mirage doesn't for less than $25. Venetian/Palazzo is all H17. So is Planet Hollywood. Wynn/Encore have loads, with notches in the shoes for cutting off 2 decks, used religiously by every dealer last time I was there ... so I can't count those. TI doesn't exactly have a ton.

And downtown isn't much better.


But the thing is ... rules aren't everything. Deterioration in rules != deterioration in games. Penetration, crowding, lack of heat, dealer speed, dealer mistake frequency, are all hugely important, and the right combination can dwarf crappy rules easily. If I can get 200 hands an hr at an 8D H17 playall with a SCORE of 65 ... well ... BJ isn't dead to me.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
OK, I'll grant that if you're playing for very low stakes it's deteriorated, but $25 min is pretty reasonable and is widespread. If you aren't playing with $25 or more as a unit, you can't be making a decent hourly rate by just counting anyhow. (Plus, isn't $25 today like $10 in 1998? :) ) And there's always wonging.

MC still has S17, as well as the others you mentioned, and then some.

But you're right about other conditions, and looking at the "whole story"; for example, there are many 8D/H17 tables with ridiculously good pen if you look around. (Enough to easily compensate for the H17.)

I don't bother with downtown myself, it's too depressing.
 

MJ1

Well-Known Member
sabre said:
If I can get 200 hands an hr at an 8D H17 playall with a SCORE of 65 ... well ... BJ isn't dead to me.
That is a C-SCORE of 130. I don't buy it. How many hands are you playing per round? What is PEN for this game? Spread?
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
johndoe said:
OK, I'll grant that if you're playing for very low stakes it's deteriorated, but $25 min is pretty reasonable and is widespread. If you aren't playing with $25 or more as a unit, you can't be making a decent hourly rate by just counting anyhow. (Plus, isn't $25 today like $10 in 1998? :) ) And there's always wonging.

MC still has S17, as well as the others you mentioned, and then some.

But you're right about other conditions, and looking at the "whole story"; for example, there are many 8D/H17 tables with ridiculously good pen if you look around. (Enough to easily compensate for the H17.)

I don't bother with downtown myself, it's too depressing.
I wish $25 was like $10 in 1998!! While the cost of goods may have risen by about 100% since 1998, the purchasing power or discretionary income of people on a whole sure hasn't!
 

sabre

Well-Known Member
MJ1 said:
That is a C-SCORE of 130. I don't buy it. How many hands are you playing per round? What is PEN for this game? Spread?
8D H17 LS RSA 1 deck cut. Hi-Lo. About 25 index plays. 1-2x30. Play-all. I get a SCORE about 65. I'm not even taking into account wonging.

Heads up, 200 hands/hr is very doable ... especially with a fast dealer and an ASM.
 

MJ1

Well-Known Member
sabre said:
8D H17 LS RSA 1 deck cut. Hi-Lo. About 25 index plays. 1-2x30. Play-all. I get a SCORE about 65. I'm not even taking into account wonging.

Heads up, 200 hands/hr is very doable ... especially with a fast dealer and an ASM.
But why do you spread from 1 to 2 hands in a heads up game? This type of switching back and forth between 1 and 2 hands is usually done if there is at least one other player at the table. Either play 1 hand play all or play 2 hands play all...but switching back and forth like that looks bizarre in a heads up game.

BTW, a 1 to 60 spread is highly unrealistic.
How long do you typically play, 20 minutes? The game must be profitable under real world conditions, not just on your sim.
 
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sabre

Well-Known Member
BTW, a 1 to 60 spread is highly unrealistic. [/B] How long do you typically play, 20 minutes? The game must be profitable under real world conditions, not just on your sim.


You're right. I've never actually played blackjack in a casino before. I just run sims and reply to threads.
 
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StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
If the casinos felt that the rule changes would decrease the volumes of players at the tables, they would not change the rules.

Unfortunately, since most players don't appreciate the difference between S17 v. H17, the value of LS, the impact of penetration, I can imagine a deterioration of the rules.

We need more movies like "21" to keep public awareness that the game can be beaten by the skilled player.
 

MJ1

Well-Known Member
sabre said:
You're right. I've never actually played blackjack in a casino before. I just run sims and reply to threads.
Well keyboard warriors are a dime a dozen. No offense, but how many legit BJ players do you know of that use a 60 to 1 spread? If you can really pull that off in a casino, then the more power to you. But I am sure most players would agree that this spread is extreme.
 
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