i've been on a negative slide lately. after winning a few consecutive sessions on the 8 deck i got slammed by trying to apply some cover. i usually enter when the shoes are fresh, but lately i've been entering mid-shoe flat betting with basic strategy until the next shoe comes, but i've been losing big time. i started doing this because i don't want the pit to notice a pattern of my play. my losing sessions have happened for close to 10 consecutive sessions with nearly the same result by applying this strategy. can entering mid-shoe playing BS cause that much of a negative impact on BR or is this part of negative variance? my sessions are generally short. in and out. i rarely play for longer than half and hour. i'm thinking if my sessions were longer this would have less of an impact on me, but because my sessions are so short i don't have an opportunity to come back. i've never done this before and don't want to blame this as the reason i'm losing.
Is this cover play hurting me?
- Thread starter Ace007
- Start date
Act like a card-carrying ploppy
Just sit down, wave off the dealer, and say "I'll wait for a fresh shoe."
Regular casino patrons do this all the time. For example, there was this one time when, for a change, I was beating the living s__t out of an 8-deck shoe - count so high I was having trouble with true count conversion - "Um, 0.8 x 44 = 35.2" - and a nice older gentleman sat down while I lightened the chip tray, refusing to wreck the flow of cards. :joker:
Just sit down, wave off the dealer, and say "I'll wait for a fresh shoe."
Regular casino patrons do this all the time. For example, there was this one time when, for a change, I was beating the living s__t out of an 8-deck shoe - count so high I was having trouble with true count conversion - "Um, 0.8 x 44 = 35.2" - and a nice older gentleman sat down while I lightened the chip tray, refusing to wreck the flow of cards. :joker:
I am like Friedo. I tell the dealer I don't want people upset with me for entering midshoe. I usually get thanks if a request not to enter from a ploppy didn't precede this conversation. If everyone asks me to enter midshoe I say, I have done it before with peoples blessings and had different sentiment being expressed by the end of the shoe. I am happy to be patient I have all day and don't want to lose all my money too soon. It works every time no problems.
If it's 8D, it's probably a decent sized store, just walk around until you see a ton of low cards on the table and enter then, with an advantage. You can start counting in the middle of a shoe and get useful information for betting and playing. I doubt very much your mid-she cover is causing your negative sessions.
It's not really hurting you. Calculate your actual expected loss (mentioned above already) by playing those hands and you will see it's negligible. From what I'm reading you had close to 10 losing sessions, each session half an hour long? 10x0.5 = a 5 hour slump? I wish my "negative slides" were that small.
From an undisclosed year of an undisclosed AP's career log:
It takes a little bit more patience to get out of a 400 hour slump, but when you grind through enough sessions these types of things are inevitable. As always just focus on the long-term, and don't let anything in between slip you up as long as you know your game is strong.
From an undisclosed year of an undisclosed AP's career log:
It takes a little bit more patience to get out of a 400 hour slump, but when you grind through enough sessions these types of things are inevitable. As always just focus on the long-term, and don't let anything in between slip you up as long as you know your game is strong.
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The Stuff of Nightmares
That chart is pure horror.
Aside from the obvious cliff-dive, there are those first few hundred hours, where the cruel psychological set-up takes place. One would be led to think "Hey, at least I'm not losing, and the variance isn't as bad as I have heard - I can handle this!"
Then comes the cosmic smackdown. :whip:
That chart is pure horror.
Aside from the obvious cliff-dive, there are those first few hundred hours, where the cruel psychological set-up takes place. One would be led to think "Hey, at least I'm not losing, and the variance isn't as bad as I have heard - I can handle this!"
Then comes the cosmic smackdown. :whip:
thanks for the input everyone. i am focused on the long-term, but since my sessions are so short i feel like playing mid-shoe without knowing the count has a bigger effect on me. actually the last 4 sessions i had entered mid-shoe and lost my limit before the fresh shoe even started. this has never happened to me before. i've logged in probably just 30+ hrs for the year so far. i do not play much... just for fun when i am off.
i'm sure over the long run things will even out somewhat. however for the time being i think i will not enter mid-shoe to avoid any further unwanted disadvantage. what is the use of starting blind in a shoe when it can ruin my EV even more especially when i know what i am doing can hurt me... at least in the short term. as things fluctuate back up (hopefully!) i can adjust my play.
i'm sure over the long run things will even out somewhat. however for the time being i think i will not enter mid-shoe to avoid any further unwanted disadvantage. what is the use of starting blind in a shoe when it can ruin my EV even more especially when i know what i am doing can hurt me... at least in the short term. as things fluctuate back up (hopefully!) i can adjust my play.
Enter mid-shoe when the count warrants a wong-in, or if you have a large enough bankroll (which you haven't stated) then really try a play all situation. You really need to have your mind set on the long term goal of gradually increasing your BR. If you try these hit and run sessions betting red, you won't see a great improvement in your BR for a long period of time, especially if these sessions are a mere 30 minutes to an hour. Try to grind the table for a little longer and try to play atleast one good shoe, regardless of whether you suffer from good or bad variance. The more of these advantageous shoes you play and the longer you play them = more units.
Best of luck!
Good cards to you.
Best of luck!
Good cards to you.
:laugh: I hear you there. Count gets to such a rare high number, catches me off guard, heart races, get flustered, and is hard to quickly calculate to such an above norm TC high of ~5. When this happens, it's usually so far at the end of the shoe, near cut card, I just keep the max bet with a good estimate of the count. Good enough estimate to damn well know it won't drop below the max bet point.
For the original post: As far as waiting for shoe, I like to wong in, but feel I stand out hovering by the table before entering. I think it's ok to do this at the first entry of play, looking like a possible newbie player curious about the game and hesitant to jump in. But when the casino is not busy, doing this over and over again, one may stand out?
When playing all, I think it's ok to wait for the next shuffle as others have mentioned. People do it all the time. Not sure how much of an EV impact it is playing say half the shoe w/ an unknown count? I use to enter unkown counts, mid-shoe as well. But with the small amount of time I played, and small number of times counts seem to be positive, I was concerned that those unknown counts may have been negative. With this concern, and wanting to be as accurate as possible for record keeping, I started entering fresh shoes only.
For the fact that your sessions are short, I don't think you need that sort of cover. You won't look out of the norm if you wait for a new shoe.
For the original post: As far as waiting for shoe, I like to wong in, but feel I stand out hovering by the table before entering. I think it's ok to do this at the first entry of play, looking like a possible newbie player curious about the game and hesitant to jump in. But when the casino is not busy, doing this over and over again, one may stand out?
When playing all, I think it's ok to wait for the next shuffle as others have mentioned. People do it all the time. Not sure how much of an EV impact it is playing say half the shoe w/ an unknown count? I use to enter unkown counts, mid-shoe as well. But with the small amount of time I played, and small number of times counts seem to be positive, I was concerned that those unknown counts may have been negative. With this concern, and wanting to be as accurate as possible for record keeping, I started entering fresh shoes only.
For the fact that your sessions are short, I don't think you need that sort of cover. You won't look out of the norm if you wait for a new shoe.
Yes you'll stand out. Outside of LV and AC, how often can you do this? Doing ANYTHING over and over again will get you in trouble. Mix it up.
Also this is another good use for the phone, you can pretend to have a conversation while hovering around a table. Ah the phone, after the wheelchair, the AP's best friend. :grin:
A few other things you can do to count down a table, without looking like your counting down that table.
What difference does it make if the cards are in the discard tray or still in the shoe?
Having said that, always wondered if I step into a mid-shoe, and immediately low cards start coming out, if this is some sort of indicator if I've stepped into a shoe where the high cards are already out. But this is probably fallacious reasoning too.
Also this is another good use for the phone, you can pretend to have a conversation while hovering around a table. Ah the phone, after the wheelchair, the AP's best friend. :grin:
A few other things you can do to count down a table, without looking like your counting down that table.
What difference does it make if the cards are in the discard tray or still in the shoe?
Having said that, always wondered if I step into a mid-shoe, and immediately low cards start coming out, if this is some sort of indicator if I've stepped into a shoe where the high cards are already out. But this is probably fallacious reasoning too.
Effect of midshoe entry (not back counting) on card counting that shoe.
You can enter and count from midshoe but all the cards already in the discard tray must be viewed as behind the cut card. All deck estimates must subtract that portion of the discard tray to get your true count. You are just getting horrible penetration on the shoe that you entered midshoe because the already played cards are the same as the cards behind the cut card.
You can enter and count from midshoe but all the cards already in the discard tray must be viewed as behind the cut card. All deck estimates must subtract that portion of the discard tray to get your true count. You are just getting horrible penetration on the shoe that you entered midshoe because the already played cards are the same as the cards behind the cut card.