Is this +EV?

[SleightOfHand]

Hey guys, heres a little bit of a stats problem if you are up for it. At all the station casinos, there is a progressive bad beat jackpot (click link for the rules). Not only does the progressive amount increase over time, the qualifying hands decrease as well. As the rules show, regardless of the progressive amount, the winner of the hand will receive $20k and the loser receives $30k. The progressive money is distributed to all the players at every poker room involved in the bad beat. The amount varies from $200-$700 depending on how busy it is (fewer players = larger shares). There is also a $250 bonus for getting a royal flush.

Anyway, I am just wondering if this game gets to +EV, or is it's only value in attracting the fish? What usually happens is that once the qualifying hand drops to quad 2s, the poker room starts booming with the locals trying to hit the bad beat.

The question is rather unimportant to me, as the bad beat rake costs me ~$3-4/hr, which is nothing compared to the value of more fish, but I think it would be interesting to know.

Edit: Reading through the rules, there is also a mini bad beat explained at the bottom of this page

 

[Sucker]

There are simply too many factors involved here for there to be ONE answer to this question. The first thing you would have to consider is how high of stakes you plan on playing, in relation to the $3-$4 per hour that it APPEARS to be costing you to play. Perhaps it's NOT costing that much; perhaps it's even GAINING EV for you!

Why?
The simple FACT that this jackpot exists causes players to play hands that they shouldn't be playing. If there are enough "jackpot chasers" in the game (and I've found that this usually IS true), it can and will cause the value of the game ITSELF to go up by sometimes MORE than $4/hr over a game with no jackpot at all.

Granted; depending upon the size of the jackpot, a certain amount of jackpot chasing IS correct, but in the real world, most players are WAY too liberal with this concept.

 

[tthree]

I played at the Green Valley Ranch many moons ago. The bad beat qualifying hand was in the better full house range. It was weird having a great hand and hoping you were beat. Unfortunately I won the 2 hands I had that were qualifiers.

 

[Gamblor]

Why?
The simple FACT that this jackpot exists causes players to play hands that they shouldn't be playing. If there are enough "jackpot chasers" in the game (and I've found that this usually IS true), it can and will cause the value of the game ITSELF to go up by sometimes MORE than $4/hr over a game with no jackpot at all.

Very good point. Also keep in mind that you'll have to play differently and expect a different range of cards from other players.

Without a jackpot, I'm not remotely concerned about the player absorbing big pre-flop raises, and the board shows up 4Q 5D JC, and I have a set. Of course the 9 shows up, and we have this idiot winning a huge pot with 67 suited. Very rarely will you see this in a non-jackpot game, things like this are somewhat common in jackpot games.

 

[FLASH1296]

A few years ago I taught my (new) wife to play Texas Hold Em Poker.

We took a trip to Eastern Florida, planning on playing poker daily for the week.

She hit a bad beat jackpot when her Quad Jacks were [K]racked by a Spade straight flush to the King.

The bad news was that this was one of the smallest B B J' s in most of the staff's memory.

The good news was that it was a Tribal Enterprise so tax forms were not much of a consideration.

Her end was almost precisely $25,000 in cash.

My cumulative record for my wintertime poker playing in Florida is:
net winner: 18 days: . . . net loser: 0 days. ... Not boasting here. I am not all that good.
It is simply very hard to exaggerate how poorly most peeps play poker in the Sunshine State.
There are only two (2) kinds of poker players there ---- "Maniacs" and "Rocks" !

 

[CasinoExaminer]

There are only two (2) kinds of poker players there ---- "Maniacs" and "Rocks" !

There are three types of poker players, 1) Maniacs 2) Rocks and 3) Players with the wisdom to know the difference.

 

[SleightOfHand]

There are three types of poker players, 1) Maniacs 2) Rocks and 3) Players with the wisdom to know the difference.

Lol there are way more types than those 3.

 

[PonyPrincess]

The real question SHOULD be, "Is this MORE +EV than if there was NO bbj rake" and the answer is no. Besides the intangible aspect of more people going out of their way when it gets really big you have to factor in that that the casino takes some amount out for "GRATUITY" or management fee's or whatever, it's all bullshit. It's just a fancy way to grab more rake.

Also you have to realize that as a good player you're substantially less likely to hit the big payouts.


Wait, actually I guess it's like a lot of jackpots. Just wait for the idiots to pay the extra rake to grind it up and when the jackpot gets huge swoop in, and the fact that is pays out to whole room is less variance. Wizard of Odds site has a table for often a BBJ hits based on the rules and qualifying hands.

Or to guarantee it's +EV get a team of 10 people (or 100) fill up an entire table and everyone folds every hand (or take turns raising and everyone folds to be less RIDICULOUSLY conspicuous) and you'll never pay a rake and just wait until jackpot hits and pocket the $200-700 per person. If you wanted to get really in depth you could make sure each player limps in with a hand that can hit the bad beat and just check it down each time, but make sure the qualifier is low enough because you're paying at least $1-2 rake minimum each time.

It also helps to have a team because you can play super fast with the only goal of hitting the jackpot.