Is this possible...?

neogeogsx

New Member
First time poster here.

I'll just introduce myself a bit, I really started gambling 6 or 7 years ago when I like most "discovered" the martingale system. It was after watching roullete for a few moments when I realized I could beat the casino. Granted my first time trying it I lucked out and turned $75.00 into $1500.00 It's amazing how that happened the first time, and I don't think it ever happened since. For a long time after that I was suffering the gambler's fallacy, I would watch craps, roullete, baccarat for a series of something so I could bet against it. Like most I got burned.

Over the last few years I've really implemented Oscar's Grind. I keep records of the games I play, wins losses. Always with the intent of studying them later to see if I could've done something different. After a long 14 hour day at Baccarat 2 weeks ago, I lost my bankroll. Went home and went through the 16 shoes I tracked and realized at the end of the day, there were 120 bankers ahead of player. I kicked myself, why didn't I just flat bet. Hell even $5.00 would've turned into $600. Even after commission I still would've been up quite a bit. I went through some other records. Here is what I found.

I keep track of shoes, at the casino I play at they deal 8 deck in mini bac. One shoe is blue, the next is red. For no particular reason I mark down which color shoe that was dealt. The next day I went back and kept track of another 14 shoes. this time, there wasn't a significant amount of bankers. but when I split up the shoes, all the blue shoes had alot more bankers, and the red always favored player, they were consistent through the day. I knew that it was more than likely a fluke. but like the gambler I am, I went back the next day with a bank of $100. starting out betting $5.00, with a total of 20 units my goal was to make $100 and then flat bet with $10 until I was up to $300. everytime I made $100 I increased my flat bet $5.00. at the end of the session "12 hours" I had turned my $100.00 into $4,950.00.

I'm seriously stoked, for the last few days I haven't played much I've just watched the cards. I don't really follow trends, but I do notice that the shoes even after they are cut, and shuffled, tend to have the same ending results, I see them shift and eventually even turn towards the other side, is this a fluke? Does anyone else see it. My 12 hour day was long, but well worth it, I would like to go back in and start with $1000.00 and bet $50 a hand after observing a few shoes and seeing if they stay consistent.

any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Thanks for making me smile. I can't believe someone would take the time to write a post like this.Please keep in touch.
 

neogeogsx

New Member
well, I know this is funny to most. I'm sure it's just been luck on my part. Honestly, I just need someone else to tell me that it was luck, and the shoes don't normally tend to do the same thing. I'm trying to stay away from the casino for awhile, I'm tired of the house edge, I've been looking for so long for a way to beat em. A few months ago I decided to learn a count, I haven't practiced nearly as much as I should. I've got the hi lo down, I've backcounted a few times in a live enviroment, and still don't feel comfortable with it. After a few more weeks of practice, maybe a few months I plan on giving it a shot.

I live close to st. louis and we actually have quite a few casinos in the area, pretty soon, we'll have our 7th one. There is a particular casino that has $2.00 bj tables in the morning and as long as you are there you'll be grandfathered in when the limit gets raised to $5.00. All the dealers and pit crew know me well. I've sat at bj tables for hours learning my horrible lessons about systems. I know that the casino crew knows how I operate and I pose no threat. I think it's actually perfect camoflauge for the day I step in and try counting, I just don't want to do it now and risk being caught for some stupid newbie mistakes.

From my understanding, your hourly win rate is about 2 times your average bet correct? I'm sure it differs with your spread, and even the count your using. But is it almost safe to assume, that if I step into a 6d 17s game with 75% pen that I can expect around $4.00 an hour win rate? I don't plan on playing this way, but I have thought about sitting at the $2.00 tables, playing everyhand and throwing in some bigger bets like $10, 12, 15 when the count gets good. I'm positive the casino wouldn't even notice, since their used to seeing me playing martingale, d'alembert, oscar's grind and noticing the random changes in my bet size. I don't know, I do know I'm not ready yet, still need practice, I'm just day dreaming a bit.
 

la_dee_daa

Well-Known Member
yes.. yes it was luck...
but good luck on the counting i got into counting a little while ago and have hit the casinos a couple times but not for very long. i have learnt alot from this website and others but probably a good idea to get a book on blackjack to learn more.

welcome!
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
The chances of turning $100 into $4950 using Oscars Grind in 12 hours are about the same as a diamond meteor crashing thru my window as I type this.
Please at least try to figure the math before you make up a post.
 

zengrifter

Banned
shadroch said:
The chances of turning $100 into $4950 using Oscars Grind in 12 hours are about the same as a diamond meteor crashing thru my window as I type this.
Please at least try to figure the math before you make up a post.
I beleive him, stranger things have happened... to me! zg
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
neogeogsx said:
well, I know this is funny to most. I'm sure it's just been luck on my part. Honestly, I just need someone else to tell me that it was luck, and the shoes don't normally tend to do the same thing. I'm trying to stay away from the casino for awhile, I'm tired of the house edge,
.
staying away from the casino is an excellent idea! luck alone isn't enough to beat the house edge.
neogeogsx said:
I've been looking for so long for a way to beat em. A few months ago I decided to learn a count, I haven't practiced nearly as much as I should. I've got the hi lo down, I've backcounted a few times in a live enviroment, and still don't feel comfortable with it. After a few more weeks of practice, maybe a few months I plan on giving it a shot.
.
even with counting the house may still be victorious.
neogeogsx said:
I live close to st. louis and we actually have quite a few casinos in the area, pretty soon, we'll have our 7th one. There is a particular casino that has $2.00 bj tables in the morning and as long as you are there you'll be grandfathered in when the limit gets raised to $5.00. All the dealers and pit crew know me well. I've sat at bj tables for hours learning my horrible lessons about systems. I know that the casino crew knows how I operate and I pose no threat. I think it's actually perfect camoflauge for the day I step in and try counting, I just don't want to do it now and risk being caught for some stupid newbie mistakes.

From my understanding, your hourly win rate is about 2 times your average bet correct? I'm sure it differs with your spread, and even the count your using. But is it almost safe to assume, that if I step into a 6d 17s game with 75% pen that I can expect around $4.00 an hour win rate? I don't plan on playing this way, but I have thought about sitting at the $2.00 tables, playing everyhand and throwing in some bigger bets like $10, 12, 15 when the count gets good. I'm positive the casino wouldn't even notice, since their used to seeing me playing martingale, d'alembert, oscar's grind and noticing the random changes in my bet size. I don't know, I do know I'm not ready yet, still need practice,
.
i think you are correct. you are not ready yet. study card counting more if you like while you are staying away from losing your money in the casino. then read over what you have written above. you will find that it doesn't express a thorough or accurate enough understanding at this poiint. frankly it sounds as if you need to learn how to bridal what appears to be a prediliction for gambling so that it can not harm you or those that you love. i am a gambler. i have rules i follow with respect to gambling. they are as follows:
health, fitness, rest needs, recreation, financial obligatins, social life, family life and work must take priority before gambling. only ever gamble with money that you can afford to lose with out compromising any of the above mentioned priorities. afford means now and the future.
neogeogsx said:
I'm just day dreaming a bit.
a dream is a nobel thing. dreams represent what is important to you and as far as i'm concerned there is nothing more important than that. may all your dreams be worthy of your life.
 

neogeogsx

New Member
shadroch said:
The chances of turning $100 into $4950 using Oscars Grind in 12 hours are about the same as a diamond meteor crashing thru my window as I type this.
Please at least try to figure the math before you make up a post.
Then you really aren't going to believe this.

I didn't turn $100 into $4950 using oscars grind. I did it flat betting.

I started with $100, I flat betted $5.00. After a few hours of only betting on bank, I was up $100, then I started betting $10.00 and so forth. Every time I made $100 I pressed my flat bet up another unit. There was quite a bit of grinding through most shoes. It just so happened to be that the banker was heavily favored throughout the whole day. I'll admit I've gotten pretty excited after all this, and for awhile I thought maybe, just maybe I can keep doing this. I went back 2 days later, observed the tables all day, and realized that on this particular day there wasn't any particular strengths in only betting on banker, adding the numbers up I could see that it was almost 50/50. But after observing for a good part of the day, I again noticed that even though when I add up all the decisions I tracked, it came up about even. One shoe consistently had a higher amount of bankers, and the other more players. I don't have time to just go to the casino and track shoes. So I thought I would take the time to ask on a public forum, if anyone else notices this, or is it just a fluke.

I posted this in the voodoo section for a reason, I know baccarat is a negative expectation game. As ignorant as it makes me sound, as stupid as most systems are. I want to believe negative expectation games can be beat, in what you would consider the long run.

With the flat betting system I was using, could it work?

The very first time I tried it I really did make almost $5,000. I don't expect to do that again, or at least often, I admit that I was lucky. But from what I observed, I could've done it the day before after looking at the shoes I kept track of. And if I would've followed the shoe trends I saw 2 days later and bet on banker on the shoes that seemed heavy with it, and bet player on the shoes that seemed to favor that, I could've done it again. I know hindsight is 20/20. But I'm looking at it like this, say I take that $4950. and break it down into $100 sessions over the next 49 days. Will I lose my 20 units flat betting every day? Will I never make $5000 again? can I not make more?

Most people don't do this, and I don't blame them, but I've been that guy tracking a roulette wheel, and sadly I've even been that guy at a craps table writing down pass and don't pass results. If anyone has ever done this, and looked at the results at the end of the day, here's what you'll see.
in roullete for example:

betting on black or red at the end of the day
you can see a really big spike in either one, or they could be close in comparison. but after a long day of tracking the game, it's possible, really possible for say "black to have one over 100 decisions more than red"

so if someone just happens to go in and bet on black all day and ended up being on the favored side, flat betting and not taking account for the 0's, he could've made around $500. now if that same person would've pressed their bets up after being able to press it by 20 units of something, say the player wins 2 bets, he's up $10, he could actually put on a .50cent unit and continually done so for every $10 he wins. I'm not going to do the math, but if the player was lucky enough to win 100 more decisions in an even money game, and never be down more than 20 units, I think that would make him several thousands of dollars with only $100 initial bankroll. In one day.

Every game at the end of your session will normally have a spike in one direction or another, maybe not as drastic as 100 extra wins. it is gambling, but if you are on the right side and implement the best progressive strategies. I don't see why it can't be done in the long run.

Even if this system only works one out of 30 or 40 sessions, it's still a winner.
am I right?
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
The chances of turning $100 into $4950 using Oscars Grind in 12 hours are about the same as a diamond meteor crashing thru my window as I type this.
Please at least try to figure the math before you make up a post.
Are you objecting to the 12 hours or the dollars lol?

I mean if he re-sized his units to his roll, more or less having a constant 20 unit roll, not really that unlikely at all I wouldn't think.

Like after he wins 4 $5 units and now has $120, start betting $6, etc.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
neogeogsx said:
Even if this system only works one out of 30 or 40 sessions, it's still a winner.am I right?
Well I assume you mean once you got to $200 and starting betting $10 units, now you'd only need to be ahead by 10 units before you starting betting 15 and then only 7 units ahead etc.

Anyway, it's not that hard to figure out the chances of being ahead after so many hands if you're worried about how often you'll lose your starting 20 units after 100 hands or 1000 hands.
 

zengrifter

Banned
neogeogsx said:
Even if this system only works one out of 30 or 40 sessions, it's still a winner. am I right?
Sure kid, thats why we call it voooodooooo, cause its powerful stuff.
All ya gotta do is beleive! And tithe. zg
 
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