Blackjack Pro Explains How Ignoring
Odds Cost the Falcons the Super Bowl
Every decision in blackjack can be dictated by simple math: There’s always a right and wrong answer. The average blackjack player loses about three percent of the money they put on the table—but if you play basic strategy perfectly, you reduce the casino’s edge to about 0.5 percent. Still, even if they know the right thing to do, very few people actually play perfect basic strategy. Why? Because humans are subject to cognitive bias. That’s what brought the Falcons down tonight.
It’s more complex than blackjack, of course, but there is a basic strategy for football coaching. If you analyze the thousands of football games played in the last 10 years, you can devise a set of rules that almost always lead to a win. Computers do the hard work: They take all the possible situations and calculate the probability of each outcome. A coach could input possession, down, distance, and score and come up with one best decision for the team at that moment. All you need to do is follow the math. But, like in blackjack, it can be hard to keep focus on time-tested statistical strategies under stress.
MORE: https://www.wired.com/2017/02/blackjack-superstar-explains-odds-historic-patriots-win/
Odds Cost the Falcons the Super Bowl
Every decision in blackjack can be dictated by simple math: There’s always a right and wrong answer. The average blackjack player loses about three percent of the money they put on the table—but if you play basic strategy perfectly, you reduce the casino’s edge to about 0.5 percent. Still, even if they know the right thing to do, very few people actually play perfect basic strategy. Why? Because humans are subject to cognitive bias. That’s what brought the Falcons down tonight.
It’s more complex than blackjack, of course, but there is a basic strategy for football coaching. If you analyze the thousands of football games played in the last 10 years, you can devise a set of rules that almost always lead to a win. Computers do the hard work: They take all the possible situations and calculate the probability of each outcome. A coach could input possession, down, distance, and score and come up with one best decision for the team at that moment. All you need to do is follow the math. But, like in blackjack, it can be hard to keep focus on time-tested statistical strategies under stress.
MORE: https://www.wired.com/2017/02/blackjack-superstar-explains-odds-historic-patriots-win/