I wonder if anyone would be willing to give me some feed if they have had an 80 percent loss of BR after 100 hrs of play within a 10 hr period must be fairly normal, I hope. The only tangible substantiation of my play is the more hours I put into the game the more authentic my EV becomes I suppose. I am also closer to my N0 I would think. Regardless of how I got to about 1 unit per hour, either up or down, I have not established anything beyond knowing it appears I am not a seriously fast losing player at least. Sorry to ramble, at least I am not squabbling with others.
Join the downers club
- Thread starter Dopple
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Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
If I lost 80% of my backroll in 100 hours of play at any point I would quit forever, because something is obviously very wrong. If I lost it in 10 hours...yikes...would do the same..
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
Uhhh what? Sorry guy...I have no idea what you are saying, as usual.Dopple said:
I guess I would say refer to my original post above.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I have read Dopple's posts #1 & #3 several times and I have no clue what he is saying either. 
If I had to guess, I would guess that he started with a 100 unit BR, ran that up very significantly, and then lost 80% of that new total. IF that is what he is saying that is not exactly losing 80% of BR. But whatever?
When I have shared some of my experiences over the years I have done so using real numbers....dollar amounts. And I have gotten grief from people for doing that. But that is the only way to make it crystal clear what you are talking about. You start using 'coded' substitutes like percentages or units and it all turns to a big guessing game.
If I had to guess, I would guess that he started with a 100 unit BR, ran that up very significantly, and then lost 80% of that new total. IF that is what he is saying that is not exactly losing 80% of BR. But whatever?
When I have shared some of my experiences over the years I have done so using real numbers....dollar amounts. And I have gotten grief from people for doing that. But that is the only way to make it crystal clear what you are talking about. You start using 'coded' substitutes like percentages or units and it all turns to a big guessing game.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
You are kind of a dick aren't you LC Larry?LC Larry said:
I haven't seen anyone here blaming shuffler for any loses.
I guess a couple people on various forums have from time to time, vented a bit, blaming everything from "Chinese cards, to possibly shufflers, I don't remember, but not in serious discussions here or anywhere else.Personally, the incident I brought to light last year and named the casino, occurred at one of my top casinos. It is my 2nd all-time money maker and every year in my top 3 or 4 earners. The year of the incident, it was still one of my top earners. So, I wasn't blaming anything, I know how variance works. I just shared something I found to be abnormal, as an experienced player will notice and how I looked into it further and what I found. You can chose to not believe whatever you want....what the F do I care.
Actually Larry 2-3 hrs at the Sweaty Spaniard opening w/ 10 the 5-50 to drop 800 in 2.5 hr come out to over 2'SD if I was correct so I wanted to cry foul but CVCX says that the chance of that is actually pretty high so I don't know. Kewl and Count just simply the history is meaningless but one detail I wanted to see if I had company with is after reaching a new ATH of 2700up after 90 hrs. if a 2200 drop in 10 hrs is something the record keepers have seen playing a mix of 5-225 heads up 6D H17 RSA DAS the double game above and others up to 10-300 at DD. Sorry been busy thanks for feedback all dollars above startup money no in equation. That should be clear I hope.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Ok good, so this is a case that sharing the numbers help a great deal. Makes it easy to see what you are talking about, without trying to figure out the code of units and percentages.Dopple said:
(I am not picking on you here dopple).So a few things immediately stand out with out even looking at sims or stand deviations and such.
1.) you are playing several very different spread and max bets, just as I do. You have max bets of 50, 225, 300 listed. That alone plays havoc with variance and adds to your swings. That is the negative. There are some big positives but I don't recommend playing this way unless you are well funded and able to handle the 'extra" variance both financially and mentally.
2.) Losing 2200 while playing 225 and 300 max bets, is nothing. That is 7-10 max bets. I do that in 20 minutes at times.
3.) specific to the EC spread and results, dropping $800 in 2.5 hours with max bet of $50. Again that is 16 max bets. Not an enormous number. The EC DD game is a decent game, between 60-67% pen depending on dealer and you can often get play heads up or one other player. THIS is going to result in fairly frequent max bet opportunities (depending on at what point you max bet). Losing 16 max bets, while unpleasant, doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me. But again, you have to be funded and mentally prepared for that kind of swing.
I don't care what they say about you Kewl, you are cool. At EC they have a slot in the discard box so the cut is set the same all the time. I budget myself just $500 per year for cards but as long as I am ahead I will keep playing, I will have to trim down the bets a bit or Wong more. I am kind of glad I lost because I can get off my high tower. Next go around I will have learned but the hardest thing to control is your emotions when going through the swings, I start smoking, drink too much and want everything is sight when I am on a winning streak. Please send money.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Yes they use a notch. But no it does not result in the exact same penetration every time. Next time you are there, pay attention to the dealer holding the pack of cards as they insert the cut card using the notch. They often aren't holding the pack flush against the end of the shoe. This can result in penetration varying up to as much as about 70%. But usually it is 60-62%.Dopple said:
Also the time of day matters. Just after new cards have been introduced, that notch cut will result in a little deeper penetration than after the cards get used and naturally spread out a bit. This second point is fairly minor though. Does happen to be one of my favorite times to play there though, not specifically for the thinner cards just introduced, but less crowded and can often play heads up or with one other player.
What do you think there comfort level would be at that fine establishment Kewl? If I was up just a couple hundred I would think you could feel the room start to heat up. I would not try to push it to 500 at that shop unless it happened real quick and you ran for the door.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I don't think I can or want to get into this publicly. I play this store regularly and already say way to much about it. I also don't play the stakes you are talking about so I can't say with certainty what would or wouldn't draw heat and attention, although I could guess based on my familiarity with this location and their attitudes.Dopple said:
I will just say a few things not specific to this location that may help with longevity.
Specifically to DD, spread both ways. That means don't start off the top with minimum wager like you do shoes. You can afford to do this with DD and it really makes your spread appear smaller and increases longevity. And ESPECIALLY if you are playing through more than one bet cycle. DO NOT RETREAT BACK TO MINIMUM wager after placing max bet or large wager.
Keeping sessions short has a number of benefits. You minimize information that you show in one sitting. In this situation, you keep wins down. Better to have many small wins than one big one at a place that is sweaty.
There are many things that go into determining whether you are exceeding any kind of tolerance or comfort level, not just spread and amounts (level) of you play. At a place where the danger is really from the pit rather than from above, is when an act has any value. You need to convince the pit that you are just a gambler, whatever stakes you are playing. Most places the danger is from above and any "act" is lost. Not so on these sweaty places that the danger is from the pit.