Journal Revisited

[CanKen]

Back on July 23 Mayor posted contents of an e-mail I sent him describing 3+ years of play, and a graph of the data. I had been quite successful over the preceding eight months and was probably somewhat over impressed with my results.
V-man posted a reply on August 18, pointing out, quite rightly, that it was mainly luck that put me that far to the right on the normal curve.
The next four weeks after my post brought me back to BJ earth. Fifteen (15!) consecutive losing sessions, some big, some small, cost me two thirds of the eight month's gain. I knew that V-man's comments were valid, that I was way above my theoretical expectation,and that there would be setbacks. But I didn't expect to get hit so hard and for so long.
I can almost understand why some players begin to think they are being cheated, or that card counting doesn't work, or that computer derived playing strategy is wrong. But I'm sure I'm not being cheated; I believe in the math; and I'll stick with it.
The sometimes extreme variance inherent in the game cannot be avoided no matter what J. Patterson, J. Patrick, and those who call us "math-weenies", say or try to sell. The only way to deal with the variance is with knowledge, skill, patience, and the hard part, which is acceptance of the inevitable losing streaks.
My BR is now recovering slowly. I'm still ahead, much closer to a reasonable
expectation, and enjoying the game.
Thanks to V-man and Mayor for their interest.

P.S. I'm curious - has any reader had a losing streak longer than 15 in a row?

CanKen

 

[wong out]

I dont know about 15 in a row; I never checked. Session win/losses dont mean anything. The only relevant thing is your ev/variance and hours played. I have had losing streaks that have lasted well into the hundreds of hours range but over time I have hit ev the best i can tell. Many experienced players that I have met over time focus too much on short term results. A guy a few weeks ago crowed about a $500/hr win rate since the beginning of the year; I say nice but dont worry we are all headed for ev land in the long run; of course some of us have more fun in getting there! Dont focus on the wins/losses; just bet within your br, play good games, be aggressive and you'll get yours.

good luck!

wong out

 

[The Mayor]

>P.S. I'm curious - has any reader had a losing streak longer than 15 in a row?

I assume you mean 15 days in a row, rather than 15 hands in a row.

I once lost 17 hands in a row. Fortunately they were all min bets.

I once went through a period of 19 days in a row without a winning day above $100 (and mostly losing days, I think 15 out of 19 were losing).

Yes, it can get ugly. Thanks for sharing, your comments are a good reality check.

--Mayor

 

[CanKen]

To clarify, I had fifteen consecutive losing sessions, on different days, over a period of about four weeks. You begin to think that you will never win again.

CK

 

[gambler]

Several weeks ago, I wanted to post on this board(but didn`t): Need help, I AM WINNING! Doubling my BR within /70 hours, 14 consecutive winning sessions.
Incredible experiance not to loose anymore. There is nothing more boring, than leaving every day the casino with winnings.

 

[V-man]

Welcome to the wonderful and yet mysterious game of BJ!
Card counting isn't easy. As someone had mentioned before, if it were easy, everyone would be doing it, and the casinos would've killed the game long time ago.
One of my friend never believe in card counting. He told me that with an average of about .5% advantage, how can you make a difference? mind you though, he play perfect Basic Strategy (at least there is some good thing he believes in) for any session he would vary his bets based on his 'feeling' rather than Bet By The Count. At one time he hit a lucky streak that last about a few months (playing every week, twice a week), and up a few Grand. At that time, I predicted that he was going to loose back all his winnings plus some of his own BR! And yes he eventually did give back.
I know another fellow, who played his own BS (stand A7 against ten, do not hit 12 against 13, etc ...) probably about 1% house edge. He told me last year, he made up more that 10k, playing the same casino, hitting about 3-4 times a week, for about 3-4 hour sessions. But eventually he lost back all the winnings plus quite a few from his own pocket! Now he only go to the casino maybe once a month.
My point is that the long run in this game is really long. For the fellow ploppy above, even playing at 1% house edge he was still able to win for a whole year (he put in maybe 700-1000 hours!). Now let's view the scenario as a counter's point of view, ie as a counter, let's assume we have an overall advantage of about 1% edge (tough to find these days!), we turn the table around, we are now the casino, and the casino becomes the ploppy playing against us. Playing for 500 hours, we could still be loosing to the ploppy.

Last year, when I started learning how to count at the BJ table, I hit a winning streak that took me way above my EV. At the time I told my wife that I will be giving back some of my winnings, there is no way I could be winning that much. And eventually, I did give back, all of my winnings, plus some of my pocket hard earned dollars! I started to question about my ability in counting, my wife started to question my brain power, she said to me: "Honey, are you sure you were not counting in reverse! counting the negative cards as positive and vice versa. And bet large when it's really negative?". I'm not smart but I don't think I was that dumb! Mistakes do happen, especially with a session long into the night, but it is rather like, instead of a running count of +10, I would be mistaken for +12. There is a difference in mistakes but it can't be so dramatic that I lost my shirt! I started to loose interest in BJ sites like this, cardcounter.com, bj21.com, rge21.com, etc ... What's the sense in reading someone else postings bragging about their winnings while I'm still loosing my shirt! After a while reflecting about what I have gone through, my play, my BJ conditions, the number of hours I put in, etc ... I then realize that with the BJ conditions I'm playing, I'm still in the short run of the game. For now, I just have to say this to myself: "Eventually, I'll get my money back and plus some more of the casinos. Eventually, I'll hit a winning streak again, and this time I will hit the casinos hard, I promise."
This game ain't easy, with all the mathematics proven, with all the computer simulations formulated, but yet we are still human, we play the game as a human being, not as a robot or a computer, and as a human being, we have our own emotion. It's tough to get by this emotion. I once enjoyed a winning streak, and during a shoe with very negative counts, I'm supposed to put out my minimum bet, but I kept winning hands after hand, finally, I talked to myself: "F... the book, I'm going to bet larger regardless of the negative counts!" I put out 4 units and lucky me, I won quite a bit at the end of the shoe.

Regarding the continuous loosing sessions, I don't look at the relationship between the sessions directly but rather as a 'trend'. I noticed that since the beginning of the last december, I started the downward trend. I did not loose continuosly 15 sessions but I would loose maybe 8 continuous sessions and then win a couple of small wins and then start the downward trend again. The mysterious thing is that I seemed to loose most of my large bets and win many of my small bets! Go figure!

 

[CanKen]

V-man:

I got a big laugh out of your wife's comments. I'm sure my wife is thinking the same things, only she hasn't said them out loud - yet.

CK