Just joined. So... now what do I do?

[nickelfish]

Hi there. I'm new.
As such, I tried to find a good place to start. I was unsuccessful both perusing the various forums and with the search function. I just couldn't seem to find a place where us newbies could go to ask our stupid questions and earn the scorn of more senior members. Hell, I couldn't even decide which board would be best suited for this (I settled here. If I'm wrong, be gentle. It's my first day).

I recently got the bug and I've started working towards the goal of (hopefully) paying my tuition from the tables. I've been buying up books and slowly digesting their contents, taking notes, and generally being a nerd. I've been learning basic as outlined by Thorp. Still though, I'm at that point that I'm sure many of you were at when you first started: I'm essentially lost in the woods. I've got ten million questions and every answer seems to spawn ten million more.

I get that I'll have to pour out the sweat and blood practicing with basic, hi-lo, etc. I have been. I get that I'll need to research and find things on my own. I'm not asking for a golden ticket, just some friendly shoves in the right directions. Maybe a place on the forum where us freshies can look stupid without ruffling too many feathers would be conducive? It may be right out there and I just missed it.

Thank in advance.

 

[tthree]

There is no need to pay "tuition" in the casino. Dont play until you are ready. Proper preparation takes about 9 months of hard work. Depend on many variables there is about 3 months range on either side of this. If you have money to waste experience in the casino can help you assess where you are. If you are cautious about using your skills to early and conservative about using your perceived advantage you should expect to make a little money.

A big mistake by newbies as well as experienced players is to try to squeeze every drop of advantage they think exists. If your TC estimates are high you over bet your advantage which is an expensive error due to increased variance. It also has you using indices prematurely which is even more expensive and can result in losing ALL advantage from the index. A positive index will have a big bet out and the early portion of its use is more frequent and at a smaller advantage. Use before the threshold is actually reached has an even higher frequency of use and has a disadvantage when done. Sometimes a big disadvantage.

In THE THEORY OF BLACKJACK by Griffin chapter 7, On The Likely Consequences Of Errors In Card Counting Systems, this idea is discussed in detail. If not read carefully people dont realize how severe the penalty is for using indices to aggressively (error of employing index to soon or over estimating the TC) for nonlinear gain indices. Many indices are fairly linear in terms of gain and for some of these this penalty is smaller but still costs you money.

Enough errors of this type can make counting a losing proposition. The largest expected advantage is perfect use of indices. Errors mentioned above (over use of indices and over betting) cost a lot of your advantage. Errors in the other direction are far less costly.

 

[swamper]

Welcome

Welcome to the forumn. There is so much information here as well as in books. You seem to be doing the right thing by reading and practicing. I agree that you don't need to do your practice in the casino. Learn your count and BS very VERY well before you hit the tables.

Also try to be realistic in what you expect to make towards your tuition. Counting does work but it's not a get rich quick scheme. It takes hard work and time. You will see that variance in black jack makes it seem like a roller coaster. It takes some good nerves to hand in there when things don't go your way. The best bet is to learn the basic math principles so that you can stick to that and know that its best to keep playing your count properly.

Enjoy the ride.

 

[zengrifter]

I've been learning basic as outlined by Thorp. Still though, I'm at that point that I'm sure many of you were at when you first started: I'm essentially lost in the woods.

From memory, Thorp's BS had errors.
A good starting point, aside from a stack of books and this forum, might be -
GameMaster's Blackjack School

 

[zengrifter]

There is no need to pay "tuition" in the casino. Dont play until you are ready. Proper preparation takes about 9 months of hard work.

Decent preparation is easily accomplished in 4-12 weeks, depending on dedication, beyond which casino play is necessary.

You are ready when --

• You can count a deck accurately in under 20 seconds
• You know BS cold
• You know at least the top20 indices.

 

[zengrifter]

In THE THEORY OF BLACKJACK by Griffin chapter 7, On The Likely Consequences Of Errors In Card Counting Systems, this idea is discussed in detail. If not read carefully people dont realize how severe the penalty is for using indices to aggressively (error of employing index to soon or over estimating the TC) for nonlinear gain indices. Many indices are fairly linear in terms of gain and for some of these this penalty is smaller but still costs you money.

Enough errors of this type can make counting a losing proposition. The largest expected advantage is perfect use of indices. Errors mentioned above (over use of indices and over betting) cost a lot of your advantage. Errors in the other direction are far less costly.

Random (ie, not chronic) occasional (infrequent) errors have virtually no effect.
There is no such thing as precise indices per'se, see ZGI page-4, so employing them early or late has no appreciable longterm detriment. zg

 

[tthree]

Random (ie, not chronic) occasional (infrequent) errors have virtually no effect.
There is no such thing as precise indices per'se, see ZGI page-4, so employing them early or late has no appreciable longterm detriment. zg

The concept I wrote about is pretty basic and easy to understand. Some indices double your money at risk with little raise in EV. They are very negative in expectation before reaching the index. Here is the percentage played at each TC 0 or greater for the count in chapter 7 of TOB.

TC 0 => 18%
TC +1 => 16%
TC +2 => 13%
TC +3 => 7%
TC +4 => 4%
TC +5 or greater => 1%
And a mirror image for each negative TC

You make your max bet at +5. You start doing "stupid things" like doubling 10 v (T or A), doubling an 8 v (5 or 4), doubling 9 v 7, and soft 20 v (5 or 6) among many others at your highest indices.

It doesnt matter if I make an error of calculating +4 instead of +5 systematically by trying to exactly estimate the discard tray rather than flooring my estimate or maybe the index was floored when generated rather than being rounded up?

I AM NOW MAKING DOUBLE MY MAX BET 80% OF THE TIME WITH A DISADVANTAGE OVER NOT DOUBLING FOR THOSE INDICES. If it was for my second biggest bet at TC +4 I would be doing it 58.33% of the time. For my next smallest bet the mistake is made 52% of the time. Only your min bet and the next smallest bet is the mistake made less than half the time.

Do yourself a favor and spend more than 4 to 12 weeks preparing. As anyone can see this is an extremely costly mistake. The advantage AP play scratches out is small with little tolerance for errors in the wrong direction.

 

[nickelfish]

You guys are just the tops. Thanks for kickin' all that towards me.

swamper: Thanks for the welcome. I'm trying to be conservative and not get drawn in by the idea of counting, rather focusing on the meat and potatoes mechanics that make it work. We're probably looking at holding a bankroll of around $2000-$4000 and expecting a return of around $500-$1000 every 10 hours of play or so. Honestly, we pulled those figures out of our respective rears, so I don't know if that's realistic or not. The EV and variance is a bit of a muddled subject for me. Any good suggestions on where to go to bone up on that? A thread here maybe? Also, in relation to math skills, I'm not terrible (and my partner studied to be an electrical engineer so I'm not worried about him). But I do get stuck on some numbers for whatever reason. Are there any tricks or tips you know of to facilitate the experience from basic adding of the cards up to calculating the index number? I've got a few methods of my own, but they could use some supplementing.

tthree: My partner and I aren't planning on going in full force until July 4th, 2012 so we've got time to prepare, me thinks. We've both dicked around in casinos in AC and the Ohio Valley region, so the glitz and glam isn't something new to us. The indicies, however, are. They're actually one of the top things that drove me here. These are the deviations to take based on the index number, right? I had it in my head that "hey, I can count numbers. This card counting thing seems like something I could do." Then all the info just drowned me. I'll keep indicies high up on my VIS list. I've read there's a good number of them, but I think I should probably have a solid grasp on counting before I dip into that pool.

zengrifter: Thanks for the links and the info. I had a suspicion that Thorp's material might be a bit dated. Dedication isn't a problem for me. Time is the real enemy here. It's summer, so I'm doing OK just now, but when school comes back in I've got a full time course load on top of a full time job plus other more human obligations. I'll find the time, though. I agree that the basics need to be effortless. That's something I'm trying to drill into my partner. He likes to get swept up in the romance of things and is already talking about methods of avoiding heat. I try to keep him grounded, so we'll see.

Again, thanks guys. I'm sure you'll be seeing more of my ass than you can stomach around here.

 

[Coyote]

Nickelfish,

Cool name! I would recommend Casino Verite Blackjack. A practice program by QFIT. I think you will find it in the store of this website or you can go to QFIT's website. I would recommends alsosearching the forum for practice tips and drills. I recall Blackjack Avenger had some great advice. You may want to employ the services of a fried to deal several spots and play each hand. You can find cheap blackjack felts and shoes to add a bit of realism. Also, learn to count cards by two and cancel out +1 cards with -1 cards. Using this method, you should be able to go through two decks in 20 to 30 seconds.

Have fun and enjoy the game!
Best of variance to you,

Coyote

 

[nickelfish]

So here's a question that isn't so obvious to me: How can I tell if a source (print, net, or otherwise) is reliable? Is there a quick and dirty method, like a certain publishing house I should look for or certain names to avoid? Or am I just stuck researching my research?

 

[LovinItAll]

There is no need to pay "tuition" in the casino. Dont play until you are ready. Proper preparation takes about 9 months of hard work.

I generally agree with this, but depending on the OP's BR, if he hasn't done much/any casino gaming, flatting $5 for a couple of hours a few times to get used to the environment (after getting B.S. down cold) is pretty cheap. My son wanted to give CC'ing a try and had little experience. When I couldn't discourage him (and he doesn't know much about how much I play - doesn't live in the same state now), we played BS nickles for a few hours a few days in a row. Very cheap for the result we got, which was him losing an interest in the grind of BJ in general. He has a great job with no casinos nearby (he wanted to CC when he visited), but now things like hiking, target shooting, etc. seem like better ideas to him. Where he's concerned, that's fine with me, too.

Best ~ L.I.A.

 

[Memphis10Tigers]

So here's a question that isn't so obvious to me: How can I tell if a source (print, net, or otherwise) is reliable? Is there a quick and dirty method, like a certain publishing house I should look for or certain names to avoid? Or am I just stuck researching my research?

You and I are about in the same boat - still learning.

Blackbelt in Blackjack by Arnold Snyder is the book I purchased and it has everything you need to understand the theoretical basics.

After that, practice counting down a deck until you can do it in under 30 seconds. I started counting one-by-one, then to twos, and then to 3's.

Invest in practice software (I just bought QFIT last week). It has counting drills, deck estimation drills, etc. You can also simulate live casino play with strategy help on the proper use of indices.

The folks on here have been more than helpful with my dumb questions. :grin:

 

[Nynefingers]

I can't say enough good things about QFIT's "Modern Blackjack" book, which is available to read free on his website. I use hi-lo, not REKO which is discussed in the book, but the comparisons are shown there and generally REKO performs comparably. Once you get ready to actually start playing, you should probably invest in CVCX in order to determine proper bet spreads and risk of ruin for different rulesets, penetration, etc. I wouldn't put much weight on knowing lots of indices before you ever even play. You'll have enough to remember. Get BS and counting down cold, learn all you can about bankroll management, and get in a casino and start playing. It doesn't hurt to learn a couple of indices up front, but it certainly isn't a requirement. You'll want to add them at some point because they do make a worthwhile difference in your EV, but don't think you have to know them before you set foot in a casino.

 

[Youk]

So here's a question that isn't so obvious to me: How can I tell if a source (print, net, or otherwise) is reliable? Is there a quick and dirty method, like a certain publishing house I should look for or certain names to avoid? Or am I just stuck researching my research?

Just throw your resource in question on to these forums, and people will guide you (hopefully) in the right direction. I did that frequently when I first started...