I am a $10 $15 & $25 player. I play BJ for entertainment & I do count I bet in a way most of you guys will not agree with. My bank roll is $1000 a visit which is why I don't bet more than $25 ,except with a high 20+ count. I love to play 2 hands & start with $15 bets. I stay at $15 if the count is + & go back to $10 if C is min . I don't wait for that magic + count to raise my bet , I raise it to $15 any + C & $10 any minus C . I play out of 6 deck shoe -- dealer stays on soft 17 . I hate to count past 10 one way or the other, so when the C gets to + 10 , I place a red chip to the side & call it money in the bank. If the C get to minus 10 , I place a white chip to the side & start my count from 1 to 10 again adding or subtracting to my red or white chips. If the C gets to + 20 , I bet $25 , but that does not happen very often. If the table allows , I will go back to 1 hand at a minus 10 count. Again> any + C from 1 to 20 $15 any +C from 20 on is $25. any minus C is $10 bet & back to 1 hand if the C is minus 10. I have been lucky so far & counting all the comps I get , I am doing ok. POGO
Keeping it simple again
- Thread starter pogostick
- Start date
Brock Windsor
Well-Known Member
You must be using a running count only. If you're happy playing that way keep it up, just treat it as cheap entertainment.
BW
BW
This is a plea for help.
I'll get back to you on this. The trick will be tweaking the spread, perhaps adding a few deviations, but still keeping it running hilo (I assume you're playing hilo). It might be a little tough with play-all, two hands, a low spread, and a neutered count ... but no matter. The goal will be to get Pogo to play a break-even game, so he can chill, collect comps, and enjoy the game.
I can tell you right now what might work. We'll have you leave the game at extreme negative counts, start your base bet at 2x10, and place your 2x25 sooner. And you'll buy insurance at a running count of 10, otherwise you'll play basic strategy. This will, in no way, threaten your longevity, and the average amount wagered per hour will likely be quite similar (maximizing your comps), only you won't be losing money ... hopefully.
Actually, if someone else would like to do a few sims, that would be appreciated. I'm a little busy here. However, if no one gets back to you within the next few days, I'll see what I can whip up.
Best,
Syph
I'll get back to you on this. The trick will be tweaking the spread, perhaps adding a few deviations, but still keeping it running hilo (I assume you're playing hilo). It might be a little tough with play-all, two hands, a low spread, and a neutered count ... but no matter. The goal will be to get Pogo to play a break-even game, so he can chill, collect comps, and enjoy the game.
I can tell you right now what might work. We'll have you leave the game at extreme negative counts, start your base bet at 2x10, and place your 2x25 sooner. And you'll buy insurance at a running count of 10, otherwise you'll play basic strategy. This will, in no way, threaten your longevity, and the average amount wagered per hour will likely be quite similar (maximizing your comps), only you won't be losing money ... hopefully.
Actually, if someone else would like to do a few sims, that would be appreciated. I'm a little busy here. However, if no one gets back to you within the next few days, I'll see what I can whip up.
Best,
Syph
kewljason
Well-Known Member
I don't think he is far away from that break even game now, if at all, assuming the rules aren't horrendous. We had a post about a very similar situation last year. I met an older gentleman on the train home from Atlantic City who I had observed on a couple of occasions spreading $25-$50 on the 6 deck Borgata game. (not the best of games) I struck up a conversation with him and he told me that he makes a few bucks an hour plus better comps than spreading bigger at the lower level games. Later, I got to wondering if he was really playing a break even game at all with such a spread. I ran a sim, as did a couple other members and sure enough he was making between $5 and $7 dollars per hour depending on the exact configuration of the sim. Of course the trick is, as Syph suggested that you can't play all of the negative counts. This older Gent wasn't about to go table hopping, but you definately have to get out of at least some of those negative counts with such an approach. It really did surprise me how little it took though to flip the advantage from the house to player, or at least a break even game for recreational players.Syph said:
Okay ...
First, we have to kind of get a feel for where Pogo is coming from. He's not interested in getting booted from the casino, he likes the game, likes the comps, prefers playing two hands, low spreads, no true count conversions, no deviations, and would rather not jump from table to table. I take it that Pogo is also not interested in changing to a different count, either. So we're stuck with neutered Hilo.
A few sims:
-------------------------
Pogo's Running Hilo
6d S17 DAS DOA 75% pen
Spread:
RC <=- 10 (2 x 10)
RC = -9 to +9 (2 x 15)
RC >= + 10 (2 x 25)
Results
Win/hr: -$8.33/hr.
Average Bet: $30.68
Standard Deviation : $298.97
-------------------------
This is bad, but not terrible. Pogo has nearly cut the house edge in half, but the spread is too moderate, too early, and too late. It's kinda like lukewarm tea, and the blackjack gods do not like lukewarm tea.
Try this instead:
RC <= +2 (2 x 10)
RC > +3 (2 x 25)
Results
Win/hr: -$1.54/hr
Average Bet: $29.58
Standard Deviation: 311.53
Still a losing player. And the gods are grumbling still. However, if we further abandon all counts of -12 or worse, we can raise our expectation to:
Results
Win/hr: +$1.46
Average Bet: $30.04
Standard Deviation: $308.67
Shazam!
------------------------------
So by simply optimizing the betting, and walking away from less than one in twenty shoes, we have effectively increased our return nearly $10/hr. All the while maintaining our same average bet (for comps), and only slightly increasing our variance.
The gods are happy.
Best,
Syph
First, we have to kind of get a feel for where Pogo is coming from. He's not interested in getting booted from the casino, he likes the game, likes the comps, prefers playing two hands, low spreads, no true count conversions, no deviations, and would rather not jump from table to table. I take it that Pogo is also not interested in changing to a different count, either. So we're stuck with neutered Hilo.
A few sims:
-------------------------
Pogo's Running Hilo
6d S17 DAS DOA 75% pen
Spread:
RC <=- 10 (2 x 10)
RC = -9 to +9 (2 x 15)
RC >= + 10 (2 x 25)
Results
Win/hr: -$8.33/hr.
Average Bet: $30.68
Standard Deviation : $298.97
-------------------------
This is bad, but not terrible. Pogo has nearly cut the house edge in half, but the spread is too moderate, too early, and too late. It's kinda like lukewarm tea, and the blackjack gods do not like lukewarm tea.
Try this instead:
RC <= +2 (2 x 10)
RC > +3 (2 x 25)
Results
Win/hr: -$1.54/hr
Average Bet: $29.58
Standard Deviation: 311.53
Still a losing player. And the gods are grumbling still. However, if we further abandon all counts of -12 or worse, we can raise our expectation to:
Results
Win/hr: +$1.46
Average Bet: $30.04
Standard Deviation: $308.67
Shazam!
------------------------------
So by simply optimizing the betting, and walking away from less than one in twenty shoes, we have effectively increased our return nearly $10/hr. All the while maintaining our same average bet (for comps), and only slightly increasing our variance.
The gods are happy.
Best,
Syph
You know, the only thing I don't quite get about this is the goal ... why bother? Where would Robin Hood have been in myth, song, and legend had he never offended King John?kewljason said:
I think if you have the ability to cut into the house advantage, you have a ethical responsibility to cut further. To do less is rather unbecoming. We didn't evolve for whatever billions of years to strive to be break-even players. Shucks, with that attitude, we would have never jumped out of the trees, or even crawled out of the ocean.
Our constitution has severely weakened. I blame Facebook.
Hmph.
Best,
Syph
kewljason
Well-Known Member
You and I and many others on this site feel this way, I am sure. But different folk have different goal. The older gent I spoke of earlier, lived alone. (I didn't ask, but I take it his wife passed). He liked to take the train to AC and play a few hands and get a meal. If he got a comped meal and earned a couple bucks for his discounted train ride, his entertainment was free. Other guys have therir wifes drag them to the casinos every month or so. They like to play a little blackjack but aren't fanatical about it. They are more than happy to turn their play into a break even or slightly plus venture while enjoying the comps and free rooms. Especially those with wives that have heavy slot action. :laugh: So while these goal and the time and effort to achieve them wouldn't be to our liking, these people are thrilled no end. So basically, whatever floats your boat.Syph said:
Okay fine, but let the record show I'm nonplussed. Yes, nonplussed. And with due cause.kewljason said:So while these goal and the time and effort to achieve them wouldn't be to our liking, these people are thrilled no end. So basically, whatever floats your boat.
Nonplussed with due cause.