KJ, How Did Your Year Go

[Midwest Player]

You mentioned you are done playing for the year. At one time you mentioned this year was going badly. Did you manage to pull off a winning year in this shortened covid year?

I made only one trip this year in early spring and haven't played since. Played three sessions on that trip and won one and lost two. Ended up with less than a thousand dollar loss. First losing year since 2007.

 

[KewlJ]

You mentioned you are done playing for the year. At one time you mentioned this year was going badly. Did you manage to pull off a winning year in this shortened covid year?

I am done playing blackjack for the year. I still have some machine free play to pick up for December. I had sort of decided to stop sharing my results as it seems to offend Bosox and a couple others. But my purpose in doing so has been to show just what a mid-level grinder type player can make. 2020 is going to be my worst year ever for blackjack. Even dating back to my first few years of playing much lower stakes. So I think it would be a dis-service to not share those results and just what worst case scenario is. (hopefully this year was worse case)

The short answer is yes for blackjack I had winning year, just barely. I was in the red as late as early October, finished +8800. I decided to stop playing end of October as Covid cases started climbing again. A blackjack table is not a good place to be.

I also have some supplemental machine play income that should be about 15 grand after I pick up this last month of free play. Not doing any play right now to generate future offers, just picking up. And I collected unemployment for 11 weeks, qualifying under the gig worker expanded eligibility. I only filed for and collected for the 11 weeks that casinos were closed. So my AP income will be 34, 35 grand, about 1/3 of normal. But it has been an unusual and bad year for everyone. Can't wait for 2021!

I should mention that some of my struggle this year was sort of my own doing. When casinos re-opened, I decided there was an opportunity for me to play higher stakes, at least double my usual stakes, without drawing much additional heat, because of the new covid times (increased responsibilities for pit folks ect). The result of that was my EV is only off slightly from my normal average, but it just so happened variance was not very kind to me while I was playing higher stakes. A smaller number of rounds played at higher stakes is a recipe for higher variance. It would have been nice if it went the other way, but it didn't.

 

[KewlJ]

By the way, my brother didn't make the decision that I made to play higher stakes and try to play catch up with EV. When casinos re-opened he just went about playing his normal stakes. The tables were so uncrowded the first couple month that he got in a lot of heads up play and made up a bit of that lost EV that way. In the end is EV for the year (he quit early as well) is about 75% of what he has been doing and his actual results, right in line with EV, slightly ahead. Maybe that would have been the safe way to go.

 

[Runit]

KJ, your year sounds incredibly similar to mine. A bad year all around for me. My income was 45,000 from Blackjack (only source of income). At one point for a brief moment I broke a 6 figure income. This was actually in October. Ever since I went on a pretty horrible run as you know. Booking the next few sessions:
$145.00 -$35,675.00(an entire LV trip booked as one session) $425.00 $237.50 -$2,272.50 $727.50 -$4,162.50 $357.50 -$3,900.00 -$1,300.00 -$675.00 -$1,575.00 -$1,850.00 $350.00
These heavy loses were because I decided to play higher stakes. Now I'm sitting here with a bankroll of $75,000 (until I pay more bills) when I was at $130,000 just in October. After expenses I've been showing a loss since the end of January, pretty rough year. Over 50% of my income came from January when I won 30k.
2019 Win: 45K, 2020 Win: 45k which is slightly incredible considering I started on a 14k roll in 2019 (10k of which was investor money) AND I had to pay 35% of the win over the first 800 hours before we broke the bank so despite having fa larger bankroll in 2020 and no debt I somehow managed to earn the same as I did in 2019 when everything was seemingly against me.
I felt the need to share with you KJ considering how similar our years appear to have been. Disappointments all around.

 

[KewlJ]

I felt the need to share with you KJ considering how similar our years appear to have been. Disappointments all around.

Well I thank you for sharing. I happen to believe that players sharing their experiences, including results can be beneficial to other players. In our cases, showing what a bad year looks like by the numbers. Then when someone a little less experienced, perhaps even just a recreational or part-time player experiences a really bad run, they know it isn't that abnormal.

As for your 50% of income coming from your first month, January, I have had two sort of similar experiences in my career. In 2011, I think it was early in the year, I had an experience that I wrote about that I call the perfect shoe. It was just a stunningly good shoe, from the time I started max betting early in the shoe, I didn't lose a bet. I won 20 grand in that shoe. For that year my blackjack total was just a hair over 60k, so 1/3 of my years win came in that 15 minutes.

Then either the next year, 2012 or 2013, I had a year that started out bad (still my worst start to a year). By mid April I was in the red 32k. Then I went on a 5 week run where I couldn't lose. Won 115k in 5 weeks. Seemed like almost every max bet, every doubled down and split won. Then as quickly as it started that run ended. At the end of the year, I was up almost exactly 115k. That means for 47 weeks both before and after that 5 week run, I was dead even. It is funny how the swings work. BUT, sharing these kind of experiences is beneficial to others and shows just how odd the game can run.

 

[LC Larry]

Please keep the political garbage off of here.

 

[21forme]

Please keep the political garbage off of here.

Agree.

Keep it on The Urinal (VCT), where idiots pretend they're on a gambling forum.

 

[LC Larry]

Agree.

Keep it on The Urinal (VCT), where idiots pretend they're on a gambling forum.

Urinal is too nice of a term. That joint and the owners other one is the whole sewer system.

Back on topic, posting these results are meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

 

[tuck22]

Well I thank you for sharing. I happen to believe that players sharing their experiences, including results can be beneficial to other players. In our cases, showing what a bad year looks like by the numbers. Then when someone a little less experienced, perhaps even just a recreational or part-time player experiences a really bad run, they know it isn't that abnormal.

As for your 50% of income coming from your first month, January, I have had two sort of similar experiences in my career. In 2011, I think it was early in the year, I had an experience that I wrote about that I call the perfect shoe. It was just a stunningly good shoe, from the time I started max betting early in the shoe, I didn't lose a bet. I won 20 grand in that shoe. For that year my blackjack total was just a hair over 60k, so 1/3 of my years win came in that 15 minutes.

Then either the next year, 2012 or 2013, I had a year that started out bad (still my worst start to a year). By mid April I was in the red 32k. Then I went on a 5 week run where I couldn't lose. Won 115k in 5 weeks. Seemed like almost every max bet, every doubled down and split won. Then as quickly as it started that run ended. At the end of the year, I was up almost exactly 115k. That means for 47 weeks both before and after that 5 week run, I was dead even. It is funny how the swings work. BUT, sharing these kind of experiences is beneficial to others and shows just how odd the game can run.

i got back into blackjack as a profitable side hobby but i've been a poker pro for over a decade
this year i've only gotten in about 400 hours (mostly jan and feb) in poker. i'm up about 34k. 22k of that was one session. coming off of back to back -8,000 dollar days. variance really is a crazy thing in gambling. i was looking over my poker records and in the last 5,000 hours i have about three 500 hour break even streaks. I also had a 500 hour streak where i made 220k. playing essentially the same stakes. i'm actually on a weird downswing now of about 10k in poker, with 6,000 of it coming just before covid and 4,000 since i started playing again (started -9.000 right out of the gate)

Blackjack wise my max bet in a shoe game is 400-450 , and in some places 2 hands of 300.
My max in double deck has been 300.
Most i've won or loss in one double deck shoe is about 2800 and most in a shoe game is about 4,000.

 

[Zero]

Please keep the political garbage off of here.

Was there a deleted post or something? I don't see anything political in the prior posts.

0

 

[KewlJ]

In the name of accuracy, I should update, that I have played 3 short blackjack sessions since my post #2 answer, registering very small wins in each. I played these sessions because I had a number of matchplay coupons/chips that I didn't want to lose. So my blackjack income is several thousand dollars higher than previously mentioned, which basically changes nothing, in that I am still a fraction of expectation for the year from blackjack....a very bad year.

The one little thing that changed is that 2020 is no longer the worst year of my 17 year blackjack career. This little increase bumps me up over all three of my first 3 years of play, just barely. But I am playing 10 times the max bet, 20 times for half this year, and the fact that I just barely eclipsed those three years, is just another way of showing what an extraordinary (lousy) year 2020 was.

 

[Midwest Player]

In the name of accuracy, I should update, that I have played 3 short blackjack sessions since my post #2 answer, registering very small wins in each. I played these sessions because I had a number of matchplay coupons/chips that I didn't want to lose. So my blackjack income is several thousand dollars higher than previously mentioned, which basically changes nothing, in that I am still a fraction of expectation for the year from blackjack....a very bad year.

The one little thing that changed is that 2020 is no longer the worst year of my 17 year blackjack career. This little increase bumps me up over all three of my first 3 years of play, just barely. But I am playing 10 times the max bet, 20 times for half this year, and the fact that I just barely eclipsed those three years, is just another way of showing what an extraordinary (lousy) year 2020 was.

Look on the bright side, at least your income will be low enough to qualify for both stimulus checks.

 

[KewlJ]

Look on the bright side, at least your income will be low enough to qualify for both stimulus checks.

I am not sure about that. Earlier this year, what was it March, I qualified because it was based on my 2018 tax return. I hadn't filed my 2019 at that time, which means I caught a break because I wouldn't have qualified by my 2019.

I am assuming this stimulus signed yesterday will be based on 2019, which is now my latest filed return and by that I won't qualify, unless maybe they are just sending to everyone that got one earlier this year. . There probably aren't that many people who would qualify based on 2018, but not qualify based on 2019, like I do. My average income is right on the cusp, so a little below average year (2018) and I qualify and a little above average year (2019) and I don't. Weird.

I will be filing my 2020 return in January, just in case there is another coming at some point, as you are correct, if there is another coming later in 2021, I would certainly qualify based on my 2020 income.

However, I am not sure I would say qualifying for a stimulus because I had a lousy year, is "the bright side".

 

[21forme]

I will be filing my 2020 return in January,

How is that even possible? Don't you have a brokerage account? The 1099-DIV, etc. usually aren't available until mid February and then corrected ones are sent in March.

 

[KewlJ]

How is that even possible? Don't you have a brokerage account? The 1099-DIV, etc. usually aren't available until mid February and then corrected ones are sent in March.

Nope, no brokerage account. I do need some tax info from banks which becomes available online sometime in January.

People must think I have more money than I do. Subtract out taxes, and living expenses for 17 years and the majority of my wealth is in my home (paid for). Aside from that, and a couple hundred K bankroll. I am just an average guy, working hard to get by.

 

[21forme]

There's a higher historical EV in the stock market than counting cards. You might want to talk to a financial planner and consider diverting some of that BR into investments.

 

[DSchles]

There's a higher historical EV in the stock market than counting cards. You might want to talk to a financial planner and consider diverting some of that BR into investments.

Well, while I certainly agree 100% that a person that is KewlJ's age should definitely have a decent part of his net worth in the stock market, it surely isn't true that the e.v. in the market is higher than counting cards.

Consider $100,000 as your bankroll. You invest it in the stock market at the beginning of the year. It's now tied up. Historically, with dividends reinvested, you earn about 10%-12% annually. So, with about 16% annually volatility (s.d.), you earn, say $10,000 a year from your $100,000 bank.

Now, tell me how KewlJ would feel if he used his $100,000 blackjack bankroll and earned "only" $10,000 a year! It's the ability to recycle your bank over and over again that makes blackjack a much more lucrative investment than the stock market. The return may be, say, 1%, but when you calculate the average bet times the number of hands per hour times the number of hours played in a year, it's easy to see how superior the return is on your $100,000 blackjack bank, compared to the stock market investment.

Don

 

[21forme]

KJ can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he significantly underbets his bankroll in deference to longevity. Just making up numbers here for illustrative purposes, but let's say his current ROR is 0.1% with his full bankroll. If it rises to 1% with 100K of it invested in the stock market for the long-term, is that acceptable?

 

[KewlJ]

KJ can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he significantly underbets his bankroll in deference to longevity. Just making up numbers here for illustrative purposes, but let's say his current ROR is 0.1% with his full bankroll. If it rises to 1% with 100K of it invested in the stock market for the long-term, is that acceptable?

Yes, 21forme is correct. I reset what I call my playing BR to 100k at the start of every year. And while I don't carry that around, I want to be able to get to it very easily without liquidating anything. I also like to have a second 100k available should I lose my entire first bankroll, which I have never come close to doing.

And yes, I am aware I should be doing much more with probably 150k of this 200k amount than I currently do.

 

[Midwest Player]

I am assuming this stimulus signed yesterday will be based on 2019, which is now my latest filed return and by that I won't qualify, unless maybe they are just sending to everyone that got one earlier this year. . There probably aren't that many people who would qualify based on 2018, but not qualify based on 2019, like I do. My average income is right on the cusp, so a little below average year (2018) and I qualify and a little above average year (2019) and I don't.

Yes, the IRS is going to look at 2019 tax info to see who qualifies for a check or direct deposit. However, this does not mean you won't get the $600. The first stimulus check and the second $600 stimulus check are based on 2020 income. You just will have to wait until you do you 2020 taxes to claim it. I wouldn't be in a too big of a rush to do my 2020 taxes until all the details are worked out. Everything I read indicates what I just posted is what is going to happen.
https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-much-will-my-covid-19-stimulus-check-be-and-am-i-eligible.html

The second stimulus payment is actually an advance payment of a refundable credit that will be calculated with your 2020 taxes (the tax return you need to file by April 15, 2021).

If you made too much money in 2019 to get the full stimulus payment, but you end up making less income in 2020 than you did in prior years, you could get a stimulus payment as a rebate in 2021. Luckily, if you make more money in 2020 than you did in 2019, you should not have to pay back part or all of your stimulus payment in 2021.