Know when to walk away

gronbog

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#41
#41
Michael Johnson said:
I've lost tons of money having a fixed "win point."
Click to expand...
This is a ridiculous statement. How do you know? You stopped playing!

Having said that, if you are a regular player, deciding to stop based on being ahead or behind combined with some other voodoo like losing 3 hands in a row is irrelevant in the long run.

Michael and Alan, it sounds like neither of you is playing with an advantage. Alan has stated that he's playing basic strategy which does not give him an advantage. So regardless of your exit strategy, you will lose overall over time. In the case of Michael, if I am wrong about your strategy/advantage, then you should know that your exit point depends in whether you still have an advantage, the level of casino tolerance for your play and how much you have exposed yourself during the current session and should have little to do with whether you are up or down for the session.

Edit: Now that I've read a few more posts, I'm now certain that Michael is not playing with an advantage.
 
Last edited:
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#42
#42
gronbog said:
This is a ridiculous statement. How do you know? You stopped playing!

Having said that, if you are a regular player, deciding to stop based on being ahead or behind combined with some other voodoo like losing 3 hands in a row is irrelevant in the long run.

Michael and Alan, it sounds like neither of you is playing with an advantage. Alan has stated that he's playing basic strategy which does not give him an advantage. So regardless of your exit strategy, you will lose overall over time. In the case of Michael, if I am wrong about your strategy/advantage, then you should know that your exit point depends in whether you still have an advantage, the level of casino tolerance for your play and how much you have exposed yourself during the current session and should have little to do with whether you are up or down for the session.

Edit: Now that I've read a few more posts, I'm now certain that Michael is not playing with an advantage.[/QUOTE
Click to expand...
 
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#43
#43
It is true that I am not an advantage player. But I can tell you this... Casinos know how to set up their games to thwart most every so-called advantage. You think you can beat 8 decks with a continuous shuffle? Or a 6-deck shoe with 50% percent penetration? Or Dealer must hit S17, and all the other casino advantages? Even the Wizard of Odds says it can't be done anymore. Good Luck. You'll be spending hours looking for favorable games, only to be escorted out when you start to win much of anything. Only guys like Don Johnson can consistently win at BJ, and that's by changing the game before the first card is dealt.
 
Last edited:
gronbog

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#44
#44
True, those are all unplayable conditions (except for H17), but there are plenty of games still out there which are beatable by a variety of methods.

Please show us where the Wizard of Odds said that advantage play can't be done successfully anymore. I know it can be done, because I'm still doing it.
 
S

stopgambling

Well-Known Member
#46
#46
gronbog said:
I know it can be done, because I'm still doing it.
Click to expand...
true dat. no doubt it is harder though . "michael" , these people played a lot and have won consistently and they know what they are talking about. They continuously study bj and other games , not just play like a gambler or hobbyist.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#48
#48
i don't think anyone mentioned the problem of opportunity cost.
not sure how to put a number on it, but anyway, one doesn't want to walk away from opportunities.
 
S

So_what_MD

Active Member
#49
#49
DSchles said:
"I give credit to my intuition to identify bad variance."

Not sure you realize how ignorant this statement is. If you could actually do that, someone would probably have to kill you.

People recognize bad variance AFTER it happens, not before. You're just being foolish and wasting everyone's time here.

Don
Click to expand...
Don:
Is your famous SCORE before or "AFTER" cut card sensitive? I play 6 decks with about 2 cut off, hence score slightly < 20 before. The most I split was 28 times, that took us up to 60. Was I dealing with 20 or 60? If 60, huge incentive for me to split.
No heat where I play and ROR is NOT an issue. I play 0.8 but I can refill my BR 5 or 10 times. Just don't wanna play 0.1 or less and don't wanna tie up 6 digit either. Any other reason I shouldn't split face?

Can a big CE end up losing money? If so, I understand some teams pay by CE? I am still having problem derieving CE.

I am paying a dealer to do the following with me. We would work 30 times 8 hour shift. Each shift he is to point out winning and losing tables; I would then monitor/chart the actions for the next 12 shuffle. If the winning/losing streak persists => merit to dealer's initial table assignment. Players usually give the house 2-4% edge. I would finish by playing basic strategy for a few shuffles and AO2 another few just to see if the indication persists. If the data is consistent, I am hoping to formulate an argument with the result. Don't jump on me until I have a chance to collect the data hehe.

Your valuable input is much appreciated.

I notice you were mentioned in Eadington's publication. He was the hardest gaming researcher I knew, well, maybe Howard Schaffer too. We shall all miss the man ...
 
gronbog

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#51
#51
Anada, don't bother to wait for his report. The notion that winning tables tend to stay that way and vice versa due to some kind of momentum is pure voodoo. Just as important is the fact that it is not possible collect enough empirical data to draw any conclusions. A simulation would be required.
 
X

xengrifter

Banned
#52
#52
So_what_MD said:
Don:
Is your famous SCORE before or "AFTER" cut card sensitive?
Click to expand...
Good point. Gon?
So_what_MD said:
I am paying a dealer to do the following with me. We would work 30 times 8 hour shift. Each shift he is to point out winning and losing tables; I would then monitor/chart the actions for the next 12 shuffle. If the winning/losing streak persists => merit to dealer's initial table assignment. Players usually give the house 2-4% edge. I would finish by playing basic strategy for a few shuffles and AO2 another few just to see if the indication persists. If the data is consistent, I am hoping to formulate an argument with the result.
Click to expand...
Oh nooo!!
Your reflection of intuition use was entirely valid AND SCIENTIFIC ... but this is pure voodoo IMHO.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top