Ko Count: Risk of Ruin

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MJ

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This is my first post on this site and I just wanted to say I think your doing a good job of educating BJ players and sharing knowledge about the game!

Mayor, I was wondering what the ROR(risk of ruin) is if my bankroll is $1500 and I go into Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun and spread from $15 to $150? I would be using the KO Preferred system in a 6 deck game. How many hands would it take to double my bankroll and what are my chances of success assuming typical rules with Late Surrender and 75% penetration? 65% penetration? Right off the top my Basic Strategy expectation would be in the neighborhood of -.36% right?

What about the same spread ($15 to $150) for a bankroll of $3000? Any words of wisdom would greatly be appreciated!!! Thanks a million....

-MJ
 
Ploppy answer

Hi MJ,

I'm also new here and still a ploppy. I'll answer what I can and the experts will correct me and supplement with more detailed answers.

The numbers you mention do not sound good. The ratio of your big bet to your total bankroll is 1/10. As a comparison, Wong who bets conservatively speaks of 1/150 if you play a single hand or 1/200 if you play 2 hands. Other authors (namely Snyder) recommend no more than a 1/100 ratio.

I am incapable of answering your question regarding your exact ROR using the mentioned bet spread with your bankroll, but it would be way too high. From a more pragmatic perspective, the problem I see with a $1,500 BR is that your biggest bet should be $15 or so and that it will be hard to find tables where you can still have a bet-spread that allows you to take full advantage of the count without overbetting, which would increase your ROR.

I have no casino experience, but from what I've read, you might want to be careful with the spread you mention. 1-15 might draw heat if you begin to win regularly or play big. Authors recommend finding other ways to get an edge than crazy bet variations (e.g. wonging, playing 2 hands when count is positive, etc.), or have a real good act.

As for how many hands you would need to play, your expectation for for complete KO system, 6 decks, using a 1-10 spread (traditional rules) is .73 %. It seems that, if you play an average of $10 a hand, 100 hands an hour, you would make $7.30 an hour, so about 200 hours of play to double your BR.

Now I leave the word to the experts...

Royam
 
Your answer is great

I don't have the software to easily run a sim for this person, but there is absolutely no doubt that playing a $150 max bet with a $1500 or even $3000 bankroll is absurd. The entire bankroll could easily be lost the first session.

If I were to ball-park this, I would say there is about an 80% ROR with a $1500 BR and about a 65% ROR with a $3000 BR.

--Mayor
 
Another problem

Your proposed spread between your highest and lowest bets is only 10-1. You should have an advantage at that ratio, but not all that much of one. At the eight-deck tables, you'll spend a lot of time playing your minimum bet in negative-expectation situations. These hands are so numerous that your expected losses on them, even at only $15 a hand, will take a serious bite out of your expected win on the few $150 hands.

The best alternative for your circumstances would be to back-count and Wong in when you find a favorable situation. After you Wong into one game, move on to another pit. I have no recent experience with this style of play at the Connecticut joints, but I think it's very likely that you'll have no heat problems at your bet level. The downside is that you'll have to do a lot of walking and then, when you've covered one casino, some driving followed by more walking. Welcome to the glamorous world of advantage play. The reason to put up with all this is that it's the only way to avoid paying the "rent" of playing all those negative-EV hands.

Find out, by observation or by asking, when the shifts change for pit personnel. If you time it right, you should be able to do a Wonging tour from one end of Foxwoods to the other, stop for a snack, and then start all over again with a bunch of pit critters who haven't seen you before.

At Foxwoods, last I knew, backlining was permitted. You assume the additional risk that the ploppy will misplay the hand, though. It doesn't take much departure from BS to wipe out the small edge you'll have even at a good count. If the count gets into positive-EV territory but someone grabs the only open spot before you do, you should probably resist the temptation to backline.

I'd advise you to forgo comps, i.e., don't get rated. You don't want to fix in the pit critter's mind the fact that you jumped into the middle of a shoe and then left at the shuffle. Your post gives the impression that you can readily return to these places fairly often, so even if you don't play the same pit twice on the same shift on the same day, over time they may come to recognize you. Not getting rated helps you avoid or at least delay that. Your comps with this style wouldn't be worth much, anyway.

Switching from a play-all style to Wonging should improve your hourly EV.

As for your original question, about RoR, I agree with everyone else that you shouldn't play with only ten max bets. I remember (all too vividly) a session in which I had a net loss of ten max bets in six minutes. Admittedly, that was in a heads-up game, which you won't get at Foxwoods. If you have a comparable bad run of cards at a full table, you can expect to survive for twelve or even fifteen minutes before blowing your entire bankroll. Most players wouldn't be comfortable with that level of risk, though.
 
You need about $23,000

I've never been to foxwoods or mohegan sun but I believe they are 8 deck games. I did a sim on your game. I believe that if you want to tackle foxwoods and mohegan, you will need a 1 - 16 spread at least. I believe 1 - 16 spreads are necessary for H17 6 deck games and 8 deck games to make it worthwhile. If I can get away with more, of course, I do it.

I put in 8 deck s17, DAS, DOA, Ls which is probably one of the best 8 deck games you can get. For 70 % pen, it said you need a bankroll of $23,000. This is if you spread 1 - 16. I get 10 % ROR, $38/hr, c-score of 18, DI= 4.32 .

For a 1 - 12 spread with the same minimum of $15, I get a ROR of 7.9 %, $28/hr, a c-score of 15 and DI= 3.96 .

Both of these strategies were play all strategies.

Good news, though.

If you have 4,000 dollars , you can wong those puppies.

Spread $15 to $60. This is exactly what you do for a game like this:

TC

<0 .....don't play
1......$15
2......$20
3......$35
4......$45
5......$55
6......$60

That is the optimal 1 - 4 spread for wonging in an 8 deck game with the above rules.

Bad news is that you only make $8.17/hr .
 
All sims done with Basic Hi-Lo

Forgot some things

31 % ROR with your current bankroll of 1500 dollars wonging in .

Mayor was correct, about an 83 % ROR with a play all strategy with current 1500 dollar bankroll.

If you play 8 deck, make sure your count is ace-reckoned. (Hi-Lo or something)
 
How can ROR be so high?

Mayor,

Pardon my ignorance as I am a newbie but how can the Risk of Ruin be so high as 80% for a $1500 BR and 65% for a $3000 BR(spreading $15 to $150 in both instances)? I don't doubt that you are correct but I would just like to understand your reasoning behind your estimates. Your figures are a rude awakening to me and make me think twice about hitting the tables!

Allow me to explain my reasoning and maybe you can correct my fallacies about the game. Recall that the games I would be playing in are 6D, S17, DAS, DA2, and Late Surrender. All of these rules would provide a -.36% expectancy for the player. Thats nearly a dead even game already!

Lets assume for just a moment I were flat betting at $15 a hand. In the short run I could easily come out ahead but in the long run I understand that I am destined to lose. Thats just the law of large numbers...The longer I play the more inevitable losing becomes as the house will grind out its .36% edge. So how do I get ahead? Alas the KO system!!

Now, Dr. Vancura states in "Knock-Out Blackjack" that employing a 1-10 bet spread with the rules described above(excluding late surrender) would allow the player a .73% expectancy using the KO-Preferred system. So now I have the advantage! I understand a little about standard deviation and variance but with this system shouldn't I win the at least the majority of the time(meaning I earn more then I lose)? When I place my top bets at the high running counts shouldn't I win the majority of those bets? If anything shouldn't my ROR be BELOW 50% for whichever bankroll I choose to employ? With your ROR estimates of 80% and 65%, I get the impression that NOT the counter but the house has the advantage. With an 80% ROR, that means I will ultimately go broke 4 out of 5 times I attempt this venture with a $1500 BR. I thought the odds were in the counters favor. Intuitively these RORs do not make sense to me. FOR MY SAKE AND THAT OF THE OTHER NEWBIES....PLEASE HELP.

Thanks,
-MJ
 
Almost forgot

Just wanted to say thanks to Mayor and everyone else for answering my question.

-MJ
 
Confusing EV and StdDev

>With your ROR estimates of 80% and 65%, I get the impression that NOT the counter but the house has the advantage.

Don't confuse standard deviation with expected value. They are not the same thing.

For example, if you played a game that had 100 spots, and one spot payed 101-to-1, would you think that having 10 bets would be enough to beat this game? Or could you imagine you might have to play it 1000's of times (or more) to demonstrate your edge? That is not too far from what blackjack is like.

Standard deviation and expected value are different things. Have a positive EV does not mean there is no standard deviation to contend with.

As for how I arrived at the numbers, I used the standard SCORE model of a $10,000 bankroll and about a 13% ROR (which gives a max bet around $150), and worked backwards to your bankroll. Again, my estimates are rough, but I doubt many would say they are too low. If anything, your odds are higher than I posted of going broke.

--Mayor
 
Interesting Response

Thanks for the reply Mayor. You guys saved me $1500! That was a good example with the 100 spots. Just because I have a slight advantage in a game does not mean I will last long enough to realize it with only 10 bets...even if it does pay 101 to 1.

I was misguided in the belief that just b/c I have a positive EV I stood a good chance of winning the majority of ALL hands played in the long run. Your hypothetical scenario demonstrates that does not neccessarily have to be the case.

But please allow me to ask you this. If I were to wong my way into 100,000 hands that had a significantly high RUNNING COUNT(lets just say +4 which is the pivot point using KO system), would I win the majority of these(and ONLY these) hands played? Or would I still lose the majority of the time but make my juicy profits through double downs, blackjacks, splits, and index plays?

The author of "Las Vegas Blackjack Diaries" says you will lose more hands then you win, even at high counts. Some players tell me you win more hands during high counts and others say the opposite. Please set the record straight once and for all. Thanks again.

-MJ
 
Playing in those casinos

I also play in those casinos, started my career there with even less capitalization. But I was very, very lucky and able to triple my bankroll before my first losing session.

Mohegan has 6 deck shoes out in the older "Casino of the Earth" section, and in the new section right near the Sunburst buffet. Foxwoods has only 8 deck except for the high-limit section (where you will definitely NOT be playing for a long time) which is 6. Now overall, Foxwoods had better average penetration *but* you can hunt around for better still penetration at the 6 deck shoes at Mohegan. Since you only care about the penetration at the table you are playing at, Mohegan can potentially give you a better game.

Wonging: both casinos are very Wongable, much easier to Wong out than in though. I'd strongly advise learning to Wong. Here's a way to Wong in with a partner: sit and play, and have your friend sitting there watching and "hanging out". When the count is right, call him a chicken for not betting and dare him toplace a big bet out.
 
ya

keeping one or two ploppies to wong out on can be a beautiful thing :-) I'm sorry I just have no more sympathy for people who willingly throw so much of their money and life down the tables with not even the slightest idea what they are doing.... SM
 
W/L/T Percentage Changes with RC *LINK*

MJ,

The link below shows the Win/Loss/Tie percentage as a function of High-Low RC. The conditions are 6 Decks, 75% penetration, 1-8 spread, no cover, S17, DAS, and LS, using the High-Low count. I know you asked about KO, but the differences will not be significant. As you can see in the chart, for reasonable RC values (say between -25 and +25) your Win percentage will be close to 43%. The major change at high RC is that as the RC increases, the Tie percentage increases.

Thus, the reasons a card counter makes money by betting big at high counts are the BJ bonus, more favorable double downs, and more favorable splits.

Hope this answers your question!

Dog Hand
 
6 deck $25 minimum/Foxwoods

I've played 6 deck at $25 minimum in the pasthell i even seen $10 and $15 minimums on 6 deck at certain days and hours for short times though.. admittingly i havent been to foxwoods in ages so it might or is different now..
 
Casey

I almost bought Casey last year. I became sidetracked,was in the hopital etc.
It still does interest me, thogh. I go way back to when Thorpe came out with
his first "ten count." Also, I knew lawrence Revere and took some lessons from him. He was then known as "Specs Parsons." (I worked with him at the old El Cortez, in Vegas, in the early 60's)
I didn't know his real name for
a long time. I spent a lot of my life in the casino business on both sides
of the pit and in the slots :-) Ah, those were the days.

I used to a lot of crossroading in the 60's and 70's. And carrying a computer
seems pretty tame to me,now. Especially in these Indian Casinos where the
help don't even know they're alive. I know the jail time etc. But Casey is only illegal in four states, right? If "they" take it away in a backroom deal,
one could get another. I just would't jump my bet around in an out of line manner so some idiot boss that couldn't count anyway would think I was.
I tried to bring up the discussion of May 22,2003 regarding Casey and can't
get it to come up.
What were the things that appear to be bad with Casey.
Coming out of retirement.
Ed.
I may not be able to respond right away, as I'm going away for a few days.
I appreciate any thoughts you may have. I haven't done anything in quite
a while, been out of touch.
 
What I would do

Keep your max bet at 1% of your bankroll.
If you bet too much you will very likely lose your entire bankroll, then be forced to save up again from scratch.

Budget your income and set aside an amount of money you can afford to live without.
If you don't have enough money to spread 1-12 right now (keeping max bet at 1% of bankroll)
Wong into positive counts and exit on negative counts.
With wonging you don't need the full bet spread and can easily lay down 1% of your bankroll per hand in positive counts.

Trust me, feed your bankroll every week by $50-$100 + all your winnings and it will grow at a steady rate.
Bet too much and you will lose your bankroll over and over again.
 
It is a felony now

and they would not just take it. They would send you to jail. The police and courts love casinos and will protect them. If you knew Spec you are not young. Do not spend your last years in jail. It is not worth the risk.
 
what me worry ?

with a dime in the joint a fellow could sharpen his theoretical 21 skills, between the marx and lenin readings. and with a clandestine, felon banked 21 game therein, could be the fellow would accumulate enough cigarettes to maintain the junk addiction.

sounds like a win-win.
 
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