KO overestimates advantage at the key count

#1
I did a BE comparision in a Single deck with kO and AO11 with ACe side.
I did it for about 500 rounds . Sometimes when I am at keycount(RC =2) for KO
corresponding AO11 true count is either zero or minus whichh makes me think that KO overestimates advantage. Any thoughts on this or am I doing something wrong?
 

phantom007

Well-Known Member
#2
You are Right, in that you realized that you were Wrong, in which case, of course, you were Right. Comparing Indicies from Counting System A vs. B are rarely comparable/interchangeable...especially if trying to compare an Unbalanced to a Balanced Counting System. As you have discovered, a -2 in one system, might be +1 in another...whether either is "most correct" is rarely important in the short and even the medium-term.

I read a recent post that stated something to the effect that "One is better off playing a Simple System perfectly, than a Complex System with occasional errors. Since I M/L "learned to count" with the AOII, I am reluctant to change it...though I often think about it, especially in 6D games.

In Medicine, there is a blood test called the "Protime", aka PT...it is used to measure the "blood thinning" effect of a drug called Coumadin (warfarin, D-Con). The PT had one BIG problem...in the USA, the PT was calculated using Rabbit blood as Control...in the rest of the world, sheep blood was used. Due to the inherit difference in Clotting Factors present in the blood of various mammals, the problem was that:

"Anti-coagulation studies done in the USA could not be compared to

those performed everywhere else."

So, lots of good science was left to "educated speculation".

THEN COMES THE "INR" = International Ratio.

This "INR" corrects for species differences, and thus the INR, but not the PT used to calculate the INR, can be compared across geographic boundaries with little trepidation.

So, back to the real world, i.e., Blackjack, a similar INR could likely be calculated...however, efficiencies and correlations likely already accomplish the same.
 
Top