Lifetime ROR vs Double Barrier ROR--- How should I play it?

MJ1

Well-Known Member
Perhaps I am going about this all wrong. I initially devised a betting ramp that used a spread of 2x1 unit to 2x20 units. I capped it at 20 units because that is what a 60k bank would permit and maintain about a 5% lifetime ROR. But should I really be concerned with simple ROR when there are real world constraints in place?

In other words, rather then worry about simple ROR, wouldn't it be more practical to just use the double barrier calculator to assess ROR? The life of the bank is 400 hours (short, I know) and the goal will probably be about 40k. So, say I recompute my ramp with a larger unit such that the simple ROR calculator now brings back 25% ROR but the DB calculator reports a 5% ROR. Is this a smart way to play it? A 25% ROR is almost double kelly, but then again I am not playing for an eternity anyway.

Note: I am not resizing my unit regardless if my bank grows or shrinks, so I don't think the geometric growth rate of the bank will be come into play

Thanks for any insight,
MJ
 

rukus

Well-Known Member
you can size to a bank's lifetime using the double barrier formula, but then what? what about the next bank? and the next after that? if you plan to play more than one bank of 400 hours, you will probably want to find your cumulative ROR. http://bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/riskofruin.shtml

if you play anything more than a few banks your cumulative ROR probably approach your lifetime ROR anyway.

now if this is for an individual one-time venture then i see no issue using the DB formula for that bank. but just realize that AS SOON AS YOU PLAY A HAND, your ROR has changed as you are not changing your unit sizes. so if you take a huge hit on hand 1 of the bank (say losing a few splits and DAS), you no longer have something close to 5% ROR, but significantly higher. on the flip side, if ou made a killing on first hand, your ROR is now lower than 5%. just remember your ROR is constantly in flux.
 
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MJ1

Well-Known Member
rukus said:
you can size to a bank's lifetime using the double barrier formula, but then what? what about the next bank? and the next after that? if you plan to play more than one bank of 400 hours, you will probably want to find your cumulative ROR. http://bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/riskofruin.shtml
I plan to play more than one bank. I figure I will reinvest some of the money made into the next bank and increase unit size by 50% of the increase in bank. This way CROR should remain fairly constant over a number of banks.

If you play anything more than a few banks your cumulative ROR will probably approach your lifetime ROR anyway.
See above.

now if this is for an individual one-time venture then i see no issue using the DB formula for that bank. but just realize that AS SOON AS YOU PLAY A HAND, your ROR has changed as you are not changing your unit sizes. so if you take a huge hit on hand 1 of the bank (say losing a few splits and DAS), you no longer have something close to 5% ROR, but significantly higher. on the flip side, if ou made a killing on first hand, your ROR is now lower than 5%. just remember your ROR is constantly in flux.
Right.

MJ
 
The most important thing is to make sure your calculations- win rate, ruin and all others, represent what you are going to be actually doing.

If you are planning on hitting the road with a finite, non-replenishable bankroll and never having to get a job against for the rest of your lifetime, lifetime RoR is the way to go. Don't forget to consider your expenses. The required BR is more than you can imagine.

If you are planning on going on a BJ trip with a finite bankroll and want to minimize your risk of ending that trip early, trip RoR is the way to go. Most of us are employed and play to increase our income, not as a sole income, so our needs and acceptable risks are different than a full-time pro. We can afford to go broke until payday. We cannot afford to spend a week of vacation time working for minimum wage. It is the opposite for a full-timer.

Recommend determine what your acceptable win rate is first, then calculate the game, play style, and bankroll needed to make it so.
 

rukus

Well-Known Member
apologies for delayed response, i have been traveling. monkey presents a good way to look at it. determine an acceptable win rate first and then what type of commitment this will be for you. it appears to me like you will be doing this part time, and as such probably dont have to worry tooooo much about expenses (but dont neglect them). i do this mostly part time but plan to do it forever, so i dont set a "trip" roll. hence i use lifetime ROR for myself. when sizing a stake to take with me on any given trip, as monkey says, i dont want to be left with a week to go on a trip and no br to play, so i use the trip ror formulas to size the stake i take. in general, on any given trip more than a few days i have at least half my BR available to me.
 

Tarzan

Banned
Replenishable vs. Nonreplenishable

There are some interesting articles and stuff on bj21.com and in some of the standard bill of fare blackjack books on ROR to include a few nifty tips that are very simplistic money management tips-Rukus pointed one out on cumulative ROR. The biggest factor is what someone pointed out, which is nonreplenishable bankroll as opposed to a replenishable bankroll. A replenishable bankroll obviously can operate with a much higher ROR and this should be the first and foremost consideration. A non-replenishable bankroll has to be a LARGE number and you have to have a near zero ROR. At least that's the way I have always done it. Weigh out linear gain vs. exponential gain based on replenishable vs. nonreplenishable and find that perfect comfort zone on that X-Y graph!
 
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zengrifter

Banned
Why will the bet sizes not fluctuate during the BR life? Seems like an unnecessary restriction.

Also, when contemplating this sort of strategy yo can be best served by calculating your personal SD, rather than placing the entire calc on some simulation/theory SD. zg
 

Tarzan

Banned
Money Management

Just the fact that the original poster, MJ1 is looking at this seriously and realizes that money management is as equally important and critical as the counting method is significant and reassuring. In my eyes, he is destined to be a winner!

Years ago, I was a corporate type with a very large replenishable bankroll so I played very differently than I do today! I operated at a 5-10% ROR of what I tossed out there specifically for blackjack and thought nothing of it, playing essentially "part time". I had overall phenomenal success and never "sweated" any losses along the way. Money management ALWAYS comes into play but there is in fact a huge difference when you are operating on a replenishable bankroll and have multiple sources of investments and income.

I have long since retired at an early, unheard of age to retire at having done quite well in the big picture. I began playing blackjack full time at that point and there is a HUGE difference in the way I started playing at that point, wanting a zero or near zero ROR. My bet size went way down and what I deemed to be an appropriate "standard bankroll" went way up. I am intentionally leaving out specific numbers and sticking with generalizations to avoid putting too much personal information on a public message board but you get the idea. I have played much differently, still successfully with smaller bet sizing, while still using essentially the same spread and tactics making it about impossible for me to bust out and go broke.

Something I wrote in a private note to someone went sort of like this:

Sometimes it scares the heck out of me to see someone say,” I just started learning to play and count cards about two weeks ago and so I am going to risk the sum total of my meager savings at this since I just lost my job... what can you guys tell me for pointers to make sure I win?" (Or nearly the equivalent of a whacky statement like that).

How often do you see,” Well, I have been perfecting a strategy for the last several years to include an advanced count, aspects of clump tracking, side counts and have compiled a huge amount of data on Sims, ROR and money management principles. I have run very successful trials at low minimums under a variety of actual casino conditions and am gauging that approximately 1/2 a million should keep my lifetime ROR to less than 1% if I play it right and I will still be quite profitable." TONS of posts like this from new players, right? WRONG! Hahaha They say stuff like in the first paragraph of this message and it really is scary.

I write the things I write because I see what happens to people on a daily basis. I write things that I HOPE people will look at and say "Am I sure about this and properly prepared?" How many times during the course of your day do you see idiotic behavior at the casino (made by people who can't afford to even BE at a casino as far as I can tell). You expect the typical gambler to lose but you also expect someone that is an aspiring advantage player to lose from being ill prepared and going off half-cocked, unfortunately. I guess it is worth it to me to go off topic and be chastised for it if it helps an aspiring player be a bit more careful and take more time to a better player with this making the difference between them being a success and them busting out and failing miserably leading to their financial ruin.


ZenGrifter mentions paying attention to the sims but looking at your personal financial capability and making the most rational decision that insures your financial security since a computer sim is a generalization not neccessarily catered to each and every individual and he's right.

Flash is a great guy to go to for hard statistical data and can go on for hours and provide quality references on different theories and formulas on ROR that come from leading experts. He does not have the sort of bankroll he operates on because he is a dummie!

Money management and weighing out the stretch between "cautious" compared to "optimistic" comes into play in every major financial decision in our lives, not just playing blackjack and is the reason I am at the very comfortable point that I am at in my life. Diversification of income, investments and assets combined with logical, rational choices will make you a winner!
 
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rukus

Well-Known Member
not to blow smoke up anyone's :eek::eek::eek: but well stated.

Tarzan said:
Just the fact that the original poster, MJ1 is looking at this seriously and realizes that money management is as equally important and critical as the counting method is significant and reassuring. In my eyes, he is destined to be a winner!

Years ago, I was a corporate type with a very large replenishable bankroll so I played very differently than I do today! I operated at a 5-10% ROR of what I tossed out there specifically for blackjack and thought nothing of it, playing essentially "part time". I had overall phenomenal success and never "sweated" any losses along the way. Money management ALWAYS comes into play but there is in fact a huge difference when you are operating on a replenishable bankroll and have multiple sources of investments and income.

I have long since retired at an early, unheard of age to retire at having done quite well in the big picture. I began playing blackjack full time at that point and there is a HUGE difference in the way I started playing at that point, wanting a zero or near zero ROR. My bet size went way down and what I deemed to be an appropriate "standard bankroll" went way up. I am intentionally leaving out specific numbers and sticking with generalizations to avoid putting too much personal information on a public message board but you get the idea. I have played much differently, still successfully with smaller bet sizing, while still using essentially the same spread and tactics making it about impossible for me to bust out and go broke.

Something I wrote in a private note to someone went sort of like this:

Sometimes it scares the heck out of me to see someone say,” I just started learning to play and count cards about two weeks ago and so I am going to risk the sum total of my meager savings at this since I just lost my job... what can you guys tell me for pointers to make sure I win?" (Or nearly the equivalent of a whacky statement like that).

How often do you see,” Well, I have been perfecting a strategy for the last several years to include an advanced count, aspects of clump tracking, side counts and have compiled a huge amount of data on Sims, ROR and money management principles. I have run very successful trials at low minimums under a variety of actual casino conditions and am gauging that approximately 1/2 a million should keep my lifetime ROR to less than 1% if I play it right and I will still be quite profitable." TONS of posts like this from new players, right? WRONG! Hahaha They say stuff like in the first paragraph of this message and it really is scary.

I write the things I write because I see what happens to people on a daily basis. I write things that I HOPE people will look at and say "Am I sure about this and properly prepared?" How many times during the course of your day do you see idiotic behavior at the casino (made by people who can't afford to even BE at a casino as far as I can tell). You expect the typical gambler to lose but you also expect someone that is an aspiring advantage player to lose from being ill prepared and going off half-cocked, unfortunately. I guess it is worth it to me to go off topic and be chastised for it if it helps an aspiring player be a bit more careful and take more time to a better player with this making the difference between them being a success and them busting out and failing miserably leading to their financial ruin.


....

Money management and weighing out the stretch between "cautious" compared to "optimistic" comes into play in every major financial decision in our lives, not just playing blackjack and is the reason I am at the very comfortable point that I am at in my life. Diversification of income, investments and assets combined with logical, rational choices will make you a winner!
 

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
No Doubt About the High ROR

As soon as you think you may play to the bank twice then the ROR formula should without doubt be used.:joker::whip: Looking for a way to justify overbetting is not a very good idea.:joker::whip:
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
Why will the bet sizes not fluctuate during the BR life? Seems like an unnecessary restriction.

Also, when contemplating this sort of strategy yo can be best served by calculating your personal SD, rather than placing the entire calc on some simulation/theory SD. zg
Well, if you have a sim, it can only assume one set of assumptions at a time including betting like a robot lol.

How can one calc one's personal SD without having a baseline (ideally from a sim) to calc how far one may be from expected?

So I don't see a sim as a "generalization" by any means. I see it as a way to know exactly what to expect no matter what one wants to do. Or actually does. It's the fact it can be "particularized" to every imaginable set of games etc that makes it so useful.Or so it seems to me :)

Whatever, to me a "replenishable" roll means a roll one will constantly replenish by some amount at equal interval of times and one bases how much to bet based on that assumption.

I guess here, it just maybe means a series of "fixed" rolls? Which is fine too.
 
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