Lets just discuss BJ as if we were having a drink together . My bank roll is $1000 a trip. I don't go expecting to win or lose more then $300 ,although since I have cut my swing back ,I have won most of my trips. I enjoy playing & play for comps. counting rooms & meals for my wife & self <I am doing darn good. I love playing 2 hands at $10 & cut back to 1 hand with a minus 10 C. Because of my bank roll I limit my swing to $15 & $25. I play a 6 deck shoe D stays on any 17. I advance my bet to $15 any plus count & $25 if C is + 15 or over ,although + 15 with appx 3 decks left does make little spiders run up & down my neck. PB has told to me once I cut back to one hand , I had to play the shoe out before going back to 2 hands. Other then that(NO HEAT) GOD I HATE TO LOSE !!!!! I had tried every betting system know to man & believe me they do not work! I would leave feeling like I had the flu for several days after losing. Even using BS , they are going to get you in the long run & they know that. If I bet my $1000 BR on one hand ,win or lose would not get me a trip to the buffet . If we can turn that minus .40% into a plus .40% would it make sense that the longer you played ,the more likly you are to win. I will discuss my medhods of counting if anyone is interested . Remember ,this is just light conversation . Pogo
Light consversation
- Thread starter pogostick
- Start date
HockeXpert
Well-Known Member
Pogo:
Lightly put, that small spread (1X10 - 2x25) is not going to get you ahead, unless MAYBE if you are playing phenominal penetration and if convert the RC to TC. At the very least, assuming you know bs well and stick to it, you won't get killed (too often) and you'll enjoy some free stuff. If that's all you want out of this, that is great! It beats the pants off betting with your gut or using some crazy system.
I say to each his own and use as much or as little knowledge as you are comfortable with and enjoy yourself. This is not a job for everyone. In the end you'll likely come out ahead, mentally, and enjoy the welcome of casinos everywhere.
HockeXpert
Lightly put, that small spread (1X10 - 2x25) is not going to get you ahead, unless MAYBE if you are playing phenominal penetration and if convert the RC to TC. At the very least, assuming you know bs well and stick to it, you won't get killed (too often) and you'll enjoy some free stuff. If that's all you want out of this, that is great! It beats the pants off betting with your gut or using some crazy system.
I say to each his own and use as much or as little knowledge as you are comfortable with and enjoy yourself. This is not a job for everyone. In the end you'll likely come out ahead, mentally, and enjoy the welcome of casinos everywhere.
HockeXpert
aslan
Well-Known Member
Since you just want some light conversation, I'll try to talk in that vein.pogostick said:
I've tried to use the light spread in plus counts like you, just trying to play a break even or better game to avoid the risk of large losses that sometimes happen in plus counts with max bet out. But what "gets" me is the lure of "this may be the big one" so I find myself putting out the max bet just like I'm supposed to (but wasn't going to), and sometimes win and sometimes hit the big negative swing for a large loss.
The latter happened in AC last week. I could not be satisfied to play the break even game, amass comps, and possibly win a little---I had to play it straight and in short order was down $1,000, so like any red-blooded American lad (I flatter myself) I moved from the $10 table to the $25 table and proceeded to launch myself into another $1,700 deficit, $2,700 in all--a far cry from the conservative game I intended to play, and almost my entire trip bankroll gone.
It's the lure of the "mathematics supports max bet in plus counts" along with the gambler's fallacy, "the big one is overdue," that keeps me playing the "right way" and enduring so many swings in direction. I did finally pull this one out by the skin of my teeth, but $350 for 18 hours of play is not my idea of fun, along with nearly going bust on my trip bankroll. Someone suggested that I had made my $20 an hour, but looking at the near disaster and the marathon struggle, I have to ask myself as I have so many times before, "Is it worth it to put so much cash at risk for the promise of a long run win of $20-$25 an hour, that is, if I do manage to escape the big one?"
I am over three years into counting now, and nothing has changed. You have to go through the hell of roller coaster swings over and over again to finally come out a-fraction-of-what-you-risk ahead. I keep saying I'm not going to do this any more, but because I'm beating it by dribs and drabs, I continue to enter this contest of self flagellation for want of a better description.
Sometimes it seems like every game is easy and the cash will never stop flowing my way--then as if on cue, the roller coaster begins again--all the "easy" money gone in a flash--dig a hole, dig out of a hole, dig a hole, dig out of a hole. I admit it's a long term winner, but I just don't like the rhythm of the game. And I don't like the short term risk.
So far I have never had a win as large as my largest loss. It tempts me to thing that I'm overdue for the big one ("gambler's fallacy") again. Also, I am always cognizant of the fact that a few negative swings without those offsetting positive swings, and I'm totally out of business--caput!--busted--flat broke, bankroll-wise.
I guess I should focus on the positive side. A few positive swings, and voila--I'm on my way--bankroll tripled--new found confidence--high limit room, here I come. lol
Whatever. One thing I have found--no matter what the mathematics says--I'm gambling. 1% or 2% is nothing. It's d**m near like flipping coins. I am sure that many a gambler has gone broke with "a little the best of it."
Now you've heard my whining. I hate to hear a grown person cry. lol Nobody is twisting my arm to play. I know what I am in for. I just wish I could stop myself from playing the "right way" sometimes and stick to that break even or better game. After all, I'm only a part time player hoping to pick up a few bucks while enjoying? myself. lol pathetic.
UK-21
Well-Known Member
Interesting post Aslan.
I think it throws up the issue of the divide between (a) the serious pro / semi pro APs who go hell for leather to maximise their return and make money and (b) recreational players who play for the crack of beating the house at their own game and look upon it as entertainment that you get paid to experience (sometimes!).
I've written in previous posts that for me it's purely a hobby. I don't play with a dedicated bankroll (so in many cases when I have the time I don't have any spare cash, and vice versa - hence playing time is limited) and I tend to do something that has no mathematical basis - walk away if I'm 20+ units up after an hour or more's play. The reason? Walking away a winner feels good, and walking away having seen winnings go back to the house, and then some, doesn't. Also if the bit I have over what I arrived with pays for the petrol, a meal afterwards and covers double pocket money for my daughter that week, so much to the good.
I don't always do the"right thing" either, despite what the maths dictate, ie pay for the privilege of a reduced long term loss rate by splitting 8s against a dealer 9 at a high count with a max bet out.
So, enjoy playing - and if it starts to become painful, either mentally or with regard to the wealth meter, know when to stop. I think it's very easy for people to become addicted, or to suffer compulsions, with this sort of thing and with those of us who have made the effort to count and to see when player advantages arise it's easy to kid ourselves the maths are on our side and it's only a matter of time before the money rolls in. It may never happen.
Good cards!
I think it throws up the issue of the divide between (a) the serious pro / semi pro APs who go hell for leather to maximise their return and make money and (b) recreational players who play for the crack of beating the house at their own game and look upon it as entertainment that you get paid to experience (sometimes!).
I've written in previous posts that for me it's purely a hobby. I don't play with a dedicated bankroll (so in many cases when I have the time I don't have any spare cash, and vice versa - hence playing time is limited) and I tend to do something that has no mathematical basis - walk away if I'm 20+ units up after an hour or more's play. The reason? Walking away a winner feels good, and walking away having seen winnings go back to the house, and then some, doesn't. Also if the bit I have over what I arrived with pays for the petrol, a meal afterwards and covers double pocket money for my daughter that week, so much to the good.
I don't always do the"right thing" either, despite what the maths dictate, ie pay for the privilege of a reduced long term loss rate by splitting 8s against a dealer 9 at a high count with a max bet out.
So, enjoy playing - and if it starts to become painful, either mentally or with regard to the wealth meter, know when to stop. I think it's very easy for people to become addicted, or to suffer compulsions, with this sort of thing and with those of us who have made the effort to count and to see when player advantages arise it's easy to kid ourselves the maths are on our side and it's only a matter of time before the money rolls in. It may never happen.
Good cards!
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
heh, heh, so much for full kelly.aslan said:
whatever, lucky enough to have a position (vantage point) in life where maybe it doesn't matter all that much if you don't go hog wild, sorta thing.
sounds like though, maybe you are torn a bit on choosing a path with all this stuff, sorta thing.
same here i guess and i don't have any answers but i find the poet Keats having an interesting take on this uncertainty stuff:
- I mean Negative Capability, that is when man is capable of being in uncertainties, Mysteries, doubts without any irritable reaching after fact & reason -
lol, kind of i guess it's like trying to find a pair of comfortable shoes, sorta thing, dam near impossible.
but too me maybe, thing is try and know best one can the right thing to do and only do that all the while maintaining ones cool, sorta thing.
aslan
Well-Known Member
Yes, all of that.sagefr0g said:
It strikes me after a last minute rally after being in the throes of a deep negative swing, or after a positive swing that came just in time to cancel out yesterday's negative swing, that what if in stead of a redeeming positive swing following a destructive negative swing, I instead ran up against two more deep negative swings-----why that would be disastrous! It would virtually wipe out my entire bankroll. It may be prohibitive according to my RoR calculation, but if it can happen once, it can happen twice in a row, and it can happen three times in a row, no matter what this uninvolved, could-care-less RoR calculation has to say about it. You would think that sooner or later that double or triple whammy is going to hit, the perfect storm, if you will, and I don't want to be there when it happens. But that's just the point, sooner or later it's going to happen, if I live long enough, and I will be there, because this is about me and my bankroll and my insistence on doing things the "right way." :laugh: :laugh:
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Some Thoughts
All play is continuous, so getting to excited over wins or depressed over losses needs to be avoided.
If one has multiple styles of play then the long run is lengthened.
The problem with timid play is not losing those very large bets, the problem is those many negative expectation bets that are large in relation to the timid large bets.
The math of variance is known and the ror or risk of large drawdown. If one is overly concerned one can always be more conservative in kelly fraction to bet.
:joker::whip:
All play is continuous, so getting to excited over wins or depressed over losses needs to be avoided.
If one has multiple styles of play then the long run is lengthened.
The problem with timid play is not losing those very large bets, the problem is those many negative expectation bets that are large in relation to the timid large bets.
The math of variance is known and the ror or risk of large drawdown. If one is overly concerned one can always be more conservative in kelly fraction to bet.
:joker::whip: