I am sorry if I have been beating a dead horse lately. I tore my calf muscle really bad and the combination of pain, disruption of work and additional medical visits has understandably made me a little tense. I had an MRI today so I should know soon if they will operate to make sure I don't pull my achilles tendon the rest of the way off my calf. For anyone I was uncharacteristically short with I apologize.
What got me going to begin with is this notion to hit the casinos as hard as you can with a huge spread to have as high an EV as you can regardless of how that affects your games and the game in general. If that is what you want to do I can't stop you but I wish you would consider the ways you have at your disposal to up your EV that have an upside rather than a downside.
The downside of the high spread:
It is not so much the spread itself but the size of the max bet as some have correctly pointed out but the spread for the same max bet has some heat considerations. It is about staying within the tolerance of the casino so there is no one size fits all answer to what is a smart limit on spread or max bet is. The better the game the more heat you should expect to encounter. When you press beyond casino tolerance two things can happen. You kill the game for yourself or they decide for whatever reason that they need to make the rules or pen more unfavorable killing the good game for everyone. Maybe they don't want all the extra staff necessary to weed out those exceeding their tolerance level. Maybe they are worried about legal concerns. Maybe they just don't want to be so vulnerable to big losses in the future. No matter what being greedy and pushing the store's tolerance level is bad for everyone. I didn't even talk about the affect on variance a large spread.
What is in your power to up your EV with an upside:
SCORE as the most important thing to maximize not EV.
Multiple hands reduce variance.
Always insure blackjack at all but minimum bet.
Realize insuring good hands at small insurance disadvantage reduces variance while increasing long term EV.
Try to find a store that has LS, a very important rule, and learn the indices.
Play a system that is strong overall (BC, PE and IC).
Learn to use risk averse indices.
Add a side count or two to your game.
You should wong out when the shoe has a poor chance of recovery.
Penetration is the most important factor when choosing a game.
After a big shoe leave win or lose.
You can decrease your spread and win more by following the above advice.
Shorter sessions now have higher EV and lower variance.
All of the above strengthens your game, increases longevity, increases your long term EV, lowers your variance, increases your SCORE and allows a smaller spread to be more profitable. All it takes is a little effort. Grad school for the serious AP if you like.
The other thing that got me going was the shortsighted plan of attack that many APs use when a great opportunity arises from a promotion. Like the flawed plan of attack they use for their regular play that centers around short term EV rather than long term EV. They calculate what gives them the biggest advantage. They go after a month long promotion in a manner that assures it ends in days. They may be looking at a month of 12% advantage for a percentage of hands and decide the smart thing to do is play it so hard it lasts a day or two. How is that smart. Everyone could play up to their normal maximum bet and try not to kill the goose that is laying the golden egg. They would reap in huge profits that are all but assured as variance is negated with enough playing time. Instead they only get enough play in that variance makes actually profiting questionable. These people believe they are maximizing EV but maximizing long term EV takes a totally different approach. You must see the big picture not what you see under the microscope. Because of these people APs guard these promos and rightfully so. A smart player ready to milk the promo over its scheduled run will clean up playing well past his NO. The short sighted AP will play with a much higher EV but has to settle for how variance leaves him before he reaches his NO. A pretty dumb approach to the best opportunity that may present itself all year.
Think your plan of attack through while considering the big picture. Your bankroll will thank you. You will enjoy many happy returns in every sense of the words.
What got me going to begin with is this notion to hit the casinos as hard as you can with a huge spread to have as high an EV as you can regardless of how that affects your games and the game in general. If that is what you want to do I can't stop you but I wish you would consider the ways you have at your disposal to up your EV that have an upside rather than a downside.
The downside of the high spread:
It is not so much the spread itself but the size of the max bet as some have correctly pointed out but the spread for the same max bet has some heat considerations. It is about staying within the tolerance of the casino so there is no one size fits all answer to what is a smart limit on spread or max bet is. The better the game the more heat you should expect to encounter. When you press beyond casino tolerance two things can happen. You kill the game for yourself or they decide for whatever reason that they need to make the rules or pen more unfavorable killing the good game for everyone. Maybe they don't want all the extra staff necessary to weed out those exceeding their tolerance level. Maybe they are worried about legal concerns. Maybe they just don't want to be so vulnerable to big losses in the future. No matter what being greedy and pushing the store's tolerance level is bad for everyone. I didn't even talk about the affect on variance a large spread.
What is in your power to up your EV with an upside:
SCORE as the most important thing to maximize not EV.
Multiple hands reduce variance.
Always insure blackjack at all but minimum bet.
Realize insuring good hands at small insurance disadvantage reduces variance while increasing long term EV.
Try to find a store that has LS, a very important rule, and learn the indices.
Play a system that is strong overall (BC, PE and IC).
Learn to use risk averse indices.
Add a side count or two to your game.
You should wong out when the shoe has a poor chance of recovery.
Penetration is the most important factor when choosing a game.
After a big shoe leave win or lose.
You can decrease your spread and win more by following the above advice.
Shorter sessions now have higher EV and lower variance.
All of the above strengthens your game, increases longevity, increases your long term EV, lowers your variance, increases your SCORE and allows a smaller spread to be more profitable. All it takes is a little effort. Grad school for the serious AP if you like.
The other thing that got me going was the shortsighted plan of attack that many APs use when a great opportunity arises from a promotion. Like the flawed plan of attack they use for their regular play that centers around short term EV rather than long term EV. They calculate what gives them the biggest advantage. They go after a month long promotion in a manner that assures it ends in days. They may be looking at a month of 12% advantage for a percentage of hands and decide the smart thing to do is play it so hard it lasts a day or two. How is that smart. Everyone could play up to their normal maximum bet and try not to kill the goose that is laying the golden egg. They would reap in huge profits that are all but assured as variance is negated with enough playing time. Instead they only get enough play in that variance makes actually profiting questionable. These people believe they are maximizing EV but maximizing long term EV takes a totally different approach. You must see the big picture not what you see under the microscope. Because of these people APs guard these promos and rightfully so. A smart player ready to milk the promo over its scheduled run will clean up playing well past his NO. The short sighted AP will play with a much higher EV but has to settle for how variance leaves him before he reaches his NO. A pretty dumb approach to the best opportunity that may present itself all year.
Think your plan of attack through while considering the big picture. Your bankroll will thank you. You will enjoy many happy returns in every sense of the words.