Lost 700 units in one sesion need help

daniel27 said:
i just lost 700 units in 3 hours :confused:, with this data ,,what are the odds of this?? :
win rate 334 dollars
SD 2804 dollars
hands 480( i play two hands most head up)
units 10 dollars BR 40000
kelly 0,6
ROR 3.3%

the calculator of cvcx says 18.9% but it seems too high and of course i never had win the half of 700 units
thanks any response
suggestions ???
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Ran a quick check on BJRM (blackjack risk manager) for session results, using your parameters for win rate and SD -- but had to fudge the number of hands played down to 340, playing one hand at a time to achieve a $2800 one hundred hand SD. Chance of losing $7000 spreading from $10-to-$600 was stated as 13% over that period.
 
Ok so we have determined that losing 12 max bets in 3 hours is not out of the norn at all. Hell, losing 12 max bets in minutes is very possible. :(
And of course cvcx confirms this. So the only question that remains is are you overbetting?? Overbetting your bankroll... well maybe, maybe not. Overbetting your comfort level? Definately sounds it, if you are concerned about losing 12 max bets. I think this was the thought behind zg's post about taking a time out to evaluate your situation and play.
 
StandardDeviant said:
Is it realistic to plan on playing that kind of spread most places? I've never done it and have thought it would be "too obvious."
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In most places, definately no. I have no idea about the specifics of this case. The poster seems to think he will receive no heat. He could be right. I have no idea. If he is, color me green with envy.
 
Renzey said:
Ran a quick check on BJRM (blackjack risk manager) for session results, using your parameters for win rate and SD -- but had to fudge the number of hands played down to 340, playing one hand at a time to achieve a $2800 one hundred hand SD. Chance of losing $7000 spreading from $10-to-$600 was stated as 13% over that period.
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Ok thanks that is what i need to know , i will play with a lower ROR and lower max bet , is nice to know about u again in the forum , i m plannig a trip to Las Vegas this summer ( your autumn) and check Mentor there , right now 2100 units up , i play only weekends so i let you know
PS i have your poker book and I plan to get into that in 2010.
 
daniel27 said:
Ok thanks that is what i need to know , i will play with a lower ROR and lower max bet , is nice to know about u again in the forum , i m plannig a trip to Las Vegas this summer ( your autumn) and check Mentor there , right now 2100 units up , i play only weekends so i let you know
PS i have your poker book and I plan to get into that in 2010.
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I wouldn't recomment spreading $10 to $600 for a three hour period in Vegas. :eek:
 
Cover plays eat into your already slim advantage. Sometimes they may be necessary, but I wouldn't worry much about it if you are playing a $25 unit of less, especially as an infrequent visitor. Just play short sessions of less than an hour and you will be fine.
 
kewljason said:
Cover plays eat into your already slim advantage. Sometimes they may be necessary, but I wouldn't worry much about it if you are playing a $25 unit of less, especially as an infrequent visitor. Just play short sessions of less than an hour and you will be fine.
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sorry, i mean 1-10 cover in the hotel casino where i will stay ( comps play Anderson again ) and play short sesions without cover in the others casinos , i already aware of the lost of advantage but thanks anyway
daniel
 
daniel27 said:
i do not live in USA ( I read a lot but i dont speak english) , that was using cvcx kelly 0,5 ROR 3,3% , now i play with 1,8%
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You may be doing something very wrong with your bet ramp. At half Kelly a $1200 bet on a 40K BR indicates an edge of 5-6% over the house. This kind of edge is uncommon counting cards and almost nonexistent in shoe games. Try to make logical sense of the numbers, it could be an error in your input to cvcx or your understanding of the output. Possibly it could also be a program error but I don't want to speculate about the software . It is likely if you were frequently making $1200 bets you were playing with a much higher ROR than you think.
BW
 
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Brock Windsor said:
You may be doing something very wrong with your bet ramp. At half Kelly a $1200 bet on a 40K BR indicates an edge of 5-6% over the house. This kind of edge is uncommon counting cards and almost nonexistent in shoe games. Try to make logical sense of the numbers, it could be an error in your input to cvcx or your understanding of the output. Possibly it could also be a program error but I don't want to speculate about the software . It is likely if you were frequently making $1200 bets you were playing with a much higher ROR than you think.
RC
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do you use cvcx? i can send you the image , and is 4.9% exactly occurs 1% of the time app tc > 26 (mentor)
 
i think the problem is you never sim a spread like this i check my cvcx and with a spread of 1-10 , my bets should be 25*2 and 250*2 ( TC 13 ) .
daniel
 
hi daniel 27
sorry to hear about your loss

your figures
win rate - $334 - i am assuming this is your hourly win rate?
SD - $2,804 - i am assuming this is your hourly SD rate?
you played 3 hours.
Loss of 700 units - assuming this means $7,000?

if my assumptions are correct then the number of hands that you played dont matter (since they already go into calculating your win rate). Your ROR and BR are also irrelevant for calculating the likelihood of losing $7,000.

for 3 hours:
your EV would be 3 x 334 = $1,002
your SD would be sqrt(3) x $2,804 = $4,857

thus a result 1 std dev below EV would be $1,002 - $4,857 = -$3,854
thus a result 2 std dev below EV would be $1,002 - (2x$4,857) = -$8,711

Thus a loss of $7k would be well within just 2 standard deviations.
In percentage terms, the chance of losing $7,000 or more would be 4.97% (using the normal distribution formula in MS Excel).

Hope that helps.

Matt
 
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