I hesitate to write this as many of the contributors to this list will find it contrary to everything they believe in. But some may find it informative as to the role luck ,or lack thereof, plays in these games we love to play.
On Thursday I drove from CA to Carson City, NV with some friends to attend the Nevada State Railway Museum’s annual fund raising events. My friends are interested in steam trains. I’m not. I went to do some gambling.
I’m pretty good at BS but not 100%, maybe 95%. I follow the progressive betting stratigy where I double the last bet if I lose (OK go ahead and vent). I have a bank roll of about $4g’s. Thursday afternoon I go to the Carson Nugget. Tables are $3 to $300, single deck, hit on soft 17, no double after split, etc. Nice people, good atmosphere, I like it there. A couple of hours playing $5 hands and I’m down about $1300. OK fine I’m having some bad luck. I’ll come back Friday and try again. Friday afternoon I’m playing
two spots at $25 each. So I’m betting 25-50-100-200. If I lose the $200 bet I start over at $25. A couple of times I was at the $200 limit on both spots and had to split both at the same time for a total of $800 on the table at once. Several times I lost the $200 limit and had to start over. By dinner time I’m up $2800. After dinner I come back and play a couple hours from 10pm to midnight (I’m an old goat and I need my sleep). I’m up another $1500.
Saturday I spend more time with my friends and we go to Virginia City and look around for old train tracks and things like that. They’re really into that old train stuff. That only leaves less than an hour till dinner so
I’m not real serious about winning anything big. I’m playing one spot at $5 a hand to pass the time. I sit down at a table with my favorite dealer (a lady of about 75 years) one on one and proceed to win every hand in the first deck and about 3/4’s of the hands in the next deck. She gets replaced by a gentleman who is a little better at winning. By dinner time I cash out and am up only $102.50 for my last session.
Total winnings for the trip: $3102.50. Lessons learned: While probability theory will accurately predict the outcome over an infinite number of hands, “luck” will determine the winner in the short term. That is why they have horse races.
Good luck to all!
PS- I relate this experience not for the purpose of encouraging anyone to follow my example but merely to show that there is more to this game than theoretical probabilities.
I could have just as easily lost my bank roll given some bad luck.
On Thursday I drove from CA to Carson City, NV with some friends to attend the Nevada State Railway Museum’s annual fund raising events. My friends are interested in steam trains. I’m not. I went to do some gambling.
I’m pretty good at BS but not 100%, maybe 95%. I follow the progressive betting stratigy where I double the last bet if I lose (OK go ahead and vent). I have a bank roll of about $4g’s. Thursday afternoon I go to the Carson Nugget. Tables are $3 to $300, single deck, hit on soft 17, no double after split, etc. Nice people, good atmosphere, I like it there. A couple of hours playing $5 hands and I’m down about $1300. OK fine I’m having some bad luck. I’ll come back Friday and try again. Friday afternoon I’m playing
two spots at $25 each. So I’m betting 25-50-100-200. If I lose the $200 bet I start over at $25. A couple of times I was at the $200 limit on both spots and had to split both at the same time for a total of $800 on the table at once. Several times I lost the $200 limit and had to start over. By dinner time I’m up $2800. After dinner I come back and play a couple hours from 10pm to midnight (I’m an old goat and I need my sleep). I’m up another $1500.
Saturday I spend more time with my friends and we go to Virginia City and look around for old train tracks and things like that. They’re really into that old train stuff. That only leaves less than an hour till dinner so
I’m not real serious about winning anything big. I’m playing one spot at $5 a hand to pass the time. I sit down at a table with my favorite dealer (a lady of about 75 years) one on one and proceed to win every hand in the first deck and about 3/4’s of the hands in the next deck. She gets replaced by a gentleman who is a little better at winning. By dinner time I cash out and am up only $102.50 for my last session.
Total winnings for the trip: $3102.50. Lessons learned: While probability theory will accurately predict the outcome over an infinite number of hands, “luck” will determine the winner in the short term. That is why they have horse races.
Good luck to all!
PS- I relate this experience not for the purpose of encouraging anyone to follow my example but merely to show that there is more to this game than theoretical probabilities.
I could have just as easily lost my bank roll given some bad luck.