sagefr0g said:
the only thing i could say as to those bust cards not being visible would be i quess it would be less of a problem for hi/lo to handle, maybe since you can consider unseen cards as not dealt when you determine your true count, but on the limited basis you describe it doesn't seem so important one way or the other, just as you allude. really no wrangle over it all or toes really stepped on. just me being overly argumentative, trying to show that even guys like you who are trying to do everything right aren't immune to straying (by no real fault of your own) from the scientific straight and narrow course. it's the sort of thing i do to the extreme. i don't find what you do in such a minor case as irrational in any way shape or form. it's just a mild case of voodoo is all. and i'll bet how you are handling it is the correct thing to do. and if you judge it by those charts like you say then it's not really even voodoo, it's just in the grand scheme the game plan suffers a bit from unforseen difficulties sort of thing.
right all those questions i was asking is probably (my guess) stuff that Snyder's charts cover. well except where i was nosey enough to ask how your results measure up against your expected value and standard deviation.
heck maybe that as well is covered by Snyder's book and/or how you set up your strategies.
admittedly, i was jerking your chain, i'm sorry. hey if you really play all that scientific, no voodoo and thats where your heart is, hats of to you. i was just getting the sense that the pot might have been calling the kettle black to a certain extent. see, hopefully you wouldn't find that sentiment demeaning comming from me, knowing the position that i hold on the matter of rigor vs voodoo and all. it's that very discovery i made about who i really was, essentially just by trying to do a serious scientific analysis of my results opposed to expected value and standard deviation. what i found was that as much as i had believed i was this genuine skilled AP, well, truth be known i found i was pretty much a voodoo practitioner that tryed to employ AP techniques. true story. man, let me tell you, when i looked back in time and at my results i was shocked at all the mistakes and mistaken beliefs and voodoo actions that i'd been putting into action.
I think of voodoo as planning to win with some bogus strategy. I don't think what I do is that. I play according to advantage guidelines, and if I miss a beat I try to make a rational in-flight adjustment. If I go too far astray, I abort the mission. Is there anything else I can possibly do. Not voodoo, Not.
What Snyder's charts give you a feel for is all the ways a particular game and pen could be approached and what the expected values of those different approaches yield. It gives you a sense of what you call wiggle room, that is, how different game plans can still keep you in the winner's column, but it also shows you how a simple change in approach can also put you in the losers column.
In his book, Snyder uses a combination of computer simulations and mathematical formulas to derive his data. He states that his data will be highly accurate for hiLo, whereas Zen will be slightly stronger and Red Seven will be slightly weaker. I'd say KO is in the same ball park as Red Seven. But he claims the data will be pretty accurate for most all counting systems. His purpose is to give the player guidance in choosing both the game and the betting strategies needed to survive as a counter and to maximize your earnings.
The book assumes a house edge of 0.5% equating to a dd game where the dealer must hit soft 17 and you can double down on any two cards. There are better and worse games, but this is at least a middle ground. If you are in a better or worse game then you have to adjust your expectation up or down accordingly. With KO he tells you that at pivot point you are 1% above your starting advantage. With KO, he says the charts are valid for comparing the profitability of games available to you, how much penetration you need, and what betting spread you need. But if you want data such as br requirements, fluctuations, optimal betting strategies, you have to either use the True Edge method of adjusting your running count, or switch to a balanced count like HiLo. He also assumes only one person is playing since the number of players and also the number of cards you get to see before you play your hand are too numerous for the purpose of drawing up accurate frequency distributions. If you are seated where you can see all the other players cards before you play your own, the distributions are are accurate enough for all practical purposes.
The charts show various penetrations with various betting strategies. For 50%, he shows 0:1, 0:1:2, 0:1:2:3, 0:1:2:4, 0:1:2:4:8, 1:2, 1:2:3, 1:2:4, 1:2:4:8, 1:2:4:8:16, and finally variable betting strategies. 0:1 means wonging in at some point and then flatbetting one unit from then on. 1:2:3 means betting 1 unti until a certain point, then 2 units until a certain point, then 3 units above a final point. He tracks the hands in terms of advantage, beginning with -4.5% and up to 8.0%, showing what percentage of hands would occur at each advantage percentage, and what your betting unit should be depending on how you implement your betting strategy. At each chart of a particular betting strategy, he shows 8 different ways or systems of applying that strategy. For example, he will show you 8 ways you might bet a 1:2:3 betting strategy. The 2 unit level may vary from system to system and also the 3 unit level, showing you in the final analysis which is the more profitable implementaion of that system.
For each of the 8 betting systems for a particular betting strategy and penetration he sums up the results showing the number of hands bet per hundred (which varys when you are wonging in), the average bet in fractions of units, the gain per hand using the particular system, and the win rate percentage. Finally, he shows you how many units you should win per hour, per 10 hours, per 100 hours, per 1000 hours, and per 10000 hours. Below each, he shows what your standard deviation would be for each of these situations. So if you want to you can figure out the bankroll you need by say for me figuring out how much you could lose at three standard deviations (expected win - 3 x std dev), which would put my risk at 1% or less.
All of the above is set forth for 50%, 65%, 75%, and 85% pen, with numerous betting strategies and 8 different systems for implementing those betting strategies for each combination pen percentage and betting strategy.
I have several of the books somewhere. I think for SD, DD and 6 deck. They were well worth the money for me, because it simplies all the hocus pocus math talk to where even I can understand it. I highly recommend them, but you may be hard pressed to find them anywhere except the gamblers' book shop in Vegas, I think it's near East Charleston and 11th street.
