Black swans hide in plain sight.
sagefr0g said:
yeah, just me maybe but keeping tabs on luck is a cool thing.
far as AP stuff goes, i think maybe the idea is, well short term anything can happen sort of thing but if there is an edge or bias for some process along with consistency over time then that edge or bias will make it's self known while the two sided nature of luck will sort of cancel out.
what's interesting to me and it's probably just a figment of my own ignorance of the issue, but anyway it's interesting how as AP's we deal with probability and that element of uncertainty that exists in the short term. i dunno it's like we have this known stuff, some expectation but it's unknown what's really gonna happen in the short term, but we can know some range of results and the degree of likelihood of that range of results presenting in the short term, sort of thing.
so i guess we kind of know something about the unknown in the short term, lmao.
confirmation bias i guess it's called is a tricky, funny thing, that said it's been an interesting experience for me for what appears so often, say your trying some AP move and well maybe you got it right, and maybe not but how pleasing it is that luck or skill the result comes out what you was hoping for.:cat:
Interesting, too, that there is no
certainty even in the long run. Yes, simulations of billions of trials show convincingly that things will work out in the long run; however, every human being's long run is hostage to his actual lifetime. Every so often, and don't ask me how often, someone will have no chance of reaching the long run, at least, not in their lifetime, which in practical terms might just as well be eternity. lol But take heart. By the same token, some people should be able to reach the long run day in and day out, I mean to say, never experiencing even one more run of short term negative variance for the rest of their lives. There are an infinite number of black swans, but unfortunately, our lives are too short to find many or any of them because of how far apart they are typically dispersed. lol Luck is after all simply luck! And nothing has to even out in any one person's lifetime. Another cliche, yet true--> Life is not fair. :sad:
The secret to luck is to always have your heart set on what you are about to get. In that way they can never be disappointed, and must always achieve your dreams and goals. Maybe that is why the saints' prayer is, "Not my will, but Thy will be done." With an attitude like that, you can't lose----ever! The secret to happiness? lol You be the judge. I suspect if you have even the slightest taste for a little bit of gold you will not embrace this secret path to happiness. Fact is, you may flee it with all your might. lol Maybe if you're
lucky you will return to find what you have always been looking for all your life and which was right under your nose all the time.