LVHCM vs. Ken Smith?

[zengrifter]

In LVHCM's (aka Stalker) recent rant, at LVAdvisor, over being banned at this venue, he suggests a contest between him and Ken based on 30 hands.

A few respondees noted that Stalker's strength, holecarding, has a big edge - 10% or more - and so were inclined to believe that Stalker would likely win such a contest.

However that made me think about the variance in such a short sampling, even with the whopping 10% advantage. And about what Ken's expertise is - tourney skill involves short sampling high variance negotiation.

So the question is, if each was to utilize his particular strong suit, over just 30 hands, who is the likely victor in such a challenge? zg

 

[Kasi]

In LVHCM's (aka Stalker) recent rant, at LVAdvisor, over being banned at this venue, he suggests a contest between him and Ken based on 30 hands.

A few respondees noted that Stalker's strength, holecarding, has a big edge - 10% or more - and so were inclined to believe that Stalker would likely win such a contest.

However that made me think about the variance in such a short sampling, even with the whopping 10% advantage. And about what Ken's expertise is - tourney skill involves short sampling high variance negotiation.

So the question is, if each was to utilize his particular strong suit, over just 30 hands, who is the likely victor in such a challenge? zg

For heaven's sake it sounds reminiscent of Cipher's offer to to have someone put up $10,000 and play , I forget, say a 1000 hands to prove his system is worth it. And then call them chicken when nobody did.

Let's face it, LVCHM, and I have no idea who he is but apparently alot of people here do, is kind of silly for proposing it as they would both be as good as they are now after the 30 hands.

I didn't even know he was banned here but it's OK with me. Maybe let him back sometime if he behaves himself lol.

 

[ScottH]

The contest would not solve anything. One 30 hand match doesn't mean much. I couldn't see Ken accepting such a challenge.

 

[zengrifter]

I didn't even know he was banned here but it's OK with me. Maybe let him back sometime if he behaves himself lol.

Never happen... behaves, that is. z:laugh:g

 

[zengrifter]

The contest would not solve anything. One 30 hand match doesn't mean much. I couldn't see Ken accepting such a challenge.

Thats not the point - the point is, which is strongest scientifically! zg

 

[QFIT]

IMHO, hole-carding (purposely peeking at the other person's card) is not Blackjack at all. Surely it's a "skill," as is pick-pocketing. If you happen to have a sloppy dealer; that's his fault. If you make your living peeking at cards; that's quite another thing. The concept of having a skilled counter or tournament player play against someone with extra information makes no sense no matter how many hands. They ain't playing the same game.

 

[RJT]

I'd agree with Norm to an extent on this one. I don't think that there is anything underhanded or in the slightest questionable about hole carding, but i don't think that stricktly speaking it's blackjack. Hole carding can be used with a number of different games and relys on having extra information - information that is avalible to anyone that chooses to train themselves to look for it and then puts themselves in very specific positions to obtain this information, but not open information like the count.
I assume that for this competition LVHCM would have to choose the venue and dealer? Otherwise i don't see how he expects to gain the edge. Of course i'm assuming here that he would intend to gain an edge through some from of hole carding technique and i could well be wrong on this.
And i have to agree, there is no statistical merit to such a small sample size.
I don't see why he's getting so pissed off at Ken anyway. This was pretty much long overdue. I understand that he wants to do the community a service with his 'straight talking', but all he offers with this is profanities and no explanation or justification. He was offered the chance to do more and walked away from it. He pretty much banned himself.

RJT.

 

[QFIT]

This idea that Stalker is trying to save us from ourselves is quite ludicrous. He simply wants to destroy all forums except for BJFO. He stalked the manager of bj21; took his photo and posted it repeatedly on BJ21 until they shut down the free pages. He stalked the moderator of advantageplayer.com; took his photo and posted it on Yahoo. He stalked the manager of cardcounter.com all the way to his University office. Now he's attacking the owner of this site on LVA. Coincidentally, he kept posting the owner of LVA's photo here and elsewhere. In his opening post on his own forum; he attacked all the other forum moderators. The fact that he is appointed a moderator on a forum is hilarious. Do they know what "moderate" means?

 

[The Truth]

IMHO, hole-carding (purposely peeking at the other person's card) is not Blackjack at all. Surely it's a "skill," as is pick-pocketing. If you happen to have a sloppy dealer; that's his fault. If you make your living peeking at cards; that's quite another thing. The concept of having a skilled counter or tournament player play against someone with extra information makes no sense no matter how many hands. They ain't playing the same game.

What a great concept. Instead of legally playing blackjack with edges as great as over 30%, people should stick to a comical 1% edge and buy worthless software. Now that's "real" blackjack.

 

[The Truth]

This idea that Stalker is trying to save us from ourselves is quite ludicrous. He simply wants to destroy all forums except for BJFO. He stalked the manager of bj21; took his photo and posted it repeatedly on BJ21 until they shut down the free pages. He stalked the moderator of advantageplayer.com; took his photo and posted it on Yahoo. He stalked the manager of cardcounter.com all the way to his University office. Now he's attacking the owner of this site on LVA. Coincidentally, he kept posting the owner of LVA's photo here and elsewhere. In his opening post on his own forum; he attacked all the other forum moderators. The fact that he is appointed a moderator on a forum is hilarious. Do they know what "moderate" means?

And you have proof of this I presume?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

What a great concept. Instead of legally playing blackjack with edges as great as over 30%, people should stick to a comical 1% edge and buy worthless software. Now that's "real" blackjack.

Do you think there are any experienced BJ players who don't take advantage of holecard opportunities when they get them? Most players do not always have access to games where they can use holecard or nextcard tactics, so we use all the other tactics.

Besides, it isn't of much value to discuss holecarding here because real holecarders do not openly discuss their techniques on public message boards!!! Nor do real team counters discuss their team activities on public message boards. But anybody can be anything they want on the internet, I guess.

 

[QFIT]

What a great concept. Instead of legally playing blackjack with edges as great as over 30%, people should stick to a comical 1% edge and buy worthless software. Now that's "real" blackjack.

Funny you should mention software. My worthless software supports holecarding practice, simulation and strategy generation. But the software you BJFO folk keep pushing supports none of these. Or any other expert methods. That's "The Truth."

 

[zengrifter]

What a great concept. Instead of legally playing blackjack with edges as great as over 30%, people should stick to a comical 1% edge and buy worthless software. Now that's "real" blackjack.

Heeeess baaaaaack! zg

 

[k_c]

The easy way

What a great concept. Instead of legally playing blackjack with edges as great as over 30%, people should stick to a comical 1% edge and buy worthless software. Now that's "real" blackjack.

I have a system for you that is guaranteed to yield a fantastic edge.
1. Move to a location with lots of casinos.
2. Go into partnership with a dealer who always knows his hole card as well as the top card and can signal you perfectly as to what they are.
3. Sit at first base. You will always know your first card and dealer's hole card. Anybody can do this with hardly any knowledge of the game.
4. Since your edge is vastly superior but you cannot afford to divulge how you do it, just simply trash anyone trying to do it the "hard way" to let them know you are better than they are.

k_c

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, one on one, a holecarder and a tourney player, over 30 hands (in.. a tournament?). The bulk of the decision is going to be determined by sheer luck. But over a short number of hands, I'd lean towards the tourney player.

But of course there would be clarifying questions:

1) Can the tourney player see the hole card too?
2) Is the holecarder simply flat-betting?
3) Does anyone care?

I can only answer the last question: No.

 

[21forme]

I, for one, don't care. LVHCM (and his alt ids) is a sociopath.

 

[zengrifter]

Well, one on one, a holecarder and a tourney player, over 30 hands (in.. a tournament?). The bulk of the decision is going to be determined by sheer luck. But over a short number of hands, I'd lean towards the tourney player.

OK, here's the set-up, the winner gets $10,000:
LVHCM can see the holecarder, Ken cannot.
LVHCM flat bets, Ken bets turney-strategy.
30-hands. Who has the advantage towards winning? zg

 

[QFIT]

OK, here's the set-up, the winner gets $10,000:
LVHCM can see the holecarder, Ken cannot.
LVHCM flat bets, Ken bets turney-strategy.
30-hands. Who has the advantage towards winning? zg

This is all silly. Play Seven Card Stud. Who has the advantage; the guy that sees your hole cards or you. The best Poker player in the World wouldn't be able to beat an average player that can see his hole cards. But what's your long term advantage in this case? In the games I used to play in NJ; peek at the hole cards and you would find your shoes embedded in concrete a bit off the coast of Red Bank. What kind of challenge is this? Hey; I can beat you at the track - but I get to bet after the race has started.

 

[Persnickety1]

OK, here's the set-up, the winner gets $10,000:
LVHCM can see the holecarder, Ken cannot.
LVHCM flat bets, Ken bets turney-strategy.
30-hands. Who has the advantage towards winning? zg

When I compare apples against oranges, I'll pick oranges all the time. Because I like citrus better.

 

[zengrifter]

This is all silly. Play Seven Card Stud. Who has the advantage; the guy that sees your hole cards or you. The best Poker player in the World wouldn't be able to beat an average player that can see his hole cards.

My point or question is whether tourney-style short-sampling betting is stronger than a 10% edge in 30 hands, a majority of the time. zg