Martingale Vs Card Counting

[bjcardcounter]

Can we show mathematically that some sort of Martingale fares better than their AP art they boast of? When it comes to Martingale they often use the the worst possible effect of losing series of hands to strike out the theory. But , in fact they also have the same chance of losing everything. They call it fluctuation. When they can lose sometimes and win many times, it is the same as Martingale.

And you know this BS B.S , it assumes you ALWAYS have 0.5% edge (in most cases), BUT it is NOT. As the big cards are dealt out - it changes. Not sure why would anyone want to follow BS and call themselves a BS player.

Why not we run a sim.

And one more, They can get barred and half shoed. We cannot get barred nor half shoed.

 

[shadroch]

The simple fact that casinos will bar or half shoe counters but not Martingalers should tell you all you need to know about which system performs better.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

There are literally dozens or hundreds of threads on this very forum explaining why this logic is incorrect, but I'll do my best to dispel the idea quickly and efficiently.

"Can we show mathematically that some sort of Martingale fares better than their AP art they boast of?" - No, but we can show mathematically that a Martingale has a long-term negative expectation, while advantage play has a long-term positive expectation. It doesn't get simpler than that.

"When they can lose sometimes and win many times, it is the same as Martingale." Wrong. You expect to win many times with Martingale, but you'll ultimately lose a sum equal to or greater than your accumulated wins. With card counting and other AP, you'll win often and lose occasionally, but your wins will eclipse your losses, not the other way around.

"And you know this BS B.S , it assumes you ALWAYS have 0.5% edge (in most cases), BUT it is NOT. As the big cards are dealt out - it changes. Not sure why would anyone want to follow BS and call themselves a BS player." Basic strategy doesn't give you an edge, it decreases the house edge to the lowest possible amount. You're still playing at a disadvantage.

Hope that helps!

 

[zengrifter]

Martingale - Why not we run a sim.

Now there's an idea :laugh:

Bottom line is that sims prove counting and disprove martingales. Cape'ce? zg

 

[21gunsalute]

Can we show mathematically that some sort of Martingale fares better than their AP art they boast of? When it comes to Martingale they often use the the worst possible effect of losing series of hands to strike out the theory. But , in fact they also have the same chance of losing everything. They call it fluctuation. When they can lose sometimes and win many times, it is the same as Martingale.

And you know this BS B.S , it assumes you ALWAYS have 0.5% edge (in most cases), BUT it is NOT. As the big cards are dealt out - it changes. Not sure why would anyone want to follow BS and call themselves a BS player.

Why not we run a sim.

And one more, They can get barred and half shoed. We cannot get barred nor half shoed.

I've lost 15 hands or more in a row 5 times in the last week. Enough said.

 

[zengrifter]

I've lost 15 hands or more in a row 5 times in the last week. Enough said.

Can you calculate the approximate odds of that occurance? zg

 

[Southpaw]

Wow, that is really quite impressive (although you might not see it that way).

May better cards come your way,

SP

I've lost 15 hands or more in a row 5 times in the last week. Enough said.

 

[21gunsalute]

Wow, that is really quite impressive (although you might not see it that way).

May better cards come your way,

SP

If we're only counting 10 hands in a row or so it's been much, much greater, and if we're only counting TC's of +3 or so...well I can't even remember the last time I won a hand during a high count. I can't say I'm too impressed.

 

[better lucky than good]

martingale

Using a full on MG is suicide! True.

But when you are winning, or even just chopping, you can really increase your chips by by using a LIMITED MG. It accentuates your wins, especially when you ramp up bets! In the short run, it can work wonders!

In those situations I may just go 3 tiers with the MG. A stop loss deal.

But if you are losing badly, never try it. Just quit.

 

[aslan]

I've lost 15 hands or more in a row 5 times in the last week. Enough said.

Sounds like you're "due" to win 15 hands or more in a row this week! Use a positive martingale! :grin::whip:

 

[aslan]

Using a full on MG is suicide! True.

But when you are winning, or even just chopping, you can really increase your chips by by using a LIMITED MG. It accentuates your wins, especially when you ramp up bets! In the short run, it can work wonders!

In those situations I may just go 3 tiers with the MG. A stop loss deal.

But if you are losing badly, never try it. Just quit.

How can you tell when you're winning in time to get the limited MG into play? I must be very unlucky. Every time I try this, I start to lose. :grin::whip:

 

[gamblingghost]

How can you tell when you're winning in time to get the limited MG into play? I must be very unlucky. Every time I try this, I start to lose. :grin::whip:

I can tell just by looking at his avatar that he has unique brain power. He can obviously 'know' when that hot streak is going to continue.

 

[better lucky than good]

martingale vs. card counting

The Avatar is just a joke! I'm not really a sour puss!

Read my other thread in "voodoo betting strategies". I call it TRENDING, or bet tracking. Its one way of finding out if you are into a winning streak. Not perfect, but what is?

The limited MG will prevent serious hits to your bankroll.
It works great if you are winning anything more than 40% win %! With bet ramp ups, it can really pile up the money in short order!

Just try it on a few hundred charts.

Pre arrange a deck into several different scenarios:

W,L,W, L, W, W, L, W, W, L, for example, a 60% win sequence.
Then arrange a 40% win-lose sequence of cards.
Then do a 50-50 sequence of chopping hands

Now chart it out, using your normal bet ramps, you would use during counting
with the count with you.

Oh, if you try this in a casino, go to a 6 deck shoe, dont try this with SD or double deck, because you need a longer progression of cards dealt.

You can expect to win a lot more, when the count is in your favor!
And you will never get bludgeoned, if you just go 3 tiers max on MG.

Lets just consider this experimental, and see how it works.

 

[iCountNTrack]

The Avatar is just a joke! I'm not really a sour puss!

Read my other thread in "voodoo betting strategies". I call it TRENDING, or bet tracking. Its one way of finding out if you are into a winning streak. Not perfect, but what is?

The limited MG will prevent serious hits to your bankroll.
It works great if you are winning anything more than 40% win %! With bet ramp ups, it can really pile up the money in short order!

Just try it on a few hundred charts.

Pre arrange a deck into several different scenarios:

W,L,W, L, W, W, L, W, W, L, for example, a 60% win sequence.
Then arrange a 40% win-lose sequence of cards.
Then do a 50-50 sequence of chopping hands

Now chart it out, using your normal bet ramps, you would use during counting
with the count with you.

Oh, if you try this in a casino, go to a 6 deck shoe, dont try this with SD or double deck, because you need a longer progression of cards dealt.

You can expect to win a lot more, when the count is in your favor!
And you will never get bludgeoned, if you just go 3 tiers max on MG.

Lets just consider this experimental, and see how it works.

 

[gamblingghost]

The Avatar is just a joke! I'm not really a sour puss!

Read my other thread in "voodoo betting strategies". I call it TRENDING, or bet tracking. Its one way of finding out if you are into a winning streak. Not perfect, but what is?

The limited MG will prevent serious hits to your bankroll.
It works great if you are winning anything more than 40% win %! With bet ramp ups, it can really pile up the money in short order!

Just try it on a few hundred charts.

Pre arrange a deck into several different scenarios:

W,L,W, L, W, W, L, W, W, L, for example, a 60% win sequence.
Then arrange a 40% win-lose sequence of cards.
Then do a 50-50 sequence of chopping hands

Now chart it out, using your normal bet ramps, you would use during counting
with the count with you.

Oh, if you try this in a casino, go to a 6 deck shoe, dont try this with SD or double deck, because you need a longer progression of cards dealt.

You can expect to win a lot more, when the count is in your favor!
And you will never get bludgeoned, if you just go 3 tiers max on MG.

Lets just consider this experimental, and see how it works.

Your avatar is a joke!? Darn, I have a cousin who was wanting to meet you!!

You see, my problem is that I can't get the casinos to "pre arrange the deck" for me.:flame:

How about try it with say, a hundred million tries. How do you think it would fair then?

 

[ycming]

IF you want try this ****, do it on Punto/Banco. It has a lower house edge, you'll lose less !

Ming

 

[21gunsalute]

The Avatar is just a joke! I'm not really a sour puss!

Read my other thread in "voodoo betting strategies". I call it TRENDING, or bet tracking. Its one way of finding out if you are into a winning streak. Not perfect, but what is?

The limited MG will prevent serious hits to your bankroll.
It works great if you are winning anything more than 40% win %! With bet ramp ups, it can really pile up the money in short order!

Just try it on a few hundred charts.

Pre arrange a deck into several different scenarios:

W,L,W, L, W, W, L, W, W, L, for example, a 60% win sequence.
Then arrange a 40% win-lose sequence of cards.
Then do a 50-50 sequence of chopping hands

Now chart it out, using your normal bet ramps, you would use during counting
with the count with you.

Oh, if you try this in a casino, go to a 6 deck shoe, dont try this with SD or double deck, because you need a longer progression of cards dealt.

You can expect to win a lot more, when the count is in your favor!
And you will never get bludgeoned, if you just go 3 tiers max on MG.

Lets just consider this experimental, and see how it works.

Why not just get drunk and throw out the big money when the spirits move you?

 

[better lucky than good]

Voodoo Betting systems

What I proposed is just for the short run. Every time you sit down to play it is a short run situation.

If you count cards and use the limited MG, and are into a positive expectation, how would you not make more money than if you did not use the modified MG. If you were to say that, then you would be disparaging card counting theory in its entirety! There is NO WAY you will lose $ using a mod MG, and the cards are going with you. Unless you get very unlucky.

Look, I got unwanted heat from all the casinos I played at for the last 6-7 years. It got to where the pit critter would walk right up to me and whisper to me about how they were watching me, and knew I was an AP.

So I had to change my whole MO. Hence, the trending bet tracking method, which worked the one time I tried it. I no longer sit at SD tables, because those are where the CC's sit, and the casino knows this!

I am 65 now, and my eyesight is failing, and its too hard to count cards anymore without making mistakes. I was never a heavy player like so many of you folks, and I liked to have fun at it. But after 11 years, I ca honestly tell you I am somewhat ahead, even in spite of dirty tricks used by the casinos to thwart my efforts.

I am not a big advocate of mod MG, but there is a time to try it, and thats all I am saying. Lets face it, CC is gruelling work, and its so much harder to win at it then say it was in 1971, when I cleaned up one night at Harvey's. before the casinos tightened up the game. That year, I lost everything I owned, and was a compulsive gambler. I quit for about 30 years, then started up again, and had no more compulsion. Its a real hard lesson to learn.

 

[aslan]

What I proposed is just for the short run. Every time you sit down to play it is a short run situation.

If you count cards and use the limited MG, and are into a positive expectation, how would you not make more money than if you did not use the modified MG. If you were to say that, then you would be disparaging card counting theory in its entirety! There is NO WAY you will lose $ using a mod MG, and the cards are going with you. Unless you get very unlucky.

Look, I got unwanted heat from all the casinos I played at for the last 6-7 years. It got to where the pit critter would walk right up to me and whisper to me about how they were watching me, and knew I was an AP.

So I had to change my whole MO. Hence, the trending bet tracking method, which worked the one time I tried it. I no longer sit at SD tables, because those are where the CC's sit, and the casino knows this!

I am 65 now, and my eyesight is failing, and its too hard to count cards anymore without making mistakes. I was never a heavy player like so many of you folks, and I liked to have fun at it. But after 11 years, I ca honestly tell you I am somewhat ahead, even in spite of dirty tricks used by the casinos to thwart my efforts.

I am not a big advocate of mod MG, but there is a time to try it, and thats all I am saying. Lets face it, CC is gruelling work, and its so much harder to win at it then say it was in 1971, when I cleaned up one night at Harvey's. before the casinos tightened up the game. That year, I lost everything I owned, and was a compulsive gambler. I quit for about 30 years, then started up again, and had no more compulsion. Its a real hard lesson to learn.

Are you saying that a positive MG during a plus count will make more money than just betting according to the count? It may make more money at times, but it also will jack up your RoR to an unacceptable level IMHO. I bet exactly at the levels I have computed will minimize my RoR. Why would I want place myself in greater danger by employing a MG and exceeding the ideal wager correlated to my bankroll?

 

[pit15]

The martingale is about as good as the OP's English.