I am going to leave the name of the person I am speaking of/to out of this because I don't want to embarrass or pick on him and also hope this may serve to benefit other aspiring counters in the future.
Member x, a former member of Norm's site, arrived in vegas about 6 months ago to pursue card counting as a means to support himself. Some of you may have followed his story at wizard's site over the last 6 months.
Now member x was an ideal candidate, in my opinion because he was/is young, single with no dependents and few financial responsibilities, and he had a $50k + bankroll (or so he claims). One of the biggest mistakes of want-to-be counters is they don't have the BR necessary for a reasonable chance (I certainly didn't). So on the surface, member x, was in better shape than most.
For those that have not been following along at Wov, member x immediately went into the hole in vegas, dropping somewhere in the neighborhood of 10k. He declared this city unwinnable, and cheaters and spouted all kinds of frustration and I guess took a little time off. Then he began playing a bit and slowly clawed his way back to even. And in recent days, he has returned to the red (in the hole) to the tune of abut 5k and announced he is giving up.
Now the purpose of this thread is NOT to talk him out of that decision. Based on his posts and reactions to the swings involved, I have sort of reached the same conclusion that others have that it appears he is not cut out for blackjack card counting play and the normal swings that go along with it.
But there is one glowing issue that stands out to me that I want to address. I said earlier that member x was better prepared than most aspirin card counters because he had a 50k bankroll. I think that is a reasonable amount of BR to really give yourself a chance to succeed at what he was trying to do.
However in this case, he didn't have a 50k bankroll. He may have had 50k to his name, but his reaction based dropping 10k and later 5k (after a rebound), makes it clear he was never willing to risk 50k. He wasn't really willing to risk 25k. He was willing to risk 5-10k. Therefore he really had a 10k bankroll at best. But yet he was playing stakes based on a 50k bankroll, which equates to severe overbetting and almost certain failure. If he was only willing to risk 10k or 20k, he should have based his bets on that amount.
His negative swings of 5k and 10k, are not that unusual IF he really was playing to a 50k bankroll. But he wasn't.
So the moral of the story is you have to be honest about what your bankroll REALLY is. You CANNOT base you wagers on a 50k bankroll is you are really only willing to risk 5-10k. To do so, you are severely overbetting, and normal, routine swings will place you beyond your REAL tolerance level and you give yourself no real chance of anything but failure.
Member x, a former member of Norm's site, arrived in vegas about 6 months ago to pursue card counting as a means to support himself. Some of you may have followed his story at wizard's site over the last 6 months.
Now member x was an ideal candidate, in my opinion because he was/is young, single with no dependents and few financial responsibilities, and he had a $50k + bankroll (or so he claims). One of the biggest mistakes of want-to-be counters is they don't have the BR necessary for a reasonable chance (I certainly didn't). So on the surface, member x, was in better shape than most.
For those that have not been following along at Wov, member x immediately went into the hole in vegas, dropping somewhere in the neighborhood of 10k. He declared this city unwinnable, and cheaters and spouted all kinds of frustration and I guess took a little time off. Then he began playing a bit and slowly clawed his way back to even. And in recent days, he has returned to the red (in the hole) to the tune of abut 5k and announced he is giving up.
Now the purpose of this thread is NOT to talk him out of that decision. Based on his posts and reactions to the swings involved, I have sort of reached the same conclusion that others have that it appears he is not cut out for blackjack card counting play and the normal swings that go along with it.
But there is one glowing issue that stands out to me that I want to address. I said earlier that member x was better prepared than most aspirin card counters because he had a 50k bankroll. I think that is a reasonable amount of BR to really give yourself a chance to succeed at what he was trying to do.
However in this case, he didn't have a 50k bankroll. He may have had 50k to his name, but his reaction based dropping 10k and later 5k (after a rebound), makes it clear he was never willing to risk 50k. He wasn't really willing to risk 25k. He was willing to risk 5-10k. Therefore he really had a 10k bankroll at best. But yet he was playing stakes based on a 50k bankroll, which equates to severe overbetting and almost certain failure. If he was only willing to risk 10k or 20k, he should have based his bets on that amount.
His negative swings of 5k and 10k, are not that unusual IF he really was playing to a 50k bankroll. But he wasn't.
So the moral of the story is you have to be honest about what your bankroll REALLY is. You CANNOT base you wagers on a 50k bankroll is you are really only willing to risk 5-10k. To do so, you are severely overbetting, and normal, routine swings will place you beyond your REAL tolerance level and you give yourself no real chance of anything but failure.
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