mjbballar23
Well-Known Member
Hey everyone
Getting some inspiration from Matt21's sticky thread, I decided to tell people a little about my card counting adventures and give my thoughts and warnings on card counting
Although im only 21, i've been counting since the day i turned 18. As i look back on these last three years, here are my strongest recommendations to anyone looking to get into counting:
Play with a large bankroll. Honestly, I wouldnt bother with card counting unless you have AT LEAST $15,000 to put toward this venture. If you dont have $15,000 and you are serious about becoming a strong player, get a job to build your bankroll. Dont think you are going to easily be able to turn a couple hundred dollars into a $15,000 bankroll with ease just by playing a straight counting game. I advocate a $15,000 bankroll minimum because when you consider the travel, time, food, and lodging expenses involved with playing this game, you really need to be pulling in $50/hour or more to make the trips worth your while. $50/hour is often times hard to achieve with less than $15,000 while also maintaining a reasonable risk of ruin.
Play only great games.I've played some GREAT counting games in the last three years! And I mean some of the best games you'll ever find. Simulations on these games gave me a NO (number of hands to overcome 1 standard deviation) of around 6000 hands. That means that even the BEST counting games require 24,000 hands to overcome 95% of the variance. When you consider you get around 80 hands per hour, THATS 300 HOURS!!!! (Keep in mind that these are some of the BEST games, most games will have a 2 standard deviation NO well above 24,000). So before you decide to jump into card counting by yourself, consider the reality that you might not get anywhere near your Expected Value (EV) for months or even years. Some of the games that I see you guys posting about would take almost an entire lifetime to overcome the variance! Some argue that card counting isnt really gambling; however, when you play garbage games i feel there is an argument that card counting is nothing but gambling. If the best games you can find in your area are 6d H17, DAS, 70% penetration, you should consider picking up another hobby.
Play as a team. I cant really stress this enough. The feeling of losing money for months on end is such a depressing feeling, one that id rather not deal with. I feel the optimal team is between 2 - 4 players. More than 4 can become difficult to manage. Playing as a team will obviously help greatly with leveling out variance and at the same time will make the mental and psychological aspects of the game easier to handle. I have found that I play much better when i know i have other teammates helping to flatten out the variance. I dont stress the big swings nearly as much. For example, lets return to my strong game with a 2 standard deviation NO of 24,000 hands. Playing by yourself, this will take 300 hours. However, playing with 3 other people willonly require 75 hours of work from each player. This is MUCH more reasonable and can be easily achieved in a few of weeks. Keep in mind though that this is for an EXTREMELY good game and most games you will find would take much longer than this to overcome the variance! That is why I am such a huge advocate of only playing very good games. Now playing as a team can make things more complicated. Trusting you partners is obviously the biggest concern; however, if you can get past this i feel your BJ experience will be much more enjoyable.
Always be striving for the biggest edge. This kind of goes along with playing great games. Once you begin to feel confident in your counting abilities, I really feel that you should be focusing on finding opportunities to gain a larger edge. Some things that immediately come to mind are shuffle tracking, promotions, holecarding, side bets, other games, etc. These are things that can make a game go from bad or mediocre to good or even excellent. Knowledge of how to exploit these opportunities i feel are extremely important for any serious player. These are the "good games" im talking about. These are the games that give you the greatest edge with the lowest variance. These are the only games I will play. Of course, I will also always play these games with at least one partner to ensure I reach the long-run as quickly as possible.DONT BE AFRAID TO TRAVEL TO GOOD GAMES AND DONT BE AFRAID TO PLAY THEM AGGRESSIVELY.
Hope this puts a few things in perspective for some of the newer players on here.
PS. I typed this up rather quickly so grammer might be lacking.....sorry
Getting some inspiration from Matt21's sticky thread, I decided to tell people a little about my card counting adventures and give my thoughts and warnings on card counting
Although im only 21, i've been counting since the day i turned 18. As i look back on these last three years, here are my strongest recommendations to anyone looking to get into counting:
Play with a large bankroll. Honestly, I wouldnt bother with card counting unless you have AT LEAST $15,000 to put toward this venture. If you dont have $15,000 and you are serious about becoming a strong player, get a job to build your bankroll. Dont think you are going to easily be able to turn a couple hundred dollars into a $15,000 bankroll with ease just by playing a straight counting game. I advocate a $15,000 bankroll minimum because when you consider the travel, time, food, and lodging expenses involved with playing this game, you really need to be pulling in $50/hour or more to make the trips worth your while. $50/hour is often times hard to achieve with less than $15,000 while also maintaining a reasonable risk of ruin.
Play only great games.I've played some GREAT counting games in the last three years! And I mean some of the best games you'll ever find. Simulations on these games gave me a NO (number of hands to overcome 1 standard deviation) of around 6000 hands. That means that even the BEST counting games require 24,000 hands to overcome 95% of the variance. When you consider you get around 80 hands per hour, THATS 300 HOURS!!!! (Keep in mind that these are some of the BEST games, most games will have a 2 standard deviation NO well above 24,000). So before you decide to jump into card counting by yourself, consider the reality that you might not get anywhere near your Expected Value (EV) for months or even years. Some of the games that I see you guys posting about would take almost an entire lifetime to overcome the variance! Some argue that card counting isnt really gambling; however, when you play garbage games i feel there is an argument that card counting is nothing but gambling. If the best games you can find in your area are 6d H17, DAS, 70% penetration, you should consider picking up another hobby.
Play as a team. I cant really stress this enough. The feeling of losing money for months on end is such a depressing feeling, one that id rather not deal with. I feel the optimal team is between 2 - 4 players. More than 4 can become difficult to manage. Playing as a team will obviously help greatly with leveling out variance and at the same time will make the mental and psychological aspects of the game easier to handle. I have found that I play much better when i know i have other teammates helping to flatten out the variance. I dont stress the big swings nearly as much. For example, lets return to my strong game with a 2 standard deviation NO of 24,000 hands. Playing by yourself, this will take 300 hours. However, playing with 3 other people willonly require 75 hours of work from each player. This is MUCH more reasonable and can be easily achieved in a few of weeks. Keep in mind though that this is for an EXTREMELY good game and most games you will find would take much longer than this to overcome the variance! That is why I am such a huge advocate of only playing very good games. Now playing as a team can make things more complicated. Trusting you partners is obviously the biggest concern; however, if you can get past this i feel your BJ experience will be much more enjoyable.
Always be striving for the biggest edge. This kind of goes along with playing great games. Once you begin to feel confident in your counting abilities, I really feel that you should be focusing on finding opportunities to gain a larger edge. Some things that immediately come to mind are shuffle tracking, promotions, holecarding, side bets, other games, etc. These are things that can make a game go from bad or mediocre to good or even excellent. Knowledge of how to exploit these opportunities i feel are extremely important for any serious player. These are the "good games" im talking about. These are the games that give you the greatest edge with the lowest variance. These are the only games I will play. Of course, I will also always play these games with at least one partner to ensure I reach the long-run as quickly as possible.DONT BE AFRAID TO TRAVEL TO GOOD GAMES AND DONT BE AFRAID TO PLAY THEM AGGRESSIVELY.
Hope this puts a few things in perspective for some of the newer players on here.
PS. I typed this up rather quickly so grammer might be lacking.....sorry
