Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Curious what others think of the APs opinion based on his research and observations...?
... more manipulated card order via Shuffle Master used in Seminole Casinos Video
- Thread starter Nightshifter
- Start date
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Well he is right that the problem with Indian casinos is zero oversight. And any kind of legal action, means going through a tribal court. 
Kind of like those old Burt Reynolds movie where he played Gator McCluskey, where the crooked sheriff and the Judge overseeing him are related?
So anyway, I find this guy somewhat credible although, a little "goofy". When he says things like AP's just know something isn't right...I have been there. Like I said during other discussions, when you play 80-100 thousand rounds a year, you know when something doesn't feel right. THAT is what experience is.
So I was sort of waiting for any kind of mention of ASM shuffle machine and there was none. It does look like the things this guy was specifically talked about were years ago, predating the ASM discussions of recent years. But two things specifically relate to that discussion. Most of the video he talked about shoes with very high counts where the high cards never came out (presumably behind the cut card). But towards the end he also talked about shoes where high cards came out right at the beginning. He called these walk-away shoes, which is exactly what a player should do. lol
But these two scenarios are also the result of clumping. A high card clump which can and does occur naturally, will result in both the scenarios. If the high card clump is cut after the cut card you will see a high count, where the high value cards never come out. BUT if the high card clump is cut into play, especially near the beginning, you will have all those 10 cards come out early (resulting in a lot of pushes) and then the remainder of the shoe strongly favors the house. Both scenarios strongly favor the house. So if you see these two things which do occur naturally, occurring at a rate that seems unnatural to you....Beware.
So like I said, this clumping can and does occur naturally. But I believe certain models of ASM have the ability, maybe slightly modified, to achieve this clumping, more than naturally. I recently saw mention that their is a ASM model that is only sold to Indian casinos, and jurisdictions outside the United States to avoid dealing with some of the legitimate casino commissions. Now I know, people will call me names and stuff, but the key is something I say earlier and people like Stealth said on another forum. And experienced player can just tell when something isn't right. Trust that.
Kind of like those old Burt Reynolds movie where he played Gator McCluskey, where the crooked sheriff and the Judge overseeing him are related? So anyway, I find this guy somewhat credible although, a little "goofy". When he says things like AP's just know something isn't right...I have been there. Like I said during other discussions, when you play 80-100 thousand rounds a year, you know when something doesn't feel right. THAT is what experience is.
So I was sort of waiting for any kind of mention of ASM shuffle machine and there was none. It does look like the things this guy was specifically talked about were years ago, predating the ASM discussions of recent years. But two things specifically relate to that discussion. Most of the video he talked about shoes with very high counts where the high cards never came out (presumably behind the cut card)
. But towards the end he also talked about shoes where high cards came out right at the beginning. He called these walk-away shoes, which is exactly what a player should do. lolBut these two scenarios are also the result of clumping. A high card clump which can and does occur naturally, will result in both the scenarios. If the high card clump is cut after the cut card you will see a high count, where the high value cards never come out. BUT if the high card clump is cut into play, especially near the beginning, you will have all those 10 cards come out early (resulting in a lot of pushes) and then the remainder of the shoe strongly favors the house. Both scenarios strongly favor the house. So if you see these two things which do occur naturally, occurring at a rate that seems unnatural to you....Beware.
So like I said, this clumping can and does occur naturally. But I believe certain models of ASM have the ability, maybe slightly modified, to achieve this clumping, more than naturally. I recently saw mention that their is a ASM model that is only sold to Indian casinos, and jurisdictions outside the United States to avoid dealing with some of the legitimate casino commissions. Now I know, people will call me names and stuff, but the key is something I say earlier and people like Stealth said on another forum. And experienced player can just tell when something isn't right. Trust that.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Another question I had been meaning to pose and this seems as good a place as any, because it is slightly related.
During my several times annually Pa trips, one of my favorite casinos has always been Sands Pa. And I have always done well there. So about a year ago, Sands was sold to an Alabama Indian Tribe. I have lost on my last 3 visits. VERY, very small sample size. Absolutely no significance to such a sample size. And I have to say, I haven't even felt anything unusual....you know that experienced player gut feeling thing.
So female friend that I visit with in Pa and is a weekly patron (no-AP) slot player at Sands, has been complaining endlessly to me about how things have changed in the last year and she NEVER wins anymore. You know that old rant.
Now I am not suggesting anything has changed, or that this Alabama Indian Tribe is cheating. But it does raise a question I have been wondering about.
Indian Casino on Indian land, like Foxwoods and many others in the midwest and southwest and other areas. They police themselves both as far as oversight and very often in every aspect of policing, complete with their own law enforcement. Anyone who has any kind of issue....Losing proposistion. That is why I avoid Indian Casinos.
So on to this question. In this specific case, a tribe from Alabama, buying a casino in Bethlehem Pa, that is not on Indian land. Are they subject to the rules and regulations of Pa gaming, or are they exempt from that and police themselves like most Indian casinos?
During my several times annually Pa trips, one of my favorite casinos has always been Sands Pa. And I have always done well there. So about a year ago, Sands was sold to an Alabama Indian Tribe. I have lost on my last 3 visits. VERY, very small sample size. Absolutely no significance to such a sample size. And I have to say, I haven't even felt anything unusual....you know that experienced player gut feeling thing.
So female friend that I visit with in Pa and is a weekly patron (no-AP) slot player at Sands, has been complaining endlessly to me about how things have changed in the last year and she NEVER wins anymore. You know that old rant.
Now I am not suggesting anything has changed, or that this Alabama Indian Tribe is cheating. But it does raise a question I have been wondering about.
Indian Casino on Indian land, like Foxwoods and many others in the midwest and southwest and other areas. They police themselves both as far as oversight and very often in every aspect of policing, complete with their own law enforcement. Anyone who has any kind of issue....Losing proposistion. That is why I avoid Indian Casinos.
So on to this question. In this specific case, a tribe from Alabama, buying a casino in Bethlehem Pa, that is not on Indian land. Are they subject to the rules and regulations of Pa gaming, or are they exempt from that and police themselves like most Indian casinos?
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
It is a question I will ask Bob, when I next see him. I guess my fear is that the small piece of land is somehow now considered Indian territory, like a small like reservation in the middle of Bethlehem Pa.BoSox said:
And while that seems bizarre, I believe that is exactly how it works here in Nevada. There is a Paiute Tribe has several "smoke stores" in North Las Vegas. And that little area is treated like an Indian reservation, meaning they don't have to pay taxes on their sales.
Awhile back on Norm's site in the disadvantage forum, I started a thread on the possibilities and probabilities of ASM being altered to cheat. A few days ago a new poster mentioned that manufacturers of these machines claim in their manuals that their ASM's are far more capable of giving a totally true random mixing of the cards than any human is capable of doing. That statement set me off with a few posts of my own. According to the poster, the mixing low and high cards in some form of a sequence together would be considered perfectly legal. I am saying that unless the manufacturers do not know the outcome of the final mixture of cards before they are ready to use, it cannot be truly random which I believe all states gaming laws require. It really boils down to how did the manufactures of the machines decide how to mix the cards, random or patterns? That is not even mentioning the possibilities of tampering. I believe that I have played more than enough BJ in my lifetime and on ASM to know when something is not right and I am not afraid to say it on a forum.KewlJ said:
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KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Besides Norms inexplicable handling of the T3 situation, knowing the claims were mathematically impossible, the next biggest baffling thing about Norm is his insistence that their is absolutely no cheating going on and every mention of cheating instantly moved to the disadvantage section.BoSox said:
For a long time I too shared the believe that cheating at the casino (or casino industry) level was all but a thing of the past. Common logic said why would casinos cheat. They already have the advantage and in these corporate times cheating would have a high cost. Unfortunately there is one thing that trumps this common logic and it is the human trait of greed.
As time goes on and more and more cases and information comes to light, for anyone to continue to just blindly sweep this possibility away in the growing face of mounting evidence is just irresponsibility. So like I said, I am baffled by Norm, who I consider an intelligent man, despite our differences, inflexibility to acknowledge growing concerns.
JohnCrover
Banned
If Indians have soveirgn immunity then why do they have to offer "Card craps" and "card roulette" in order to circumvent Federal Law? If they were truly soveirgn they could just offer the standard craps games and card roulette games.
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
What video? It is deleted as far as I can see ?Raven said:
Yes I delete all videos on channel. I can answer any question people that watch it have. It's old post but I just find and thought it would be cool to revisit. As time passes more information becomes available etc. Thanks for not beating me up too bad. Except @KewlJ who never respond to my email.Counting_Is_Fun said:
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Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Like I had mentioned in other threads, not only can the ASM model in question clump cards, but it can group certain cards together that statistically create poor 2 card totals and subsequent hitting percentage wise. A,2,3,4 & 9s is one that I've seen plenty of times at Barona. Now knowing that the ASM is a shelve shuffling type of device, the cards tend to linger around. Sure enough, I received 2 Aces... but didn't split and hit getting another Ace and 2 fours. Everyone at the table grumbled at me, but I was the only one standing after the dealers 9 with Ace under. Now if these particular cards are slugged, you can bet the 6,7 & 8s are grouped as well. Even in single deck, with a very poor wash, the cards will be severely clumped. Now even if the ASM is just shuffling, it's the manner in which how it's shuffling that will prolong this clumping which is detrimental to the player strategy... I can mimic the same shuffling by hand by thirds in my shuffling. This would keep some insanely long groups of low cards or high cards which will destroy the player. Now seeing this happen in single deck in which 14 low cards come out ... then all the 10s with a 9 here and there over and over is not considered within the statistical mean of natural clumping... We've done this for many many years, and it's only now that it's coming to light even though some elite players knew of it happening manually decades ago. It subverts counting strategy by getting the AP to make large pets in a false situation... it's a legal defense (since all the cards are there) that the powers to be use against card counting... spread all you want... you'll get no heat and you'll be losing much more than normal variance dictates It's so simple... it's KISS. The best way to overcome it is knowing what to look for, and depart from that table/casino quickly unless you know how to exploit it, which isn't an easy task... if 7,8 & 9s are clumped with some 10s.. it's going to create more poor hands than good because the player will play one way and the house another... not to mention the player makes the first move and there's usually more player hands than dealers ... better chance of poor combinations and busting since the dealer will have a 7,8,9 or possible 10 up... 7,7 vs 7,8,9 or 10 ... 8,8 7,8 vs. 7,9 vs 9,9 vs. even if the dealer has 8,8 .. some players will bust out before the dealer ... SG gaming has invested much into the science of grouping certain cards together that will benefit the house more over the long run, since the house plays one way and the player another... it's not just clumping 10s together anymore
It's so simple... it's KISS. The best way to overcome it is knowing what to look for, and depart from that table/casino quickly unless you know how to exploit it, which isn't an easy task... if 7,8 & 9s are clumped with some 10s.. it's going to create more poor hands than good because the player will play one way and the house another... not to mention the player makes the first move and there's usually more player hands than dealers ... better chance of poor combinations and busting since the dealer will have a 7,8,9 or possible 10 up... 7,7 vs 7,8,9 or 10 ... 8,8 7,8 vs. 7,9 vs 9,9 vs. even if the dealer has 8,8 .. some players will bust out before the dealer ... SG gaming has invested much into the science of grouping certain cards together that will benefit the house more over the long run, since the house plays one way and the player another... it's not just clumping 10s together anymore
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Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
This post is insane...I hope no newbies are even reading this. We should really try to make this site about BJ.Nightshifter said:Like I had mentioned in other threads, not only can the ASM model in question clump cards, but it can group certain cards together that statistically create poor 2 card totals and subsequent hitting percentage wise. A,2,3,4 & 9s is one that I've seen plenty of times at Barona. Now knowing that the ASM is a shelve shuffling type of device, the cards tend to linger around. Sure enough, I received 2 Aces... but didn't split and hit getting another Ace and 2 fours. Everyone at the table grumbled at me, but I was the only one standing after the dealers 9 with Ace under. Now if these particular cards are slugged, you can bet the 6,7 & 8s are grouped as well. Even in single deck, with a very poor wash, the cards will be severely clumped. Now even if the ASM is just shuffling, it's the manner in which how it's shuffling that will prolong this clumping which is detrimental to the player strategy... I can mimic the same shuffling by hand by thirds in my shuffling. This would keep some insanely long groups of low cards or high cards which will destroy the player. Now seeing this happen in single deck in which 14 low cards come out ... then all the 10s with a 9 here and there over and over is not considered within the statistical mean of natural clumping... We've done this for many many years, and it's only now that it's coming to light even though some elite players knew of it happening manually decades ago. It subverts counting strategy by getting the AP to make large pets in a false situation... it's a legal defense (since all the cards are there) that the powers to be use against card counting... spread all you want... you'll get no heat and you'll be losing much more than normal variance dictates
The ASM has nothing to do with the empirical observations we (there are 7 of us, 1 is a retired pro) have at this particular casino. The Hard Rock right next door runs 8D with the same ASMs on the table and none of what I'm telling you happens there veryoften, if at all. And when you get a solid true +10 count you can rest assured there's no funny math going on. I have seen hand shuffle games go completely sideways too. The reasons you are seeing unplayable shoes on these tables is not because of some cheating machine rigging the cards. It's the constantly crowded tables with already shitty penetration, making that penetration worse. Turning your AP skillset into nothing more than a random guess. If I go early in the morning, when the tables are empty I can get some heads up play on a $5 6D game with a deck cut off, and absolutely murder them. Same ASM, shit same cards even. If you are stuck on low minimum tables with a bunch of tweakers with government checks and nowhere to be, your gonna have bad conditions. 6 people on every table is like moving the cut card forward. The shuffling method is completely irrelevant here.Nightshifter said:Like I had mentioned in other threads, not only can the ASM model in question clump cards, but it can group certain cards together that statistically create poor 2 card totals and subsequent hitting percentage wise. A,2,3,4 & 9s is one that I've seen plenty of times at Barona. Now knowing that the ASM is a shelve shuffling type of device, the cards tend to linger around. Sure enough, I received 2 Aces... but didn't split and hit getting another Ace and 2 fours. Everyone at the table grumbled at me, but I was the only one standing after the dealers 9 with Ace under. Now if these particular cards are slugged, you can bet the 6,7 & 8s are grouped as well. Even in single deck, with a very poor wash, the cards will be severely clumped. Now even if the ASM is just shuffling, it's the manner in which how it's shuffling that will prolong this clumping which is detrimental to the player strategy... I can mimic the same shuffling by hand by thirds in my shuffling. This would keep some insanely long groups of low cards or high cards which will destroy the player. Now seeing this happen in single deck in which 14 low cards come out ... then all the 10s with a 9 here and there over and over is not considered within the statistical mean of natural clumping... We've done this for many many years, and it's only now that it's coming to light even though some elite players knew of it happening manually decades ago. It subverts counting strategy by getting the AP to make large pets in a false situation... it's a legal defense (since all the cards are there) that the powers to be use against card counting... spread all you want... you'll get no heat and you'll be losing much more than normal variance dictates
Now as for the true +15 counts that never see the light of day, I have no idea. I've watched them change the cards in the morning, and they are in a sealed box by a company called Gempak. They open the cards and although they will not turn them face up for anyone, I can't see where they would be "adding extra 4's" as one AP put it. It's just not happening on the floor that's for sure. The extra 4's come from the fact that when they were caught cheating in the late 90's, the extra 4's could help turn those A/6 hands into 21's in a H17 game. As far as why the true count goes so high, and the remaining 10's/Aces end up behind the cut card so often, is anybody's guess... just like you're guessing whether you're betting into a bogus true count again.. and again.. and again.
Is there any evidence that exists, mathematical analysis or computer simulation, that would show that a casino would have a greater advantage for any given sequence of cards under normal casino conditions with variable numbers of players and cut card placements? I am wondering that even if an ASM can order cards to any specific sequence, what proof exists that indicates this would give them a greater advantage against card counters or average players?
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
Of course there are sequences that would be beneficial to the house. Wouldn't be hard to figure out with simulations.
And these occur naturally. But what If you could arrange for them more often? Do you think some casinos would? Especially until they were specifically told they couldn't?
An easy example is a clump of 10 value cards without aces. Doesn't matter how they were cut, result will be a majority of cards played depleted of 10 value cards (advantage house) and at some point a couple rounds of 20 vs 20 pushes.
And these occur naturally. But what If you could arrange for them more often? Do you think some casinos would? Especially until they were specifically told they couldn't?
An easy example is a clump of 10 value cards without aces. Doesn't matter how they were cut, result will be a majority of cards played depleted of 10 value cards (advantage house) and at some point a couple rounds of 20 vs 20 pushes.