Murphy's Law. Increase spread = negative variance.

[junior_counter]

Recently adjusted spread from a too conservative 1-5, to 1-12. Did this for one very short outing w/ moderate success and was getting comfortable laying out the new spread w/ out much chip stacking thought/hesitation, hitting the max at TC +4.

Second session, was at a place with table mins out of my range. Decided to wong and jump in at +2. Prepared to wait it out until the count was met, knowing it may take some time. If the count dipped below that mark, I'd have to wong out. Pondered the thought and was concerned I may lose concentration messing up count when faking a call, or whatever, to quickly wong out and wong back in when good. Normally at my usual table mins, I'd wong out in negative counts only and that was it for the shoe. Got a place holder for a bathroom break, or went on to another table. With the higher table mins, there would be too much time wasted wonging out and hoping to find another table w/ a +2 count.

First shoe(8 deck) I scope out immediately hits the mark about 2 decks in. Nice! I jump in, count continued to soar and am feeling good. Relieved there will probably be no need to wong out w/ the phone call act. Count fluctuated +2 to +5 throughout shoe.

Got hammered. Lost 70 units within 15 minutes. Biggest and fastest lost in one session ever. Negative variance is all part of the game, go figure it happens just as the new higher spread comes into play.

 

[Lowrider]

That's nothing ... I one lost 180 units in a few hours ... 70 unit loss is moderate variance ... very normal happenings there ... Sucks but that's the life of a counter

 

[tallmanvegas]

Recently adjusted spread from a too conservative 1-5, to 1-12. Did this for one very short outing w/ moderate success and was getting comfortable laying out the new spread w/ out much chip stacking thought/hesitation, hitting the max at TC +4.

Second session, was at a place with table mins out of my range. Decided to wong and jump in at +2. Prepared to wait it out until the count was met, knowing it may take some time. If the count dipped below that mark, I'd have to wong out. Pondered the thought and was concerned I may lose concentration messing up count when faking a call, or whatever, to quickly wong out and wong back in when good. Normally at my usual table mins, I'd wong out in negative counts only and that was it for the shoe. Got a place holder for a bathroom break, or went on to another table. With the higher table mins, there would be too much time wasted wonging out and hoping to find another table w/ a +2 count.

First shoe(8 deck) I scope out immediately hits the mark about 2 decks in. Nice! I jump in, count continued to soar and am feeling good. Relieved there will probably be no need to wong out w/ the phone call act. Count fluctuated +2 to +5 throughout shoe.

Got hammered. Lost 70 units within 15 minutes. Biggest and fastest lost in one session ever. Negative variance is all part of the game, go figure it happens just as the new higher spread comes into play.

Pretty classic story, sometimes it not all that to be a counter, but counting will help ya

 

[kewljason]

Yes raising your spread like that will result in higher earnings, but unforetunately the price you pay will be larger swings both ways to get there. It is important that you be prepared for that both financially (BR) and mentally. Try to always focus on the longterm and not these short term down turns. Easier said than done, I know, but if you measure you short term results by EV instead of actual win/loss, it helps a great deal and eventually the actual win/loss will come in line with the EV. EVENTUALLY!

I made a change in my game this year which also resulted in larger swings. I didn't change or increase my spread as much as seeking out games with better penetration which means more high counts. But the end result is pretty much the same, higher longterm EV, but bigger swings to get there. I have encounted 10 swings of 400 or more units in a single day over the first half of the year, which is about double, what I had encountered over 7 years prior to that. So that took some getting used to. As I said, staying focused on longterm results rather than short and measuring your session, daily or trip results in EV instead of actual results really helps me.

 

[zengrifter]

Recently adjusted spread from a too conservative 1-5, to 1-12. (

You are confused: spread is calc'd from the max bet down, not the min bet up.
If your BR allows you to bet 120 max at 2D, looks like this >>

1-6 = $20-$120
1-12 = $10-$120

Top bet stays the same. Cap'ece, noobee? zg

 

[Sharky]

you are confused: Spread is calc'd from the max bet down, not the min bet up.
If your br allows you to bet 120 max at 2d, looks like this >>

1-6 = $20-$120
1-12 = $10-$120

top bet stays the same. Cap'ece, noobee? Zg

x9999999....but, consider rules of course...==>> BR ======>>> "takes $$$$$$$$$$ to make $"

 

[blackjack avenger]

horror of resizing

Resizing bank is treacherous, even infrequently.
Your long run goes up 9 times
For a Kelly bettor to pass a fixed bettor takes about 40,000 hrs. due to resizing.
However, a fixed bettor has a definite ror.
What to do?
Bet 1/4 to perhaps 1/8 Kelly resizing so when you do resize its not as dramatic and does not damage long run as much. This way you have a 0% ror and a long run approaching that of a fixed bettor.

 

[zengrifter]

Bet 1/4 to perhaps 1/8 Kelly

So what would be my bet range with $15k? z:laugh:g

Ps - Genius, is that you?

 

[blackjack avenger]

N0

So what would be my bet range with $15k? z:laugh:g

Ps - Genius, is that you?

Smaller banks start half Kelly and let grow to a more conservative fraction before raising bets.

Standard investment strategy is to be more conservative with larger sums.

Most cannot reach the long run of Kelly continuous resizing.

 

[junior_counter]

kewljason, appreciate comments.

... It is important that you be prepared for that both financially (BR) and mentally.

Yes, mentally is what's tough. Have the proper bankroll and know in the long run math will work for a profit, but still have the heart race slightly when it's time to buck up. Eventually goes away in longer sessions. I trust the math, but will be nice having experienced doubling the bankroll. Still in a longgg test phase, in part due to too small of a spread for shoe games I play. I should say it's more of a test of personal performance under live conditions, not a test to prove the math.

Try to always focus on the longterm and not these short term down turns. Easier said than done, I know, but if you measure you short term results by EV instead of actual win/loss, it helps a great deal and eventually the actual win/loss will come in line with the EV. EVENTUALLY!

Good perspective as usual. I've read this from a post of yours in past and have been looking at it in this manner. Overall, I admire the advice, insight you've shared as an experienced AP on the boards and have been trying to use much of this for guidance. In particular, when my unit base $ increases, I'll probably move to your hit and run tactics. Right now I think it's ok to linger a little in any one place w/ the small unit base I use. Thanks for noting your recent larger variance swing experience w/ selecting higher penetration games.

To zengrifter: Got it. Cap'ece.

Thx to all other posters commenting on experiences as well.

 

[blackjack avenger]

i misread your post

I thought you were referring to resizing all bets.

Yes, increase your spread.
Ignore short term variance, long run will improve.

 

[forwhat77]

Yes raising your spread like that will result in higher earnings, but unforetunately the price you pay will be larger swings both ways to get there. It is important that you be prepared for that both financially (BR) and mentally. Try to always focus on the longterm and not these short term down turns. Easier said than done, I know, but if you measure you short term results by EV instead of actual win/loss, it helps a great deal and eventually the actual win/loss will come in line with the EV. EVENTUALLY!

I made a change in my game this year which also resulted in larger swings. I didn't change or increase my spread as much as seeking out games with better penetration which means more high counts. But the end result is pretty much the same, higher longterm EV, but bigger swings to get there. I have encounted 10 swings of 400 or more units in a single day over the first half of the year, which is about double, what I had encountered over 7 years prior to that. So that took some getting used to. As I said, staying focused on longterm results rather than short and measuring your session, daily or trip results in EV instead of actual results really helps me.

Kewl,
It's a relief reading this post even though I still don't feel good at the moment..Have gone on a 580 unit negative streak this week, and let me tell you it's got me feeling some kind of way at the moment. I know that it was all put out in positive EV situations, but it still takes some getting used too..

If I might ask, how long does it usually take you to recover from those type of days? Do you take a break like you do after a large winning session? Or do you just keep chugging?