My betting strategy, the safest one yet!

[Thunder]

I play at Atlantic City fairly often and this strategy works the best other than Card Counting but is the hardest to implement as it requires discipline and not a lot of people have it. First I search the tables where the dealer has been working there for a long time. (best bet is early in the morning like at 3am) If I'm at a $10 table, I'll bring $400 with me and bet $10 a hand, every hand until I win $100 or lose $400. Right off the back I expect to have an advantage as more often than not over the period of a couple of hours, the dealer will make a mistake that works in your favor. (paying you when they shouldn't, showing u their hole card accidentally, etc) This usually I have found makes you break even or ahead of the house in the long run if you're playing bs. Now combine that with doubling down or playing splits for dumbheads at the table who couldn't recognize an advantage play from their ass, and you got the recipe for making money. Add on to that the fact that I get comped and get cash incentives to go to some casinos and I have found that I do pretty well. For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

 

[Mikeaber]

Near as I can tell from a first read, Thunder, you are doing nothing other than flat betting, using basic strategy and taking advantage of mistakes. That's a good formula. Nothing magic. I applaud your judgement. Though if you are doing okay, why would you walk when you are ahead $100?

 

[Thunder]

Sorry, I forgot to mention that if I'm up to $100, I keep playing until I lose like 2 in a row or if I'm really greedy, I'll keep playing until I go back down to $100 or make like $200. Reason why I chose $100 is that I have found that a 25% profit objective will be reached far more often than a 50% profit ojective as the standard deviation from break even point is far more likely to happen at 25% vs 50% profits. It doesn't mean that I always leave for the day though. Usually, I'll just take a food break break or go for a stroll on the boardwalk to recharge my batteries and then go at it again. It's also better I think to cash out at lower amounts more often in the short run because then you can reinvest your winnings for a compound effect ($400*1.25^4)>$400+$400 (winnings). I have found that strategies like Oscar's grind, martingale, positive regression etc to require too much capital and don't work more often than not if you're playing over a 2 or 3 day trip.

 

[zengrifter]

Thunder, there is no statistical validy whatsoever to your system. Further, I sincerely doubt that you have even learned basic strategy. Am I right? zg

 

[Thunder]

Zengrifter, with all due respect, you couldn't be farther from the truth. I have mastered basic strategy and can do hi-lo for 8 decks when I focus intently. What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

 

[zengrifter]

Zengrifter, with all due respect, you couldn't be farther from the truth. I have mastered basic strategy and can do hi-lo for 8 decks when I focus intently. What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

The part below sounded like flat betting, not counting. Statistically you may win the 100 75% of the time, but that doesn't make it a longterm winner. zg

If I'm at a $10 table, I'll bring $400 with me and bet $10 a hand, every hand until I win $100 or lose $400. Right off the back I expect to have an advantage as more often than not over the period of a couple of hours, the dealer will make a mistake that works in your favor. (paying you when they shouldn't, showing u their hole card accidentally, etc) This usually I have found makes you break even or ahead of the house in the long run if you're playing bs. Now combine that with doubling down or playing splits for dumbheads at the table who couldn't recognize an advantage play from their ass, and you got the recipe for making money. Add on to that the fact that I get comped and get cash incentives to go to some casinos and I have found that I do pretty well. For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400.

 

[Gregory]

It looks like a solid strategy to me, and that is a big plus in my book. Simply entering a casino with a pocket full of cash and no plan whatsoever is a recipe for disaster, so you deal with that well. However, if you aren't handling the percentage that the house always has even on the best BS player, the odds will get even in the end.
Yes, some dealers do make mistakes, but I have never personally seen enough mistakes happen to overcome the house advantage. The usual recourse when a dealer blunders is that players can pull their bets if they wish before the hand is resolved. This would have no impact if you have a good hand already.
Getting paid on a dealer miscount does happen, just not as often as we all wish.
I imagine for every mistake the dealer makes, most players will make a matching mistake. It may be as simple as not doubling down when they should, but very few players never make a mistake.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking your system. Not at all. In fact, it is pretty much exactly how I handle my gambling as well and any player who just uses basic strategy should heed your advice. But in the long run the odds will get even and the only way to overcome them is to count the cards on a dealer who offers decent penetration.

 

[jimbiggs]

If I have $400 in my pocket going into the casino, and leave with only $500, I feel dissappointed.

Maybe you're strategy works for you if all you want to do is break even (counting comps and other offers). However, it would be easier to break even if you didn't play at all in the first place. Actually, if you win $100 75% of the time and lose $400 25% the time, then you're not winning at all.

 

[ScottH]

For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

So you expect to win the 100 dollars 75% of the time (3 out of 4 times). That is a total of 300 dollars. The fourth time you lose 400. You can expect to lose 100 dollars ever 4 attempts with this system. I have no idea where you came up with 75 percent, and I am not sure if it's right, but assuming that's the case your system doesn't seem very good to me.

 

[ScottH]

What part of my strategy would you say there is no statistical validity for Zen. I will gladly prove you wrong...

There is no statistical validity to the whole thing. There are no betting strategies that can overcome the house edge. The only way to overcome the house edge in the long-run in by counting. You didn't mention anything about counting in your system. I find it hard to believe that benefits from dealer mistakes can overcome the house advantage. Maybe they can in a couple sessions, but doubfully over the long-run.

 

[Cass]

I play at Atlantic City fairly often and this strategy works the best other than Card Counting but is the hardest to implement as it requires discipline and not a lot of people have it. First I search the tables where the dealer has been working there for a long time. (best bet is early in the morning like at 3am) If I'm at a $10 table, I'll bring $400 with me and bet $10 a hand, every hand until I win $100 or lose $400. Right off the back I expect to have an advantage as more often than not over the period of a couple of hours, the dealer will make a mistake that works in your favor. (paying you when they shouldn't, showing u their hole card accidentally, etc) This usually I have found makes you break even or ahead of the house in the long run if you're playing bs. Now combine that with doubling down or playing splits for dumbheads at the table who couldn't recognize an advantage play from their ass, and you got the recipe for making money. Add on to that the fact that I get comped and get cash incentives to go to some casinos and I have found that I do pretty well. For futher gains, use card counting when you can and I'd say you're quite likely to win the $100 more than 75% of the time before u lose your bankroll of $400. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Hmmm I really doubt that the dealers are paying you when they shouldnt be and flashing there hole card often enough that it matters. Your stop points dont mean anything at all. If you are piggybacking on other players hands, and comp counting, Over the long run you would probably be about even. Now imagine if you were counting cards. Think how much money you could make.

 

[Mikeaber]

Clarification

Folks, what he described was not a "betting strategy" in the conotation of some wild progression. What he described is a flat betting/Basic Strategy player sticking with what works best if you are not playing with a counting system. His smoke and mirror presentation was just his way of describing his floor and ceiling limits, imposed as a way to manage his bankroll. His 40x bankroll is not bad for a flat betting rule of thumb. Granted, over a period of time, his risk of ruin is certain since he's playing against a house edge that will eventually get him, but in the short term, he'll probably last quite a while.

 

[Thunder]

Alright I seem to have confused a lot of people. So let me clarify a few things. $-400 is your stop loss point as well as $100. That in no way means you only make $100 each time!
$100 is your minimum goal. So realistically there will be days where you make $150, $200, even more if you're really on a roll. So it does make up for the one really bad day you have. Secondly, I did advise card counting when you can SCOTT. Even if you can't count the whole deck, it will help you. I just took a trip yesterday to Bally's and I know you won't believe me but there were three dealer mistakes, two of which benefited me and gave me a total of $50 when I was betting $25/hand. ($25 was my initial bet) (my favorite dealer mistake of all time was the dealer who was so tired that he paid me off when he busted even though I already had busted, because I had immediately put my chips in the betting spot for the next hand and he was too tired to recognize that my cards were gone!) I digress. Now once again to reiterate. If Bally's gives you $15, and trump taj mahal gives you a $20 match play for each time you come, that is roughly $34 or so of free money assuming u go once a month and u win a little under 50% of your hands in bj. Now let's assume you play perfect Atlantic City Bs at the $10 tables for a total of 6 hours for each trip. Your expected loss from just flat betting would be $2.88/hour assuming the house has an edge of .48% and you play 60 hands an hour. Take that $2.88 and multiply it by the 6 hours you play and that's $17.28 that you give the house edge. The freebies that you got from Bally's and Taj were worth $34, so you're left with a $16.72 profit. Now add on the $12 or so in free comps that you can expect to make in that time. That equals $28.72. Now assume the dealer makes one mistake and you are able to double down on someone else's hand once for $10. You're looking at around (my guess) another $7 in profit right there (obviously depending on the dealer mistake and the ev of the other person's double down hand) $28.72+$7=$35.72 I would say that ain't bad for a once a month trip to just have some fun. Obviously if u card count, that's going to make the number go up. I just did this all to show that in my opinion, the house doesn't really have an edge and that you shouldn't look at bs with disciplined play as a losing proposition. The problem I have sometimes with counting is you need a huge bankroll to really make a dent against the house and it takes away from the fun of the game. I pissed off a waitress yesterday so much because I was busy counting and she was standing there waiting for a tip. (she muttered a curse under her breath at me before leaving) I couldn't help but think what an impatient b-tch. You also are going to piss off a lot of players at the table when you hit the 12 against a 14 when the count is really bad and then the dealer doesn't break because u got the 8 or 9 while the dealer got 21 instead of 24 or 25. Also has anyone done a study to see if it makes a difference in your expected earnings if everyone at the table plays perfect bs vs just some people? (card clumping effect)

 

[ScottH]

Also has anyone done a study to see if it makes a difference in your expected earnings if everyone at the table plays perfect bs vs just some people? (card clumping effect)

I can't remember where, but there was a recent post similar to this. The answer is that other players' play does not affect you in any way.

 

[zengrifter]

Thunder, I have to admit that you talk a pretty good game, you could be a future generation John Patrick or Ronald Dahl... or you could cut the crap, hunker down, and really learn the deal. If I had any way to prove it I would wager real money that you don't know BS cold. zg

 

[newyorkbear]

In most AC casinos,dealers will easily make three mistakes in six hours.On the overnite shift,I've seen three mistakes in a shoe.

 

[Mikeaber]

In most AC casinos,dealers will easily make three mistakes in six hours.On the overnite shift,I've seen three mistakes in a shoe.

The "dealer error" factor was the one factor in Thunder's explanation that I cannot allign with. My experience in Kansas City and surrounding "local" casinos is that there are very few if any dealer errors made that are not "caught" and corrected before any gain to the players is realized. Of course there are exceptions, but not enough to radically impact any expected returns. That's an unsubstantiated observation, but one that I maintain as correct in my area of the country. However, I am constantly on the lookout for potential opportunities with green dealers or those who have become careless.

On the other hand, food comps and room comps are not difficult to obtain. For a BS ploppie, that is a significant factor. Rooms do not cost the casinos much but their value to me is significant in comparrison to the bankroll I play with. I'll play BS and win some trips and lose other trips at the table, but with the room and food comps, it makes for a very cheap way to spend a weekend detached from lawn mowing duties! The only expense we are out is usually just the gasoline and Turnpike Fares.

Notice that I didn't include "free drinks". In Missouri, the State will not allow drinks to be comp'd.

 

[Thunder]

Thunder, I have to admit that you talk a pretty good game, you could be a future generation John Patrick or Ronald Dahl... or you could cut the crap, hunker down, and really learn the deal. If I had any way to prove it I would wager real money that you don't know BS cold. zg

Well Zengrifter, the way I see it, you make far too many assumptions about me considering that you don't know me. If you really want to be stupid enough to bet me that I don't know BS cold, we can arrange for a bet to be made in person at Atlantic City or in the DC area with a few witnesses armed with a basic strategy chart for 8 deck bj with Atlantic City rules. And just to make it my worthwhile, I would request a minimum bet of $500. Otherwise, I would request that you don't make faulty assumptions about me.

 

[Thunder]

The "dealer error" factor was the one factor in Thunder's explanation that I cannot allign with. My experience in Kansas City and surrounding "local" casinos is that there are very few if any dealer errors made that are not "caught" and corrected before any gain to the players is realized. Of course there are exceptions, but not enough to radically impact any expected returns. That's an unsubstantiated observation, but one that I maintain as correct in my area of the country. However, I am constantly on the lookout for potential opportunities with green dealers or those who have become careless.

On the other hand, food comps and room comps are not difficult to obtain. For a BS ploppie, that is a significant factor. Rooms do not cost the casinos much but their value to me is significant in comparrison to the bankroll I play with. I'll play BS and win some trips and lose other trips at the table, but with the room and food comps, it makes for a very cheap way to spend a weekend detached from lawn mowing duties! The only expense we are out is usually just the gasoline and Turnpike Fares.

Notice that I didn't include "free drinks". In Missouri, the State will not allow drinks to be comp'd.

Mike,
Go to Atlantic City and play at places like Resorts or Wild Wild West Casino. Plenty of green dealers.

 

[newyorkbear]

Late shifts Tuesday and Wednesday,I'd throw in the Sands,as well.