My card counting results and findings

[BillytheBJkid]

About a year ago I began studying card counting and playing blackjack. I bought books by revere and stanley wong and read several more, plus all the info on this site and the free book modern blackjack from qfit. All good stuff and I learned alot. Problem is this has not translated into big profits. After playing over 160 hours in atlantic city and being both up and down a lot, I am currently about even, plus $40. That doesn't begin to cover my expenses.

I am concluding that it is nearly impossible to make any real money card counting todays blackjack games. I am not basing this solely on my results either. Take a look at the 2010 results poll posted by ken smith in the general blackjack section. Of the 107 players only 17 were able to make a decent living of $50,000 or more. More than that (20) actually lost money for the year!!

I have corresponded with several players who claim to be in the 50K group and met and played twice with one guy in atlantic city. He did pretty well the 2 days I played with him and I don't doubt he is making money, but he is a complete freak. Completely consumed with blackjack. He spends as much time looking for games to play as actually playing. Then when he finds a game, only plays for a short time and is off again. Add all this time up and he works far more than a person at a regular 40 hour job. Where is the great riches and joy in this? I think this thinking is something left over from the 70's, no longer acheivable in todays games. Especially 8 deck games in atlantic city. All those decks mixed together makes card counting no longer work. Even the guy I met last year has moved to los vegas to play better games, that I guess they have there.

So my findings are that unless you are a complete blackjack freak, obsessed with blackjack and willing to work harder that an average joe with a 9-5er, plus have a large bankroll that you are willing to risk, there is no sense on trying to be a pro blackjack player.

Team play: lot of players talking about team play on this site. I saw the movie '21' and read parts of the book (boring) but really don't know if team play still works today and you can earn decent money. I would think they are on to it by now.

All of my play so far has taken place in atlantic city. I hope to test out new blackjack games in delaware and pennsylvania this summer and would like to try games in los vegas sometime to compare. Unforetunately the places in atlantic city don't give good enough comps at the $10 table to get free rooms in los vegas, plus only ballys and harrah even have casinos there. So if anyone wants to put up a fellow card counter for a few nights...lol

So are there conclutions wrong? How many of you are really making any money?

 

[SystemsTrader]

Excellent post Billy. This might become an interesting thread. First off you must realise that most people here just do this part time to supplement their incomes and for the pure enjoyment of playing and beating the casinos. Most don't expect to make a lot of money at it. There is no doubt the quality of games has become much worse over the years. If it was really easy to beat the casinos everybody would do it and the casinos would not be in business very long.

You also must realise that it takes a while to hit the long run and see any decent returns. You really haven't put in that many hours. I remember for myself when I hit the 3 year point of playing I was in a terrible losing streak and was up only $100 after 3 years of playing and I was thinking wtf I'm I doing this for. But I stuck with it and things quickly turned around for me and my EV is now right about were it should be. There is no doubt straight counting against the 8 deck monsters is a grind and a tough way to make a living. It does take money in this game to make money.

But now that you are making your way through the novice learning curve maybe its time to start thinking outside the box. Again just card counting is going the way of the dinosaur you must learn to evolve if you plan to make decent money at this game. There are advanced techniques which must be learned and exploited if you want to make a living at this game. Counting alone just doesn't cut it anymore. I do know a guy who makes a living just counting but with a few AP moves and does quite well. I'm just a part timer myself but I constantly keep my eyes open and every now and then you come across a gem of a situation which can be exploited.

There's an old saying "many are called but few are chosen". There are some out there making lots of money at this game, I've seen it myself but they also put in a ton of work and keep an open mind to many situations. No matter what the vocation, being successful doesn't come easy for anyone. Hard work and skills are always needed. Maybe this game just isn't for you and that's nothing to be a shamed of or maybe you will stick with it and find your path to enlightenment.

 

[johndoe]

Making "real" money at anything isn't easy.

You expect that learning a trivial skill like card counting is the road to quick riches and idle lifestyle? I think your expectations are way out of whack.

I'm also a little surprised at your deriding the blackjack "freak" - who spent more time looking around than actually playing, but somehow actually made decent money. Surprise, maybe he's on to something.

A lot of people here are weekend warriors, content in making a few bucks here and there, and only a very small number are professionals. Making a few thousand extra a year for a few weekend trips isn't so bad for many. But even that's unlikely to happen playing the $10 tables, as you have seen.

And your complaint about 8D being poor because of all those decks "all mixed together" is pretty silly.

But you're right, in that card counting isn't a way to quick easy wealth, like it is in the movies. Welcome to the real world!

 

[BillytheBJkid]

The term 'freak' wasn't meant to deride anyone. I am glad this guy took the time to meet me and showed me some things. I just meant that he was very fanatical about blackjack. Much more so than I am. I am interested in making a living, but don't want to spend all my time in the casino. I want to spend time with my girlfriend and other parts of life.

 

[Sucker]

A $10 bettor in A.C. who's employing a 1-12 spread and who's willing to scout around for the best conditions (penetration, etc.) will probably average something like $2 an hour. So you are actually below expectation. You should probably be about $320 ahead, which works out to $80 for a 40 hour work week.

Now:
Imagine that you were to find someone, and fill his head with stories of all the
riches and the "wonderful" life of a professional blackjack player.
Now imagine that you were to teach him how to count cards, under the condition that he had to split his profits with you.

NEXT; imagine that you are a very bright college student who is attending a major college, and you have a very good gift of gab. Your gift is SO persuasive that you somehow con 200 people into working for you. Two hundred people making $80 a week comes out to $16,000 a week. Half of it is YOURS.

Oh - I almost forgot. Part of the agreement was that ALL of the comps belong to YOU. So you open a travel agency and make extra money SELLING room comps!

Put this all together, and that should be strong enough to get you into the
"Blackjack Hall of BS".

The movie was 98% hogwash! In the words of the immortal Paul Harvey; NOW you know the REST of the story.

Good --- DAY!

 

[BillytheBJkid]

From the infomation I have read and a computer run that someone did for me last fall, it was my understanding that you should be able to make somewhere between 1 and 2 units per hour. At a $10 table that would be $10-20 per hour not $2, sucker. As for the pyramid scheme part of your message, I am not sure what you are trying to say.

 

[Sucker]

In a perfect world, with the best possible rules, penetration, and game conditions; it MAY be possible to attain a win rate of 1-2 small bets per hour; and even THAT is dubious. But that world no longer exists, and it's only getting WORSE.

We were talking about Atlantic City, with eight decks, generally poor penetration, less than optimal rules; and tons of NMS games. A place where more than half of your time has to be spent scouting, if you want to make any money at all.

While I will concede that you're probably right, and my $2/hr figure probably IS a bit too much of a lowball; I was mainly trying to make the point that in the real world it's going to be nowhere NEAR the claims espoused by the authors who are trying to sell books. One thing for sure; the real-world figure is going to be much closer to $2 than it is to $10-$20.

As far as the second part of my post; "pyramid scheme" is way too strong of a word for it. It was merely a business arrangement, and a very SMART way of doing business. The "bit" players didn't actually LOSE, they just didn't make anything near what was represented to them.

What I was trying to say was: The only ones who really made any money on that team was the organizers of the team, and THAT'S how they made the vast MAJORITY of their money; not through hands-on play, as was represented in the movie.

 

[BillytheBJkid]

So solo players can't make any money and team players can't make any money. What is the purpose of this site then? Is it just a scam run by the casino's to get new people interested in the game. Then players play for a while, lose and eventually move on, while a new crop of young college guys comes along and takes their place? Come to think of it, I don't even see many of the players that I spoke with last year still posting. The Flash, kewljayson, matt21, the panther. Have they all moved on and now been replaced with this years crop of college counter want-a-be's?

 

[Sonny]

...it was my understanding that you should be able to make somewhere between 1 and 2 units per hour. At a $10 table that would be $10-20 per hour not $2, sucker.

Probably it was 1-2 units per 100 hands. The $5 and $10 tables are going to be very crowded so you may only be getting 50-60 hands per hour, which brings the EV down to $5-$10. When you include all the “walk around” time it drops your hourly profit even more. And we haven’t even talked about travel and per diem costs yet.

As you said, counting cards takes a lot of work. It's really not a viable career choice for most people. Card counting can be perfect for recreation players who just want some additional income and/or comps, but most successful players have found stronger advantages and better opportunities.

I know it can be very frustrating for new players. Keep reading, keep studying, keep practicing and always be looking for new opportunities. If you stick with it you will learn some amazing things. You will reach a level of skill that you didn't think was possible. You will see unbelievable things that have been under your nose for years. You will find money in places that nobody else is looking. (hopefully!)

But you have to be honest with yourself too...

I am interested in making a living, but don't want to spend all my time in the casino.

If you don't like spending time in casinos then you're definitely looking in the wrong place. If you want a job where you can make a good living while starting from scratch without much knowledge, training or experience then you are going to be disappointed many times. Any job is going to require a lot of time "at the office" (and probably some time in some sort of school or training program) before you get to a point where you are making a good living and not grinding out a paycheck. Playing cards is no different.

-Sonny-

 

[golfnut101]

They are still here, posting on a reg basis. One observation-consider yourself fortunate to be able to not only hook up with, but extract info from a experienced "bj freak". I would kill to be able to spend a couple days with someone who isd passionate and experienced. You are lucky ! Listen and practice your tail off, cause this ride is NOT for the faint of heart.
Best of luck

 

[BillytheBJkid]

Probably it was 1-2 units per 100 hands. The $5 and $10 tables are going to be very crowded so you may only be getting 50-60 hands per hour, which brings the EV down to $5-$10. When you include all the “walk around” time it drops your hourly profit even more. And we haven’t even talked about travel and per diem costs yet.

As you said, counting cards takes a lot of work. It's really not a viable career choice for most people. Card counting can be perfect for recreation players who just want some additional income and/or comps, but most successful players have found stronger advantages and better opportunities.

I know it can be very frustrating for new players. Keep reading, keep studying, keep practicing and always be looking for new opportunities. If you stick with it you will learn some amazing things. You will reach a level of skill that you didn't think was possible. You will see unbelievable things that have been under your nose for years. You will find money in places that nobody else is looking. (hopefully!)

But you have to be honest with yourself too...



If you don't like spending time in casinos then you're definitely looking in the wrong place. If you want a job where you can make a good living while starting from scratch without much knowledge, training or experience then you are going to be disappointed many times. Any job is going to require a lot of time "at the office" (and probably some time in some sort of school or training program) before you get to a point where you are making a good living and not grinding out a paycheck. Playing cards is no different.

-Sonny-

yeah I know what you mean about the $10 tables being full. hard to play many hands per hour. And on weekends they don't even have $10 tables. they all raise to $15 and $25. I take it moderator means you work for this site? are you a professional player as well?

 

[Sonny]

What is the purpose of this site then? Is it just a scam run by the casino's to get new people interested in the game.

Okay, now you're just trolling. Spend more time listening and learning. You got some good answers in your Counting Doesn't Work thread. Take the time to learn how to play a strong game before you give up hope.

-Sonny-

 

[BillytheBJkid]

Okay, now you're just trolling. Spend more time listening and learning. You got some good answers in your Counting Doesn't Work thread. Take the time to learn how to play a strong game before you give up hope.

-Sonny-

you lost me on the 'trolling' thing?? but yeah, I have always gotten good advise from this site. thanx everyone

 

[Sonny]

you lost me on the 'trolling' thing??

Nothing personal. It's just that the old "Card counting doesn't work!" and "The authors and websites work for the casinos!" lines are the mantra of the trolls. Don't let them get you down. You can succeed at anything if you take the time and effort to do it properly. If it were easy, the trolls would be doing it too.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

In a perfect world, with the best possible rules, penetration, and game conditions; it MAY be possible to attain a win rate of 1-2 small bets per hour; and even THAT is dubious. But that world no longer exists, and it's only getting WORSE.

We were talking about Atlantic City, with eight decks, generally poor penetration, less than optimal rules; and tons of NMS games. A place where more than half of your time has to be spent scouting, if you want to make any money at all.

While I will concede that you're probably right, and my $2/hr figure probably IS a bit too much of a lowball; I was mainly trying to make the point that in the real world it's going to be nowhere NEAR the claims espoused by the authors who are trying to sell books. One thing for sure; the real-world figure is going to be much closer to $2 than it is to $10-$20.

As far as the second part of my post; "pyramid scheme" is way too strong of a word for it. It was merely a business arrangement, and a very SMART way of doing business. The "bit" players didn't actually LOSE, they just didn't make anything near what was represented to them.

What I was trying to say was: The only ones who really made any money on that team was the organizers of the team, and THAT'S how they made the vast MAJORITY of their money; not through hands-on play, as was represented in the movie.

The real world figure is about $20 for what you are describing, more if you can backcount two tables. Far more than half of your time will be spent doing something other than playing, and that's as it should be. If you are playing straight BJ there's no reason to be playing more than 5-10 hands per hour there. Unless you're playing SP21 or 6:5, you can make a little more in those games. :devil:

I agree that we all should avoid hustlers, system sellers, people who advertise that they are part of a team and you could be too, and all authors other than those who emphasize the technical aspects of the game.

 

[BillytheBJkid]

update

Just an update on my results. I have had 8 more blackjack trips this summer to borgota in atalntic city and a couple trips to delaware park and one trip to parks casino in bucks county. I didnot like the parks casino because you could not see the cards after the hand was played, so couldn't figure out remaining decks. whats up wit dat? My totals since I started playing a year ago are 208 hours plus 547.50 dolars. This sucks. it coms out to about $2.50 an hour, playing 410 tables. Itis better than I was doing at the start though when I was losing after many hours. I keep trying this to see if it really works, but really am ot sure anyone can make any kind of real money or have it be there job like people here say.

 

[sabre]

I keep trying this to see if it really works, but really am ot sure anyone can make any kind of real money or have it be there job like people here say.

Your sample size is woefully insignificant to justify your comments. It's kind of akin to me saying that nobody wins the lottery because I lost on the ticket I played last night.

 

[matt21]

So solo players can't make any money and team players can't make any money. What is the purpose of this site then? Is it just a scam run by the casino's to get new people interested in the game. Then players play for a while, lose and eventually move on, while a new crop of young college guys comes along and takes their place? Come to think of it, I don't even see many of the players that I spoke with last year still posting. The Flash, kewljayson, matt21, the panther. Have they all moved on and now been replaced with this years crop of college counter want-a-be's?

hey billy, since you mentioned my name - i thought i make a quick reply. firstly i hope you are not saying I am a college counter want-a-be :grin:

My lucrative playing venues dried up as a result of being barred and I have not invested the time to learn skills to move beyond counting, nor to pursue new playing venues. Following that I did some more "real work" in consultancy, and then also investigated online bonus hunting. For the last 3 months I have been working on applying the card counting/gambling principles to the financial markets. Am working on this full-time with another trader and so far it's looking promising. However I am still often thinking about blackjack and how to get back into it -though right now it's not the best money making opportunity for me. The thing is you have to keep on looking and adapting, always looking for new opportunities - and stay one step ahead to make the dollars!

Unfortunately whether it's professional gambling or the financial markets, it does help significantly if you already have a bankroll behind you.

I think the other thing with cards (or any project) is that you need to have a huge passion for it and be willing to work very hard. If you love it, then you wont mind putting in the hours.

Good luck to you

PS In terms of this site - I have made some excellent contacts on here, some of whom I have the pleasure to meet in person, and the learning I have taken from this site has been outstanding. I would never have achieved what I did in blackjack without this site. So if it is a casino scam then it back-fired very badly :cool2:

 

[kewljason]

hey billy, since you mentioned my name - i thought i make a quick reply. firstly i hope you are not saying I am a college counter want-a-be :grin:

My lucrative playing venues dried up as a result of being barred and I have not invested the time to learn skills to move beyond counting, nor to pursue new playing venues. Following that I did some more "real work" in consultancy, and then also investigated online bonus hunting. For the last 3 months I have been working on applying the card counting/gambling principles to the financial markets. Am working on this full-time with another trader and so far it's looking promising. However I am still often thinking about blackjack and how to get back into it -though right now it's not the best money making opportunity for me. The thing is you have to keep on looking and adapting, always looking for new opportunities - and stay one step ahead to make the dollars!

Unfortunately whether it's professional gambling or the financial markets, it does help significantly if you already have a bankroll behind you.

I think the other thing with cards (or any project) is that you need to have a huge passion for it and be willing to work very hard. If you love it, then you wont mind putting in the hours.

Good luck to you

PS In terms of this site - I have made some excellent contacts on here, some of whom I have the pleasure to meet in person, and the learning I have taken from this site has been outstanding. I would never have achieved what I did in blackjack without this site. So if it is a casino scam then it back-fired very badly :cool2:

Matt21! Good to see you post. Sorry to hear the opportunities you were so excited about a while back have dried up. Hopfully you cashed in big while you could. And glad to see you having success in other areas.

Sounds like you haven't lost your passion for counting and AP and before long you will be back here posting regularly about your exploits. I look forward to that as I enjoy and miss your posts and particularly learned alot from your meticulous method of record keeping. While I have always kept acurate records, I tend not to go back and look at them that much. In dealing with the ups and downs of counter, I kind of adopted an attitude similar to a baseball player, who just gave up a 3 run homerun or who has struck out in his last 3 at bats, that the past is over and you move forward from here. For that reason, I tended not to dwell on the past, nor past records to much.

Your posts showed me that there is a lot to learn from your past records and past trials, so I do analize my past performance a little more now. I try to find a happy medium.

Continued luck to you and look forward to hearing from you again in the future.

 

[Dopple]

I want to thank Matt, Jason, and Sonny for all their help over the years. This was a great post and it does take alot of time and commitment to pursue this endeavor.

You have to learn to roll with the punches too.