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My final conclusion on card-counting

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by matt21, Feb 4, 2009.

  1. Richard Munchkin

    Richard Munchkin Well-Known Member

    I predict you will find yourself wrong on both counts. Eventually someone will pick you off and rat you out in hopes of appearing smart or furthering their own career. When that happens they will send your name (since you are using a players card) to the other casinos in your area and you will find yourself barred at all of them.

    I'm not saying you are doing anything wrong. At your betting level those comps are meaningful. But eventually you will get barred.
     
  2. snorky

    snorky Well-Known Member

    So what are you suggesting? Are you saying it is better to play unrated at all levels or just suggesting that it's pointless to even bother card counting.
     
  3. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    I think he is saying that eventually you will get barred, so if you enjoy card counting and wish to continue, it would be prudent to begin playing unrated. That way the consequences of being barred will be minimal. In no way do I read that he believes card counting in pointless.
     
  4. Freightman

    Freightman Active Member

    He is a bigger nerd than me - and I mean that in a complementary way

    I was impressed with the amount of detail in his spreadsheet. A cursory look tells me that his playing style is not overly aggressive. He is winning just over 50% of his sessions. His standard deviation appears to be rather conservative, and so, his profit of just under 1.5 units an hour seems to be about right. He may be well be playing quality games, albeit very conservatively. My opinion is that anyone who is prepared to record the amount of detail that he has done, has also put in the requisite amount of study and preparation. That being said, his conservative betting style is likely a combination of bankroll size and perhaps, an experiment on his part to see if he can actually do it.

    This individual perhaps gets bored with a project once he has "mastered it" (a premature comment perhaps that should be taken in context) and so is going onto the next one. I would also express the opinion that is 1.5 unit per hour profit is based on a betting ramp of increasing 1 unit per rise in true count, possibly spreading to 2 hands in high counts. Because of his unit size, I would suggest that his BJ bankroll is still somewhat modest. I would encourage this individual to continue playing, to continue increasing bankroll. At such point that his/her ror approaches 0 on his current betting strategy, I would encourage this person to get some simulation software, and to increase his betting ramps based on simulations. I would also tell this individual that 3 to 4 units per hour, as you have stated, is entirely achievable.

    Locally, I still use a 5.00 unit with a 5 or 10.00 min- and am averaging just under 7 units per hour for the past year. Granted, that is based on a bloated BJ Bankroll with no ror. I hope that comment encouages the individual to continue and further develop his skills.
     
  5. matt21

    matt21 Well-Known Member

    Hey Freightman, thanks for your post. You were quite spot on about some of the points you estimated!
    Yes I did put in quite a bit of preparation and study into card counting (I think this generally always pays off). Although on paper the playing style might not have looked aggressive I felt it was reasonably so with spreading 1x1 to 2x12 units for most of my play. Yes the games were/are of reasonable quality. Bankroll-wise I have always been well-funded thus far – quite quickly the bet sizing was more constrained by heat considerations rather than bankroll ROR issues.
    One thing that often does surprise me is that people with relatively small bankrolls are willing to put in a lot of time and effort into this stuff – I generally don’t like to invest time and effort unless I can expect to make a good amount of money out of it.
    7 units per hour, just from counting is superb. Presumably this is based on actual results, rather than a sim? I would think making 7 units an hour is unlikely from straight card counting. But either way that sounds like great work.
    In the end (thus far) I made a reasonable amount of money from card counting and related adventures. My bankroll is now a decent size and I’m also using it to trade the equity and foreign exchange markets. If you include the financial speculations in the definition of ‘professional gambling’ then I would be ok to say that I have now been a professional gambler for some three and a half years now – since casino games and the financial markets have been my principal source of income over that time.
     
  6. FrankieT

    FrankieT Well-Known Member

    I didn't state that the money goes up in a linear fashion in any sense. you have a 1/4 chance of being down after 200 hrs of play, and 1/8 chance of being down after 400 hrs of play. So even if you played as many hours as a full time job for two months, you'd have a 1/8 chance of being down. But on the flipside, you also have 1/8 chance of winning a ton of money. Playing the top 10% pen games is important, as it will drastically lower you're NO - the number of hands you have to go through to overcome one standard deviation.
     
  7. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    not so sure

    Playing with a 6 figure bank is not about trying to place 3g bets, with the associated heat. It's the ability to place bets at low fractions of Kelly so one does not have to substantially cut bets on losses. One still wants to play a strong game with a low N0. The risk of hitting table minimums is about nil. Also, it makes covering expenses much easier. The problem comes with small banks, table minimums & expenses. A big bank has to play within the table limits of the casinos available.

    Many mid level players probably have the same betting ramp as some high stakes players. The difference is the high level player resizes his bank less on losses.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2011
  8. mrboxingfan

    mrboxingfan Member

    What system did you use ?
     
  9. matt21

    matt21 Well-Known Member

    Well, it's a shame that the message boards are going to be archived - but fair go, we are getting a free service here!

    I just also wanted to say thank you so much for providing this forum for such a long time. Like several others, I ahve to honestly say that ALL the valuable AP contacts I made in the AP world have directly or directly stemmed from this forum. And I would never have progressed to whatever stage I am at now, was it not for this forum! Also I will finally add that I was actually based in the United Kingdom for most of my play - I was very anal in trying to keep a low profile when I first started, but I think it doesn't matter so much now (plus some smart people would have undoubtedly realiZed this from some of my spellings.

    And the BJ Bash 2009 was a great one - thanks for the invite CP!

    Thanks BlackjackInfo!! Thanks Ken Smith!!

    Good luck to all the players out there ;)

    For anyone wanting to get in contact you can email me at **** email address removed by request ****. (and no, neither Matt nor Greg are my real name)
    I will also try to join a couple of other forums using the same handle.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 27, 2013

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