My strategy for playing Perfect Pairs (30 to 1 payout)

garygo

Active Member
#1
According to my experience, the majority of time when I play BJ with CSMs, at lease one Perfect Pairs appears (within 30-60 hands), plus many other pairs (coloured pairs and mixed pairs).

* For simplicity reason, Perfect Pairs will be shortened to PP in all subsequent passages.

Though a CSM seems a bad thing to BJ players, it is not that bad in terms of PP. With a 6-deck game, the house edge for PP is much lower than for the Big Wheel or Gaming Machines. So if you used to play things like Big Wheel or Gaming Machine, play PP instead, which will give you a much better edge.

One PP means a 30 to 1 payout (here in Queensland), which is a very good return (and it is not uncommon that PP come into my hands several times within a short period).

What does this mean? It means if you can catch one PP within 30 hands, you win or at least get even (depending on where in the process you catch that PP). Remember it is very likely for you to get other types of Pairs within this 30 hands range also, which means you win "Free Spins" for that Perfect moment (does it sound like Jackpot with Gaming Machine? But remember, it is much easier to get PP than Jackpot, for the simple reason of much lower house edge).

What I do is simply set aside $300 every time for PP side bet, with $10 one hand, which allows me to play a maximum of 30 hands even if I lose every hand. If I catch a Perfect Pair within this range, I will: 1) either stop playing and pocket the money; 2) or continue playing, until I lose everything back, or reach my win or loss limit or time limit for my main BJ play, whichever is earlier. (Of course if you only want to play PP, you can back bet in someone else’ empty PP box, as long as there is only one box in action)

With one box play (no other players and you don't open a second box), PP seem to appear more often (I saw situations of 6-7 PP happen within roughly 20 hands when playing one box, that is a 6-7x30 return). I reckon the reason is cards are not so much spread out (when more than one box is opened, you need more luck for your box to get that PP). This is strictly my personal first-hand experience after numerous BJ plays, but if anyone out there can prove this theory, it will be fascinating.

Therefore, I play PP only under this condition. It is quite possible you win a Perfect Pairs or even more, or quite a few other Pairs to equal a Perfect Pairs, within your budget (30 hands play). Of course, if you stop there, you guarantee that you win and lock in the profit.

However, I continue playing even I catch a PP. The reason is it is not very unusual to see many PP happen close to one another, and you are actually using the money you win with the initial PP to gain maximum profits, which can be really rewarding. If you win, you win big. If you lose, you lose what you have won, or in the worst case, you lose your original budget (limited to 30 hands play) - no more than that.

So if you chicken out with the first PP, the consequence could be that your win will not cover your possible losses in your future play.

I have yet another strategy which I will not try until I have big enough bankroll for consistent play. That is: say you set aside $300 with $10 each hand for PP, if you are so unlucky as to lose all those $300, you begin to double your bet ($20 each hand with a $600 loss limit) for another 30 hands. If you win in the beginning of this second round, you win back everything you lose in the first round plus profits. If you win towards the end of this second round, you are still slightly better off than you stop at the first round. If you are lucky enough to catch a couple of PP or even coloured pairs in the second round, you win big. This is to apply the Martingale betting system to the PP play, which we will never use for normal BJ play.

I know people would ask: what if you lose everything (both rounds)? Well, obviously you end up losing $900, instead of $300 if only playing one round. But my experience tells me that it is very unlikely you lose everything (remember you are allowing yourself at least 60 hands, you are playing with one box only and other types of Pairs will give you some “Free Spins” or even contribute to your final profits). You are going to catch at least one PP somewhere along the way plus other pairs. Even one night you lose everything, most of time you will win and cover all your losses of that night, plus profits. Although I haven't actually played this way, I kept recording what occurred to me for PP play (when I was watching instead of playing it), which proves this theory works. In the long run, you are more likely to be a winner.

If you like, you can use a very small amount of money to give it a test with the above mentioned strategy to see if it works. I believe this is a worth-trying strategy here in Queensland, but not sure about Sydney (Star City) or Melbourne (Crown). If they only pay 25 to 1 for PP, the house edge will be higher.

Also, it is better to play PP with CSMs, not shoe games, as the more cards are removed from the shoe, the lower chance you will catch a pair. The more decks in the machine, the more edge you have in playing PP.

So to sum it up:

1) Play PP when there is only one box.
2) Play with CSMs only.
3) Play higher deck games (at least 6 decks)
3) Use Martingale betting (as example above) only once. (Do not risk too much money while giving yourself one more chance)
4) Set a win & loss limit plus a time limit and stop when any of them comes. Stick to it.
5) Be consistent. Get enough money ready to continue playing this way for at least 7 times consecutively (on 7 separate days), and you will see the result (if only 1 or 2 times, luck plays a major role). Don’t spend all your money in one shot.
6) When you win a PP anywhere in the process, you have two options: either stop playing or continue. I prefer the aggressive option, but you can make your own choice.

That’s all about how I play PP and the reasoning behind it.

I would like to see debate about this, but I will appreciate reasoning, not assertion.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#2
We have PP in the UK - everywhere I have played has. It's been discussed within the forum on occasions, although all of the APs here won't touch it due to it's high HE - around eleven times that of the main bet in a six deck shoe, and over twice that of the 37 notched wheel of fortune.

One of the theoretical questions has been, is there a point when counting cards that that the count will be so high, the probability of pulling a pair, matched coloured pair or perfect pair becomes such that the odds are in favour of making this side bet? With a highcount there will be an excess of face cards and tens/aces left to play so in theory a greater chance of pulling a pair of jacks etc etc. Also, with a greater chance of pulling a 20 or BJ, does that justify making a smaller side bet covered by the increased main bet made in line with the count?

I think the answer is yes, although the count would have to be so high the frequency of seeing it would be minute. There is the dichotomy that the edge on the side bet reduces as more decks are in play, but then the frequency of seeing the count that justifies making the bet reduces as well.

If you're playing PPs in a game serviced with a CSM, then there will be no high count as such, and so no increased edge in the main bet to offset the edge in the side bet. The continuous shuffling effect will, in theory, increase the possibilities of pairs popping out as cards are recycled though, and it would be interesting to see what a computer simulation throws up and if, and by how much, the edge on the side bet reduces.

I've read through your post twice and, correct me if I'm mistaken, it looks as if you are applying a progression system of sorts. If you accept that progressions have a nil effect on the HE (you should, they do), then you'll continue to play against a pretty hefty HE, less the continuous shuffling effect. If you add the two HEs together, you're playing a game with a combined HE of c6.3%. Compare this to three card poker where the combined HE is around c5.7%. CSM dealt BJ is the better of the two games, as it's possible to lose around 11/12ths of the HE by just avoiding the side bet, whereas in 3CP it would be around 5/12ths. Perhaps you ought to consider applying your progression at the 3CP table?

I never make the bet myself, although it's fascinating how often people do (seem to) get paid on the 10-1 and 30-1 odds whenever I play for a couple of hours or so.

Good luck.
 

garygo

Active Member
#3
Thank you for your reply Newb99.

I learnt from online sources that theoretically the HE of PP is about 5% (6-deck, 30 to 1 payout, CSMs). But according to my own first hand experience, it doesn't seem to be that high. Within 30-60 hands range with progression betting, it is very likely you catch at least one PP plus other pairs along the way to make you a possible winner. PP do appear often here in Queensland casinos and the payout is 30 to 1 (I believe this is the highest available).

But like I said, use the progression betting once at a time to control the risk. My goal is to win more times than lose in the long run, not to win every time. (I will be interested to see computer simulation on this betting strategy and also test my One Box theory)

Personally I don't think card counting works for PP. Either the count is high or low, it does not determine your cards will likely come out a pair, does it? There are simply too many possibilities, and compared to the very strict and accurate match of FIRST two cards, high-low card counting is way too rough and even irrelevant.

Also, I do not agree with your theory of "increased edge in the main bet to offset the edge in the side bet". They are two totally separate things. You bet on PP not because the edge in the main bet is high, but PP itself is worth playing (if it is not, you never play it, unless you just want to try your luck). A totally independent bet.

Anyway, I am only concerned about CSMs as I think PP is worth playing only with CSMs, not shoe games. I've said the reason in my main post (more cards removed from the shoe, more HE)
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#4
The bets are indeed totally independent, but I was suggesting using the advantageous edge bet of one to offset the bet of the other (returns wise).

If you were applying, say, a 1-12 betting ramp, at a very high count you'd be betting 12 units rather than just 1 unit as it is prudent to do when playing a CSM (flat betting). So the win rate on the higher count, with the higher bet, would go some way to covering the costs of the high edge on the side bet, ie at TC+"x", you'd bet 12 units on the main hand and 1 unit on the side bet. You could even bet max minus one and one unit on the PP when the count hit the threshold (whatever it might be) so the amount bet remained at 12 - but this would reduce the EV a tad.

As to the deck composition, you could go the other way and look for a very negative count where there would be an excess of 2,3,4,5,6, but I think it would have to be so low the combined edge on the two bets would be pretty abysmal, and probably close to 9%. Perhaps the answer would be to develop a revised count, or have a team of players keeping the count on specifc card types. (jacks, queens etc). On a signal every player at the table could put out bets on the perfect pairs in addition to the usual betting ramp from counting.

With the high house edge on the side bet, and a neg EV on the main game, I think your losses will eventually outstrip your winnings - the maths suggest so, even though at present you may be up on the deal. I've got my edge figures from the Wizard of Odds web site, and Mr Shackleton's calculations are noted to be pretty sound. If your results are different, it's probably solely down to variance and a relatively small (statistically speaking) sample size.
 

garygo

Active Member
#5
newb99 said:
So the win rate on the higher count, with the higher bet, would go some way to covering the costs of the high edge on the side bet
Like I said the side bet has nothing to do with the count on the main bet. I understand that you hold the HE is very high on the PP side bet, if so, you just never play it. Simply play the main bet through card counting. There is no point "offsetting" the gains from the main bet with the losses from PP bet - why should we sacrifice our hard-earned chips with card-counting just to try the luck on PP?

I play PP simply because I believe I will be a winner in the long run using my afore-mentioned strategy. I can even back bet PP in someone else' box without playing the main bet, as long as there is only one box open.

newb99 said:
As to the deck composition, you could go the other way and look for a very negative count where there would be an excess of 2,3,4,5,6, but I think it would have to be so low the combined edge on the two bets would be pretty abysmal, and probably close to 9%. Perhaps the answer would be to develop a revised count, or have a team of players keeping the count on specifc card types. (jacks, queens etc).
I doubt that card counting will ever work for PP bet. How are we going to ensure cards will come out as pairs which precisely arrive at your box and they will be exactly the first two cards dealt to you? How are we going to decide the accurate ORDER they will be dealt to you as pairs, let alone Perfect Pairs?

Of course, if we know there is an excess of cards in the SAME VALUE (for example, through card counting we know there are 10 ACEs or 10 Kings left in the shoe, or the combination of both), there will be a much higher chance for us to catch a pair. But I doubt this happens often enough to justify a count.

At last, I do want to see any statistical proof of my ONE BOX hypothesis, which is very important for playing PP with CSMs if proved. I can well be wrong about this hypothesis.
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#6
garygo said:
. . . why should we sacrifice our hard-earned chips with card-counting just to try the luck on PP?
Quite. That was just a thought if you accept that at some stage, at a high count, it may be mathematically advantageous to play the PP side bet due to the probabilities of getting a result and the payback. I don't know for a fact that is the case, and bearing in mind the HE on PPs there may never be a point at which it is advantageous to do this.

I doubt that card counting will ever work for PP bet. How are we going to ensure cards will come out as pairs which precisely arrive at your box and they will be exactly the first two cards dealt to you? How are we going to decide the accurate ORDER they will be dealt to you as pairs, let alone Perfect Pairs?
You can't. It's a probability call to be made based on the deck composition, the odds and the return. I agree that the Hi-Lo count probably won't fit the bill.

As for "luck", an abstract concept and something that I don't tend to rely on too much. But if it works for you great.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#7
Some Nums

Perfect Pairs HE =3.37%

Pay Table — 8 decks
Hand ... Pays... Combintions... Probability... Retun
Perfect pair ... 30... 1456 ... 0.016867... 0.506024
Colored pair... 10... 1664 ... 0.019277... 0.192771
Red/black pair... 5... 3328 ... 0.038554... 0.192771
Non-pair ... -1... 79872... 0.925301... -0.925301
Total ... 86320... 1... -0.033735
 
#9
PP at crown

Hi there

Thank you newb99 for such a detailed analysis of this side bet.

Having never played PP or ever gone near a CSM (mahogany room at Crown doesnt have them) I cannot claim to be an expert on PP with or without CSM. I have always viewed it as another form of roulette (to be avoided).

I have however spent quite a few hours on the 300-10,000 table in the private room to the right of the mahog room where there are two tables. On big gambling nights eg Derby day after midnight you will see real money thrown around (esp on bacc) but I digress.

I was sitting next to this guy who has about $250,000 in 5000 chips in front of him and countless plaques in his coat pocket. He is playing the maximum $500 bet on perfect pairs.

At crown a PP will pay 25/1 ie $12,500, CP 12/1 and MP 6/1

In 2 hours, he never got one PP. I dont think he even got more than one coloured pair either.

My estimation was he invested more than 100K on this side bet alone and got about 10K back.

In the break his only comment about the PP bet was "what a f**king disaster".

I assessed him as an novice level counter who bet very aggressively when the TC was high. Its interesting that the casino staff do not give any heat in this private room even to players going from 200 bets to 10,000. They dont bat an eyelid.

In summary - play PP if you are nuts.
 
#10
You can do it! maybe

I had the "Perfect Pair Epiphany" several months ago, talked about it privately to a select few. It is definitely possible to make $$ with, but it is not easy.

For every denomination eliminated from the deck (7s for example), the probability (odds) of getting a pair in another denomination increases. If you removed all of the 7s, 8s, and 9s from a shoe, then the probability of being dealt a pair of 6s is higher. Now, to track this you need to be either keeping 13 different side counts, or not counting cards in the traditional way and just flat betting and running your side count. Without tracking suits also, you are just tracking pair probability (say that ten times fast...) and not PP probability.

Another way to gain an advantage over "normal" conditions on PP is to track suits. Now you have 4 separate counts going and you are waiting for a significant depletion of at least one suit before the probability rises of a PP. Note that the probability of pulling a regular pair will fall when the probability of a PP is higher because of card depletion. If you took out all of the hearts in a shoe, it would be harder to get a pair of 3s since xxx 3s are missing, but if you do get a pair of 3s there is a higher probability that they will be a matched set since there are less 3s that don't match left in the shoe. This may be a little easier to keep track of in most peoples' mind.

The easiest tracking is just red/black, but I am not sure how effective it would be. If you have a shortage of red, then you have a higher concentration of black and a higher probability of getting a spade or club, but the probability of them being a pair doesn't really become advantageous without an additional count of at least one denomination.

My suggestion on PP would be to use a team to beat it, 3 people would be great if you could get away with it. I am not going to go into any more detail on that here, but since it involves suit, color and denomination tracking you can probably figure it out.

Ok, somebody run sims on this based on a 6 deck shoe game if they have the brains and time. I have NO idea of where the indexes are on this and what the bets should be like, just how to REDUCE the initial house advantage of this side bet, and have NO idea if there is a probability of GAINING an advantage over the house using any of this.

 
#11
One casino I played at has the lucky ladies side game. Basically the payouts start if you have any 20 and go up to suited queens, with suited and non-suited picture cards in between.

Only problem is it is literally a crapshoot because the casino in question uses CSM; however, if a shoe game was used it be pretty probable to predict when the pairs would come...the question becomes do you play a 2nd or 3rd box or not?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
Even with decent penetration the side bet is a waste of time. The opportunities are very rare and not that profitable. Surely there must be better opportunities available in these casinos.

-Sonny-
 
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