My strategy...suggestions please

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itzmemike

New Member
#1
#1
alright i do not play blackjack much and was thinking about it alot during class today. but anyways i developed this strategy that i thought might work but i am not sure what the chances are of losing (x) amount of hands in a row at the casino and i wasnt sure what most casino limits were.

heres how it works, you have a $1200 bankroll and if lose 5 hands in a row your basically done. but i wasnt sure how often you lose 5 hands in a row cause ive never played at a casino thats where you guys come into play.

so i bet 25 for every bet even if i win i keep betting 25 until i lose
then it basically goes like this
25 if i lose then go to(x)
75 x
150 x
300 x
600 x

and if you win at any time during those hands you reset at 25. i know its pretty risky but you come up 50 bucks every time your hand wins and thats when you start over at 25.

ideas?
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
itzmemike said:
i wasnt sure how often you lose 5 hands in a row cause ive never played at a casino thats where you guys come into play.
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Probability of winning: ~43%
Probability of losing: ~49%
Probability of pushing: ~6%

So 0.49^6 = 0.0283 ... about 1 time in 35, or after 20 minutes of play.

itzmemike said:
ideas?
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This is similar to the Martingale Progression. You will make a small amount of money most of the time, and lose your entire bankroll occasionally.

It's a sucker's bet.
 
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Shwam

Active Member
#4
#4
Original poster: What happens when you lose 10 bets in a row and now you're always betting the table maximum in an attempt to recover, but losing more of those bets than winning?
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
itzmemike said:
so i guess its a bad idea
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Its a very bad idea, but its an idea almost everyone has thought of at some point. Don't be too discouraged,but don't try to reinvent the wheel, either.
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
itzmemike said:
so how do i win!?!?!?
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In a very broad overview, you win by putting more money down when you have the advantage, and less money down when you have a disadvantage.

Sonny's links explain how to tell when you have the advantage, and how much you need to increase your bet to offset the disadvantage that you play through.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
itzmemike said:
so how do i win!?!?!?
Click to expand...

It starts with a good bit of studying,lots of practice,discipline and hard work.
Playing BJ is a very tough way to make an easy living. In all honesty,if I had worked in MickeyD's all the hours I've put into my BJ game,I'd be better off than I've done thus far.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Originally Posted by shadroch
In all honesty,if I had worked in MickeyD's all the hours I've put into my BJ game,I'd be better off than I've done thus far.
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Harman said:
That's cos you're sh*t at card counting
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think again sir Harman. you might be surprised. a lot depends on the realities that any given person faces.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Harman said:
That's cos you're sh*t at card counting
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I have no idea why you would think that,but go right ahead. I can count down two decks in under 60 seconds,perhaps make one mistake every ten times thru. If you do better,good for you.

Had I chose to work at MickeyDs fulltime instead of spending six years getting my University degrees,I'd have been way ahead moneywise for perhaps the irst ten years out of HS. Then the gap would have disappeared and I would now be well behind. Why would you think getting an education in BJ is any different?
Believe what you will,but be certain you aren't deluding yourself.
Playing BJ is a very difficult way to earn an easy living.
 
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