my voodoo system... anybody interested?

[ohbehave]

I also count but I've done better both at the casino and on blackjack trainers with this system, however my experience is somewhat limited in live play. Would 5 or 10 of you be interested in not just saying it doesn't work but put it to the test and run a thousand hands on any online trainer you choose (use a realistic trainer... i.e. not one that shuffles after each hand).

Its a variation of Labouchere, the elimination system. If your not familiar with Labouchere check http://www.ace-ten.com/strategy/intermediate/effective/ Here are the specifics.

approximately 1000 hands, replenish BR if necessary
use strict basic strategy only, 6D, DA2, DAS, NRA, NS
starting BR $1000
$5 units
starting series of numbers is 1,2,3,4

the goal is to complete each series however I've put in bailout limits so some series will not be completed

THE RULES
1) maximum bet is 15 units ($75)
2) if you reach max bet, win or lose, your next bet must start a new series
3) if you lose 3 consecutive hands you must start a new series

Record your net win or loss after approximately 1000 hands. I know its not statistically significant but its a start without being overly burdensome. Should only take a couple of hours to complete the trial.

 

[Sonny]

The links in the sticky thread at the top of this forum will help you understand what kind of results to expect from a system like this. Here is a good one to start with:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/betting_systems_cancellation_progression.htm

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

Fair enough. I'm not claiming this is a winning strategy. I totally agree that the Labouchere system carried out to the letter will end in the loss of just about any size bankroll. I am though trying to accumulate enough hands played to try to have something statistically significant in regards to this variation.

I'm not aware of a simulator that can replicate this strategy and as far as I know no one has done it exactly as I've outlined. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work, end of story.

C'mon guys. This is the voodoo forum. Lets have some fun. 10 of you try it out and post your results. I'm working on mine.

 

[ohbehave]

Just to be clear. Your inital bet at the beginning of a new series will be $25 (1+4=5 units). Max initial bet allowed in any series is $75.

Doubles and splits do not affect the amount bet on the following hand and do not count toward max bet, you are only concerned about your initial bet as far as the series is concerned.

 

[ohbehave]

1000 hand results

Here are the results from 1039 practice hands performed today:

I used the software located at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com

Beginning bankroll...............$1000
Ending bankroll...................$2639
Net profit..........................$1639

Profit per hand....................$1.58
Average bet......................$33.20
ROI per hand......................4.76%

Lowest bankroll.........approx. $470 (incorrect-see edit below)
# times bankroll replenished........0

220 series performed
165 series completed
55 series not completed
Series completed percentage...75%

These results are consistent with both previous practice hands performed, of which I have logged several thousand, and approximately 25 hours of live casino action which included both $1 and $5 unit play in which I have quadrupled my initial bankroll.

I have been reluctant to continue live casino play because I'm still not sure this strategy is valid for the long term.

Obviously, the number of practice hands and number of casino hours are not large enough to satisfy most players that this is a valid strategy, however it may lend some credence to further study of the system.

I urge all of you to do the same as I've done and report your results. I think this will be the quickest way to reach a valid sample size.

I will be glad to answer any questions concerning how to play the strategy.

Edit: The bankroll actually never fell below $1000. The reason for the $470 lowest bankroll is because several times I restarted the software and kept a running tally of the profit even though I did not ever require replenishing the bankroll. Once after a restart of the software the roll dropped to about $470. However, if I had never restarted the software it would have never fallen below the initial $1000 amount.

 

[Sonny]

I totally agree that the Labouchere system carried out to the letter will end in the loss of just about any size bankroll. I am though trying to accumulate enough hands played to try to have something statistically significant in regards to this variation.

Why would this variation be any different? The house edge is still the same, right? You haven't changed anything.

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

I'll try to answer your question as best I can but I've struggled with it myself. In theory, with an infinite bankroll the Labouchere system works.

A completed series, unless there are doubles and/or splits gone bad, will result in a net increase in units.

So, the problem comes when either 1) the series is not completed, or 2) the bankroll is depleted due to the bet requirement becoming too high.

What I've done is limit the betting requirement so to eliminate 2 problems.
1) depleting the bankroll, and
2) the system does not get so complicated that it cannot be carried out in the casino

Now, next issue. How does it still come out ahead. I don't totally know, nor can I yet say it will in the long run. But...

With this system the goal is to COMPLETE THE SERIES. The goal is NOT to win an individual hand. I cannot stress those 2 statements enough.

You have several opportunities in each series to complete it. You do not have to win every hand. This is paramount. You cannot get focused on individual hands. COMPLETE THE SERIES or end it only after 3 consecutive losses or when max bet is reached.

Two observations are that the max bet is only rarely reached (maybe 3 or 4 times out of that 1000 hand trial) and that a completed series percentage of around 75% is typical, not extraordinary. If your completed series percentage drops in the 60% range you will be losing a lot of money. Sometimes that happens, but so do completed series of 90% in which case you are killing.

You can win when the count is low or high. But as long as you achieve a win rate of approximately 41-42% you will be making money. Fortunately that is the typical win rate of a BS player.

Now, having said all that, if your still with me..........

Are you willing to run 1000 hands?

Try this, if you will... Run 1000 hands with your best counting method and a $5 unit. Then run 1000 hands with the system I've outlined and post your results.

 

[sagefr0g]

Why would this variation be any different? The house edge is still the same, right? You haven't changed anything.

-Sonny-

sensible question.
here's another question maybe not so sensible.
there's supposed to be these progressions, maybe Oscar's Grind would be an example. but anyway some of these progressions you end up having small wins say 85% of the time and then big busts 15%. so big it's ruinous sort of thing.
but the question is what is it about such a progression that it can skew the the number of win sessions to be 85% or so instead of the maybe 42% expected for a flat better? why does that even happen, or whats the mechanics underlying such skewedness?

 

[Sonny]

but the question is what is it about such a progression that it can skew the the number of win sessions to be 85% or so instead of the maybe 42% expected for a flat better?

It’s based on the probability of events. If you flat bet, you have to win more hands than you lose in order to make a profit. When you Martingale, you only need to win the last hand in order to make a profit. It doesn’t matter how many hands you lose as long as you win that last one. The probability of losing many hands in a row is small so you are very likely to hit a win before you bust out. That’s why a progression player will make a profit most of the time. The problem is that he will eventually hit those “impossible” losing streaks that bust him. All of these streaks are built into the house advantage so no matter what progression system you use, you will run into a streak that destroys it.

-Sonny-

 

[Sonny]

In theory, with an infinite bankroll the Labouchere system works.

Only for a finite time period. If you play for an infinite time you will eventually hit an infinite losing streak and go broke.

In the real world you have a finite bankroll and the house has the advantage. If you keep playing you will end up with no bankroll. It doesn’t matter how you randomly vary your bets. It doesn’t matter how you modify a progression system. It will always fail because the house has the advantage. Until you fix that problem you will not have a winning system. This is a fact. There are dozens of articles above that give conclusive proof of this. The end result is already known and has been for centuries. You are more than welcome to share your personal results and experiences, but we can already tell you how it will end. Even though your system sounds like a lot of fun to use, it’s very important that you understand it is not a winning system.

I don't want to discourage you from posting, I just want to make sure that you have realistic expectations.

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

I'm not sure why you are posting if your only point is to say 'it will not work, you will lose.'

One point... an infinite winning streak is just as likely as an infinite losing streak. But lets be honest neither will happen.

I've given you a lot of information with sound statistics. I didn't make up any of this. The only thing I don't have is enough data. Thats what I'm trying to achieve.

Will you participate or are you afraid of the results? I'm not, I don't care if you toast me with counting. That would be great actually. I can't seem to get counting to work well.

Counting is like flat terrain with intermittent high mountains and steep cliffs. My system is like rolling hills with an occasional mountain or cliff.

 

[Sonny]

I'm not sure why you are posting if your only point is to say 'it will not work, you will lose.'

I'm posting because, based on your previous posts, you aren't sure if this system will work and you want to find out. I'm trying to save you a lot of time and effort.

Will you participate or are you afraid of the results?

I'm not afraid at all. As I said, I already know exactly what the results will be. This information has been known for centuries and is available right at the top of this forum. I choose not to participate because I don't see the point in testing something when the defects are obvious and the results are already known. I don’t understand what this test is supposed to achieve.

Again, I’m not trying to be rude I’m just being honest with you. Feel free to continue posting your result if you like. I just think you could be doing something better with your time.

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

So... theres a voodoo forum here but one or two posters see it as their job to squash any real discussion of alternative possibilities. I've been reading the posts in other voodoo threads.

A large part of the discussion among AP players concerns preservation of bankroll, risk of ruin, etc. I would suspect you would agree that many, maybe the majority, of AP players knowingly play with a ROR higher than they should. I would also suspect that a large percentage of AP players eventually go bust. (You say that if I continue this strategy I will eventually do the same)

I see little difference in what your posts say regarding voodoo as compared to what probably happens to the majority of AP players.

It would be interesting if you would actually run my 1000 hand challenge rather than make posts that are of little value. But that is your choice.

See you at the tables. Ciao

 

[Sonny]

So... theres a voodoo forum here but one or two posters see it as their job to squash any real discussion of alternative possibilities.

Not at all. In fact, I’ve made several posts in support of progression systems in certain situations. I've also made hundreds of posts discussing alternative methods of beating blackjack. I'm not trying to squash discussion. I’m only trying to squash the idea that you can get an advantage over the house by using a progression system. That is simply not the case and it can be a very costly mistake. I have no problem with people discussing progression systems as long as they have realistic expectations.

I see little difference in what your posts say regarding voodoo as compared to what probably happens to the majority of AP players.

The big difference is that an AP knows what his chances are before he starts playing. He knows that he has, say, a 5% chance of going broke and he decides to take that chance. He understands the risk and has realistic expectations of his chances for success. Most progression players do not know that they have a 100% risk of ruin. Some even think that they are using a winning system. Those are not realistic expectations. I don’t want people reading these posts and getting the impression that these systems are safe and that players will make money by using them. That is not true and it can be a very disastrous.

It would be interesting if you would actually run my 1000 hand challenge rather than make posts that are of little value. But that is your choice.

You asked a question. I answered your question. I’m sorry that you didn’t find the answer helpful. I’m sorry that you didn’t find all the articles that I mentioned helpful either. I thought you were looking for answers. I guess I don’t understand what you’re looking for.

A 1000 hand challenge is pointless. Why not just have a 10 hand challenge? Why bother testing the system at all if the results are not going to be reliable? I don’t understand the point. We already know that the house has the advantage. You do not describe how your system overcomes that fact. The articles mentioned above explain how all progression systems cannot overcome it, even systems exactly like the one you suggest. That is the question that you need to think about before you start testing your system. Why would it work when every other system just like it doesn’t?

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g
but the question is what is it about such a progression that it can skew the the number of win sessions to be 85% or so instead of the maybe 42% expected for a flat better?

It’s based on the probability of events. If you flat bet, you have to win more hands than you lose in order to make a profit. When you Martingale, you only need to win the last hand in order to make a profit. It doesn’t matter how many hands you lose as long as you win that last one. The probability of losing many hands in a row is small so you are very likely to hit a win before you bust out. That’s why a progression player will make a profit most of the time. The problem is that he will eventually hit those “impossible” losing streaks that bust him. All of these streaks are built into the house advantage so no matter what progression system you use, you will run into a streak that destroys it.

-Sonny-

so that probability of events sort of thing is the graph and kinds of calculators in this link the kind of thing your referring too?
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=95636&postcount=23

so what i'm thinking is say you raise your unit size and just go after that one unit. you have a pretty good probability of gaining that unit. or in other words maybe you'll succeed circa 85% of the time or so.
problem is you might run into that 15% of the time where you hit a losing streak that substantially drains your bankroll.
so i think i realize the problem is essentially a big draining loss waiting in the wings sooner or later.
then one might be tempted to try and use a stop loss to limit that big draining loss (which you never really know when it's comming).
problem with that would be that sooner or later your gonna want to play again. so the stop loss becomes meaningless if your going to play again.
too me i guess you could say well maybe try such a tact. maybe with a stop loss, but then realize the danger of forging ahead. maybe decide to change tactics and actually use a genuine AP tactic to either hold your ground or regain ground.

 

[Sonny]

so that probability of events sort of thing is the graph and kinds of calculators in this link the kind of thing your referring too?
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=95636&postcount=23

Right. The distribution of wins and losses becomes very different when you use a progression system. As you said, it becomes skewed towards winning sessions (see below). That’s what gives people false confidence in these systems. If you multiply the frequencies of the winning and losing sessions by their associated win/loss amounts then you will see that the final result is equal to the house edge. It's like playing with a piece of clay - you can mold it into any shape you want but it's still the same amount of clay. A progression player can redistribute his wins and losses however he wants but it's still a -EV game.

so the stop loss becomes meaningless if your going to play again.

Yup. All it does is turn a potential big loss into a bunch of smaller losses that add up to the same amount.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

....
Yup. All it does is turn a potential big loss into a bunch of smaller losses that add up to the same amount.

-Sonny-

yeah thats at least one of the problems with progressions.
i guess that has to do with the law of large numbers, (what ever that is) how many times can you do something stupid inside the domain of the law of large numbers before there is enough of those actions to become statistically significant?
thing about the idea of progressions (or maybe just the idea of reaching some goal) is that it can be a very tempting prospect.
i mean seems as if an AP could use a progression as a sort of a tool (albeit a risky one). maybe a scalpel sort of an attempted attack sort of thing. a limited surgical strike lol. if it works maybe the AP finds himself way ahead of the game plan. if it doesn't, well he's got his work cut out for himself.
thing is though, 85% chance of success seems not so bad if followed up by a disciplined stretch of play. say maybe you make such an attempt inside of an understood advantage situation where your prospects of success might be enhanced along with the 85% chance of success.

 

[ohbehave]

One 1000 hand challenge might be meaningless but 50 1000 hand challenges wouldn't be. Thats what I was after.

Just starting small by asking for 5 or 10 people to participate. I guess no one is interested in a fun challenge.

All I was after was to have a little fun with this and see what the results would be when several people actually did this instead of looking at a bunch of statistics.

 

[Sonny]

One 1000 hand challenge might be meaningless but 50 1000 hand challenges wouldn't be.

Even 50 challenges would still be meaningless. You would need at least 400,000 challenges to have a reasonably accurate idea of how the system will perform. It's going to be tough to find 400,000 people willing to use a progression system so I would suggest using simulation software to test it. The software will probably take around 10-20 minutes to play that many hands, so you've already saved yourself years worth of testing. If you're really serious about testing these systems then a little research will save you decades of manual playing. It will also give you a chance to test more than one variation in your lifetime.

I know that the statistics aren't as fun as actually playing, but I suspect that after the first billion hours of play (and looking at another billion hours to come) the playing will start to lose its luster. I think you'll enjoy the almost immediate gratification of the statistical approach much more. It will also give you a better understanding of exactly what is happening with different systems so that you can address the problems directly instead of trying different variations randomly.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

So... theres a voodoo forum here but one or two posters see it as their job to squash any real discussion of alternative possibilities. ...

i'm sorry if i was unwittingly hijacking your thread. i do like discussing this stuff to a certain degree however personally i don't see much point of making the effort to sim your progression. thing is i think you know it's pretty much doomed for failior if you get out of the short run.
not sure how it would do in the short run.
i did sim a series of if your up one unit you quit and then try again sort of progression. 3,000 trials over 71,317 rounds. i could summarize those results if that would be of interest.