Need RoR and hourly rate

[Octoberatom]

Hi, I have been lurking these boards for a few years now, but this is my first post.

I was hoping someone could help me figure out how to minimize my RoR in the strategy I want to use. I use a Hi/Lo count and have a 200 unit bankroll. The game I play has the following rules:

8 decks ~75-80% penetration
S17
DA2
DAS
Split up to 4 times
No resplit of aces
Late surrender

I will be wonging in at +2 and wonging out at +1. I wasn't sure what kind of a spread I should use to minimize my RoR. I was thinking 1 unit at +2, 2u at +3, 3u at +4, and 4 u at +5. Suggestions to this strategy is appreciated.

-October

 

[BrianCP]

Good rules but a ton of decks. 1-4 will not cut it for 8 decks.....you have to increase your spread by a lot. This will increase your RoR, but you might be playing a slightly worse than break even game by only spreading 1-4. Apparently, 1-14 or 1-16 is recommended for a reasonable win rate for 6 decks, so maybe a spread as high as 1-20 would be necessary. Maybe you should try to find a better game.....the Pen is good and the rules are nice at least.

Also, that 200 unit bankroll had better be very strictly defined as refillable. That is far short of a good size for a fixed bankroll. Determine how much you can add to it over what time periods. If you lose it, you don't play until you can refill it at the pre set time. If you have money in it still by the time your refill date comes, put that money in anyways.


As far as RoR, with a 200 unit bankroll, you are likely to double it before losing it about 75% of the time according to QFIT's goal calculator. That means an RoR of %25. Double it 3/4, lose it 1/4. Can you stand to wager 100 units on only 75%? Long run, that is what you are doing.

 

[Southpaw]

Good rules but a ton of decks. 1-4 will not cut it for 8 decks.....you have to increase your spread by a lot. This will increase your RoR, but you might be playing a slightly worse than break even game by only spreading 1-4. Apparently, 1-14 or 1-16 is recommended for a reasonable win rate for 6 decks, so maybe a spread as high as 1-20 would be necessary. Maybe you should try to find a better game.....the Pen is good and the rules are nice at least.

Also, that 200 unit bankroll had better be very strictly defined as refillable. That is far short of a good size for a fixed bankroll. Determine how much you can add to it over what time periods. If you lose it, you don't play until you can refill it at the pre set time. If you have money in it still by the time your refill date comes, put that money in anyways.


As far as RoR, with a 200 unit bankroll, you are likely to double it before losing it about 75% of the time according to QFIT's goal calculator. That means an RoR of %25. Double it 3/4, lose it 1/4. Can you stand to wager 100 units on only 75%? Long run, that is what you are doing.

If he follows his backcounting approach, he needn't spread at all. 1-4 is more than sufficient for this approach.

I am not a backcounter, but I hope that our friend has a good act and a big, bustling casino to be able to get away with this kind of flagrant backcounting.

Hit & Run my friend,

Spaw

 

[BrianCP]

If he follows his backcounting approach, he needn't spread at all. 1-4 is more than sufficient for this approach.

I am not a backcounter, but I hope that our friend has a good act and a big, bustling casino to be able to get away with this kind of flagrant backcounting.

Hit & Run my friend,

Spaw

And once again I messed up. I totally forgot about the wonging in any non positive situation....I am stupiding up this place right now. Thanks for correcting me....again......twice in 10 minutes.

 

[Octoberatom]

If he follows his backcounting approach, he needn't spread at all. 1-4 is more than sufficient for this approach.

I am not a backcounter, but I hope that our friend has a good act and a big, bustling casino to be able to get away with this kind of flagrant backcounting.

Hit & Run my friend,

Spaw

It is a fairly large casino with multiple pits, but if a 1-4 spread is too obvious, could I flatbet 2 units, or would this still be obvious and I should just stick with 1 unit bets? Also, if betting 2 units is fine, what would this do to my RoR? I want to keep this as low as I can because my bankroll is fixed.

-October

 

[MangoJ]

What is the difference between flatbetting 1 unit and flatbetting 2 units ? The pit doesn't know what your unit size is.

 

[Southpaw]

It is a fairly large casino with multiple pits, but if a 1-4 spread is too obvious, could I flatbet 2 units, or would this still be obvious and I should just stick with 1 unit bets? Also, if betting 2 units is fine, what would this do to my RoR? I want to keep this as low as I can because my bankroll is fixed.

-October

I don't think they'll sweat the 1-4 spread. What I think is going to be obvious is that you are probably going to jumping around from table to table like you have ants in your pants. When you go up to the table, I don't recommend sitting down. Make it seem as if you're about to leave at any second, as you probably will need to to follow this backcounting strategy.

Spaw

 

[FLASH1296]

How are you defining your unit ?
$10 ? $25 ?
How much of an hourly [cash] win expectation do you need to continue playing ?

 

[Thunder]

Don't do it

Unless this store has multiple open tables, you're going to be carrying a huge red flag and spending a LOT of time backcounting if you're waiting for +2 before you enter. Be prepared to wait hours even. With a 1-4 spread, you can still safely profit by entering at a +1 count (you'd have an edge at this point) and leaving at a -1 count assuming one unit is $10 for you.

 

[Octoberatom]

How are you defining your unit ?
$10 ? $25 ?
How much of an hourly [cash] win expectation do you need to continue playing ?

Well I was planning on having a $25 unit, but I can change that if needed. I don't need to maintain a certain hourly win expectation. My main concern is my RoR. If I'm winning just a couple bucks an hour that's fine, as long as there's low risk of losing my whole bankroll.

 

[Octoberatom]

I don't think they'll sweat the 1-4 spread. What I think is going to be obvious is that you are probably going to jumping around from table to table like you have ants in your pants. When you go up to the table, I don't recommend sitting down. Make it seem as if you're about to leave at any second, as you probably will need to to follow this backcounting strategy.

Spaw

Ok so if jumping around will get too much attention, would it be better to start at the beginning of a shoe and then wong out if the count gets -1? And if I do that, what kind of a bet spread would I need in that case?

 

[Southpaw]

Ok so if jumping around will get too much attention, would it be better to start at the beginning of a shoe and then wong out if the count gets -1? And if I do that, what kind of a bet spread would I need in that case?

Your backcounting strategy is certainly doable in larger casinos. I was just warning you, since you are new to the site that this strategy would really require you to be getting up and sitting down a lot. I think it probably requires a certain act. The attention you might get would probably require that you play short sessions.

If you enter at the shuffle, and wong at -1, it really is advisable to use a very large spread with this 8-deck game. I think it often taken for granted how much worse 8-deck games are than 6-deck games.

Spaw