neg counts to house edge

[golfnut101]

On a game where the house has a.7 adv, how much do you take off of that by not playing neg counts ? Or can that even be calculated ?

thnx

 

[sagefr0g]

On a game where the house has a.7 adv, how much do you take off of that by not playing neg counts ? Or can that even be calculated ?

thnx

there are some tables for frequency distributions of negative true counts and positive true counts and the expected values associated with those frequencies for various numbers of decks in Professional Blackjack by Wong. or you could run a simulation to determine these frequencies. from such frequencies you could determine the improvement in advantage.
you could run a play all simulation of the game in question and then run a simulation where you wong out of negative counts. compare the expected values of the two and that would give you what your looking for.
or you could use Sonny's bet spread spreadsheet put in zero units bet for tc's -1 and below and one unit bet for tc's -1 and below then compare the results. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=15578&postcount=6

 

[CasualPlayer]

I ran the very sim sagefr0g refers to back when I was first getting started.

In my sim. Wonging added .5 percent to my EV.

My sim was using KO and a spread with a higher ROR than most here use. So in theory more conservative play would yield an even higher advantage. I think. Math gurus feel free to jump in on that point.

Unfortunately the sim results are long since lost and I can't provide the exact wonging points I programmed in, etc.

HTH,
CP

 

[golfnut101]

ev

Hey casual

thnx for the reply. I am using same, KO preferred. If you are correct, adding
.5, with a solid spread(1-8 or 1-10) should make this game beatable. But, you definitely HAVE to exit, and possibly bc when possible.

thnx again

 

[Sonny]

Here are some results of different bet spreads from Schlesinger's charts in Chapter 10:

Play All:
1-8 = 0.7 units
1-10 = 0.9
1-12 = 1.09

Backcount:
1-8 = 1.48 units
1-10 = 1.68
1-12 = 1.87

The 1-8 player can more than double his EV simply by backcounting! Also, with a 400 unit bankroll the 1-8 Play All player has a 35% ROR while the 1-8 backcounter has a 6.8% ROR. Much better, huh? The above assumes: 6D H17 DAS LS 4.5/6 pen, HiLo with Ill18 and Fab 4.

-Sonny-

 

[golfnut101]

backcounting

hey Sonny

Does this mean strictly bc only, and leaving on neg counts ? What if you bc, jump in on a good count, but remain for next shoe, leaving upon neg count, and then moving to another table ?

 

[golfnut101]

by the way

no hole card, no ls; is it still worth it ? Do not lose dd/splits on dealer bj though

 

[Sonny]

Does this mean strictly bc only, and leaving on neg counts ?

Right. You would enter the game at a TC of +1 and leave as soon as the count dropped below +1.

What if you bc, jump in on a good count, but remain for next shoe, leaving upon neg count, and then moving to another table ?

This is somewhat similar to Schlesinger's "White Rabbit" approach. It is still much better than the Play All approach. In general, try to avoid as many negative counts as possible. You may have to start playing a few shoes off the top, but any negative hand you avoid is money in your pocket.

no hole card, no ls; is it still worth it ?

Your overall advantage will not be as high but the improvements of backcounting will be similar. The most aggressive style of play will be the most worthwhile. In this case, it can also be much safer if you have a small bankroll.

-Sonny-

 

[CasualPlayer]

So the big lesson here is:

Bigger spread + Higher % of pos. counts played = Greater EV
(This is probably better expressed as a function but I am not math-y enough.)

I know; I'm restating the obvious. But it's worth restating. No?

Just remember that bigger spreads and backcounting increase your risk of heat, so don't dive in with these techniques too aggressively at your home base or anywhere else you don't want to get burned. Especially while you're new and developing your methods, etc.

Cheers,
CP

 

[sagefr0g]

So the big lesson here is:

Bigger spread + Higher % of pos. counts played = Greater EV
(This is probably better expressed as a function but I am not math-y enough.)

I know; I'm restating the obvious. But it's worth restating. No?

Just remember that bigger spreads and backcounting increase your risk of heat, so don't dive in with these techniques too aggressively at your home base or anywhere else you don't want to get burned. Especially while you're new and developing your methods, etc.

Cheers,
CP

sounds right to me.... one other aspect would be greater variance and negative fluctuation. hence the need to consider ROR and bankroll.