New card counter

[biz]

Hi guys,i'm new to blackjack and card counting,and i'm here to learn more from you.
It's about 1 month that i know what bj is,never played before this little time in my life and now after about 2 weeks of pratice i know perfectly basic strategy and i'm a novice card counter.
I use Hi-Lo method and i'm able to count 1 single deck - 2 cards in about 22-25 seconds...i know i have to do better but for a starting point i think it can be quite good....
I live at 5mins from 3 casinos and i have 5 in the range of 50kms from where i live.
i practice with real cards and with the simulator casino veritev5

Here most casinos plays 6 decks, s17, das , no surrender , no peek and only 1 card after ace split,blackjack pays 3:2 ofcourse.

I haven't a great availability of money becouse i'm a student but there are tablets at 10€ min. bet

How about variations of bets on TC?

example my standard bet it's 10€

tc 1 : 10€
tc 2 : ?
tc 3 : ?
tc 4 : ?
tc 5 : ?

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

 

[apex]

How about variations of bets on TC?

example my standard bet it's 10€

tc 1 : 10€
tc 2 : ?
tc 3 : ?
tc 4 : ?
tc 5 : ?

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

Your bet spread should be as much as you can get away with provided you can afford it. If your starting at 10 your top bet should be at least 80, 160 is better. You should have at least 6000 to "invest." Maybe more depending on your risk tolerance.


Other players don't affect you. It doesn't matter at all if other people make stupid plays. It is true that it changes the card the dealer gets, but you have no way of knowing if it will change it for better or worse. Lots of people use hindsight to "prove" a play was bad and you would have won otherwise, but that not the correct way to think about it. The next card has the same chance of being a 10(or whatever card you are thinking of) as every card left in the deck.

You should play with less players to get more hands in. If you are a good counter and have an edge on the casino you want to play as many hands as possible. A full table averages about 60 hands per hour, and 1 player averages 200.

 

[Southpaw]

Hi guys,i'm new to blackjack and card counting,and i'm here to learn more from you.
It's about 1 month that i know what bj is,never played before this little time in my life and now after about 2 weeks of pratice i know perfectly basic strategy and i'm a novice card counter.
I use Hi-Lo method and i'm able to count 1 single deck - 2 cards in about 22-25 seconds...i know i have to do better but for a starting point i think it can be quite good....
I live at 5mins from 3 casinos and i have 5 in the range of 50kms from where i live.
i practice with real cards and with the simulator casino veritev5

Here most casinos plays 6 decks, s17, das , no surrender , no peek and only 1 card after ace split,blackjack pays 3:2 ofcourse.

I haven't a great availability of money becouse i'm a student but there are tablets at 10€ min. bet

How about variations of bets on TC?

example my standard bet it's 10€

tc 1 : 10€
tc 2 : ?
tc 3 : ?
tc 4 : ?
tc 5 : ?

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

First of all, welcome to the site! This site a great learning resource.

About your speed for counting down a single-deck. IMO, there is absolutely no reason that you need to be able to count down a single-deck any faster than this. I am still new to the game myself, and maybe I have not yet played against (or observed) a real fast dealer yet, but being able to count down a single deck consistently at 22-23 seconds (level-two system), I always have a ton of spare time when observing a game or playing a game to count all of the cards. Back when I practiced a level-one system (as you do), I was able to count down a single-deck in 18-19 seconds, but IMO, the extra speed is really unnecessary. In fact, I never practice counting down a single-deck anymore.

I only count down 8-deck shoes for practice, but I don't ever keep the time. Instead, I'll just try to do it with the most number of distractions possible. My favorite drill is counting down the 8-deck shoe, while on the phone with a friend who does not know of my distraction. What I aim for is to be able to count down the shoe at a constant pace (i.e., no abrupt pauses), just letting it almost become a passive process that no longer requires my attention. I practice counting down the eight-deck shoe one-card at a time, in pairs (this is of the utmost importance and will give you a lot of free time at the table if you can count in pairs well) and then on CVBJ (I see you have the program) there is a drill where you set the flash speed and how many cards you want it to flash at a time. (This drill is nice because then you no longer have the option of slowing down if you almost lose the count).

P.S. Once you start getting good with Hi-Lo, crank up the deal speed on CVBJ. It is absolutely unreal how fast the deal speed can be set on that program. Absolutely unreal.

SP

 

[apex]

I only count down 8-deck shoes for practice, but I don't ever keep the time. Instead, I'll just try to do it with the most number of distractions possible. My favorite drill is counting down the 8-deck shoe, while on the phone with a friend who does not know of my distraction. What I aim for is to be able to count down the shoe at a constant pace (i.e., no abrupt pauses), just letting it almost become a passive process that no longer requires my attention. I practice counting down the eight-deck shoe one-card at a time, in pairs (this is of the utmost importance and will give you a lot of free time at the table if you can count in pairs well) and then on CVBJ (I see you have the program) there is a drill where you set the flash speed and how many cards you want it to flash at a time. (This drill is nice because then you no longer have the option of slowing down if you almost lose the count).
SP

That is some intense practice. I am setting the over/under date at June 15 2015 for SP earning his first blackjack million. Any takers??

 

[Southpaw]

That is some intense practice. I am setting the over/under date at June 15 2015 for SP earning his first blackjack million. Any takers??

That'd be nice, but I doubt it. Bankroll is way too small, though I am over 3k, now at least ...

SP

 

[BJgenius007]

Hi guys,i'm new to blackjack and card counting,and i'm here to learn more from you.
It's about 1 month that i know what bj is,never played before this little time in my life and now after about 2 weeks of pratice i know perfectly basic strategy and i'm a novice card counter.
I use Hi-Lo method and i'm able to count 1 single deck - 2 cards in about 22-25 seconds...i know i have to do better but for a starting point i think it can be quite good....
I live at 5mins from 3 casinos and i have 5 in the range of 50kms from where i live.
i practice with real cards and with the simulator casino veritev5

Here most casinos plays 6 decks, s17, das , no surrender , no peek and only 1 card after ace split,blackjack pays 3:2 ofcourse.

I haven't a great availability of money becouse i'm a student but there are tablets at 10€ min. bet

How about variations of bets on TC?

example my standard bet it's 10€

tc 1 : 10€
tc 2 : ?
tc 3 : ?
tc 4 : ?
tc 5 : ?

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

single deck:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 20
tc 3+: 40 (60 if penetration < 70%)

double decks:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 20
tc 3: 40 (60 if penetration < 70%)
tc 4+: 80 (120 if penetration < 70%)

6 decks:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 40
tc 3: 80
tc 4+: 160

8 decks:
tc 1 and below : 10
tc 2: 50
tc 3: 100
tc 4+: 200

Your advantage:
negative TC: no
TC 1: 0%
TC 2: 0.5%
TC 3: 1%
TC 4: 1.5%
TC 5: 2%
etc

 

[BJgenius007]

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

Bad players ahead of you will reduce your winning percentage. Assume TC is high, the correct move is to stay and let the dealer bust. But bad players will randomly draw or stay, when TC is high, that means the remaining deck has more tens, thus he or she will get ten more often than small cards if he or she draw another card, that ultimately reduce the TC unnecessarily. So although bad player doesn't affect your play decision, it reduces your winning percentage in the long run. The best playing environment is head to head (optimized playing decision by only you) then tables with all counters(still optimized if everyone is perfect counter), then tables with basic strategy players, then tables with random players. The worst tablemates are who draw when TC is high and stay when TC is negative. Believe me, I have seen such kind of people.

 

[zengrifter]

single deck:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 20
tc 3+: 40 (60 if penetration < 70%)

double decks:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 20
tc 3: 40 (60 if penetration < 70%)
tc 4+: 80 (120 if penetration < 70%)

6 decks:
tc 1 and below: 10
tc 2: 40
tc 3: 80
tc 4+: 160

8 decks:
tc 1 and below : 10
tc 2: 50
tc 3: 100
tc 4+: 200

Back to the drawing board, Genius - This is ALL wrong. It demonstrates a common confusion regarding the issue of bigger spreads when applied to greater #decks.

Redo your betting suggestions. This time use the max bet as the constant, not the min bet. zg

Example:

1D -
25
50
100

2D -
10
20
50
100

6D
5
10
20
40
80
100

ETC

 

[Beldin]

welcome to the site - you will find many helpful people here - and some that are not so helpful. Most of the non-helpful people you'll meet seem to around the time you start making bigger money. If you do ever get lucky/succeed in the short run - be prepared for some disbelief. It happens.

It seems so far everyone likes you

 

[aslan]

Back to the drawing board, Genius - This is ALL wrong. It demonstrates a common confusion regarding the issue of bigger spreads when applied to greater #decks.

Redo your betting suggestions. This time use the max bet as the constant, not the min bet. zg

Example:

1D -
25
50
100

2D -
10
20
50
100

6D
5
10
20
40
80
100

ETC

But really, zg, do you believe you need a 1-10 unit spread to beat a DD game? Why generate the extra heat when you can beat the game soundly with less?

 

[zengrifter]

But really, zg, do you believe you need a 1-10 unit spread to beat a DD game? Why generate the extra heat when you can beat the game soundly with less?

Depends on pene. The examples were for illustration.
-> Many new and/or uninformed counters don't understand how to calculate spread.
Spread is calculated from the top down, NOT vice-versa. Principal remains the same. zg

 

[aslan]

Depends on pene. The examples were for illustration.
-> Many new and/or uninformed counters don't understand how to calculate spread.
Spread is calculated from the top down, NOT vice-versa. Principal remains the same. zg

Maybe, if it's the only game in town. Otherwise, why walk deliberately into bad pen? OTOH, I guess they could think their game stinks so bad they don't even bother to protect it.

 

[zengrifter]

Maybe, if it's the only game in town. Otherwise, why walk deliberately into bad pen? OTOH, I guess they could think their game stinks so bad they don't even bother to protect it.

Irrelevant to this thread. BJGenius was totally off on his examples of spread geared to various #decks because he used min rather than max as his bet constant. This is an important source of confusion for many. zg

 

[aslan]

Irrelevant to this thread. BJGenius was totally off on his examples of spread geared to various #decks because he used min rather than max as his bet constant. This is an important source of confusion for many. zg

But highly relevant to your statement I thought.

 

[Renzey]

Bad players ahead of you will reduce your winning percentage. Assume TC is high, the correct move is to stay and let the dealer bust. But bad players will randomly draw or stay, when TC is high. That means the remaining deck has more tens, thus he or she will get ten more often than small cards if he or she draw another card. That ultimately reduces the TC unnecesarily .

NO, NO, NO! Not correct! If 50% of the remaining cards at a high TC are 10's rather than the normal 30%, then taking ten hits off the top are likely to take out five 10's rather than three 10's. That must still leave 50% 10's in the remaining pack for the dealer. If the pack were 30% 10's, then ten hits should yield three 10's, still leaving 30% 10's in the pack.

 

[zengrifter]

So BJGenius007 was wrong on multiple counts (no pun),
including his defiance in ignarus of the true-count theorem. zg

 

[zengrifter]

How about variations of bets on TC?
example my standard bet it's 10€

tc 1 : 10€
tc 2 : ?
tc 3 : ?
tc 4 : ?
tc 5 : ?

6D
0 - 10
1 - 25
2 - 25-25
3 - 50-50

At TC -1 or lower bet ZERO

To have a risk of losing the whole BR under 20% you'd best have 10,000€

How about others players influence?
Example if there are players that play stupid at the table is it better to left it or it doesn't matter at all for me?
There is a number of players at the table or a position that it's better?

Other players have no effect.
Fewer are better
Position unimportant, for now, sit where you are comfortable. zg

 

[Beldin]

NO, NO, NO! Not correct! If 50% of the remaining cards at a high TC are 10's rather than the normal 30%, then taking ten hits off the top are likely to take out five 10's rather than three 10's. That must still leave 50% 10's in the remaining pack for the dealer. If the pack were 30% 10's, then ten hits should yield three 10's, still leaving 30% 10's in the pack.

I understand what you are saying - however - doesn't the idea of people taking x # of hits on a high TC when they have stiff hands, mean each hit is independent of each other. You'd have to recalculate each hit with respect to the TC wouldn't you? You aren't hitting or not hitting based on and even ratio of the TC coming out of the deck - you're hitting or staying based on the % chance on the current moment of the TC.

I think I'm missing details of what I'm trying to explain. I totally understand what you're saying above regarding the chances for 10's over a series of hits depending on the TC but the whole reason to update the TC as hits come out is so you know how it is evolving right? Doesn't that ultimately affect the TC calculation/index plays/etc you are making moment to moment?

 

[zengrifter]

- doesn't the idea of people taking x # of hits on a high TC when they have stiff hands, mean each hit is independent of each other. You'd have to recalculate each hit with respect to the TC wouldn't you? You aren't hitting or not hitting based on and even ratio of the TC coming out of the deck - you're hitting or staying based on the % chance on the current moment of the TC.

I think I'm missing details of what I'm trying to explain. I totally understand what you're saying above regarding the chances for 10's over a series of hits depending on the TC but the whole reason to update the TC as hits come out is so you know how it is evolving right? Doesn't that ultimately affect the TC calculation/index plays/etc you are making moment to moment?

Two issues >>

1. Despite "excess hits" by others prior to your hand, the TC does NOT tend to drop per'se, it is relatively constant as compared to RC. (See Clark Cant's True Count Theorem (Archive copy) explanation) SO this means that the others' excess hits in no way mitigate your TC-based bet size.

2. Yes you should calc the TC right up to the play of your hand as the excess hits are taken (For this reason it is important to establish a regular pattern for how and when you count each card in play). Notwithstanding, in 6D+ games this is not nearly as important as in 1-2D, but it should be automatic for you anyway once you have established your 'counting pattern.'

 

[aslan]

I understand what you are saying - however - doesn't the idea of people taking x # of hits on a high TC when they have stiff hands, mean each hit is independent of each other. You'd have to recalculate each hit with respect to the TC wouldn't you? You aren't hitting or not hitting based on and even ratio of the TC coming out of the deck - you're hitting or staying based on the % chance on the current moment of the TC.

I think I'm missing details of what I'm trying to explain. I totally understand what you're saying above regarding the chances for 10's over a series of hits depending on the TC but the whole reason to update the TC as hits come out is so you know how it is evolving right? Doesn't that ultimately affect the TC calculation/index plays/etc you are making moment to moment?

Odds are it will work out just the way Fred said. You are basing your thought on the the unlikely situation where the ploppy takes a disproportionate number of tens. By the same token, are you going to kiss him when he takes a disproportionate number of small cards? It's a two-edged sword. It is ploppy thinking to be upset with another player taking the "good" cards, just as it is ploppy thinking to blame the last player for taking the dealer's bust card. Yet we see it all the time. Look at it this way -- On average, ploppy moves do not affect the odds. Naturally, it can work either way any given time, but on average you will benefit from stupid ploppy moves as much as you will be hurt by them. You know that. Heck, if there weren't ploppies, everyone would be beating the house and they'd have to change the game to where no one could win. Long live ploppies!