The Riddle of the Dealer's Bust Card
aslan said:
Odds are it will work out just the way Fred said. !
Thanks Asian for the backup. To try to clarify this for the OP in layman's terms, suppose you're playing with one ploppy on your left. You both have 14 while the dealer's up-card is a 6. You properly stand and the ploppy vassilates over what to do. Since the dealer is the ploppy's mother, she flashes her hole card -- a
10! Then she takes out the next three cards in the shoe and turns them up. They are
10-10-5. Now she turns them face-down, scrambles them and puts them back in the shoe.
So we know that if the ploppy stands, the dealer will bust 2 times out of 3.
But how often will the dealer bust if the ploppy hits???
Well, when the ploppy hits, 2 times out of 3 he will draw a
10. That will leave one
10 and one
5 in the shoe for the dealer. Those two times the dealer will bust once and make 21 once. But that third time that the ploppy hits, he will take the
5. That one time, the dealer must bust! So then, if the ploppy hits, the dealer will still bust 2 times out of 3.