New Counter - Plan of Attack!

[kiwiana]

Hey there,

Have been reading these posts for a couple days now - bunch of great peeps here, so thought to chuck in my story and hope the expers out there let me know if im heading in the right direction.

Started counting cards for 2 reasons: 1) got too much free time on my OE, both at my job (working everyday, so I practice the fundamentals 5-8 hours a day) and 2) being in a country that dosen't speak english, some nights I feel like just staying home and chilling - more time to practice. Final factor that ignited my desire to count cards was my trip to Monaco. If all goes well, I would like to be a counter to rack up enough money to start other business ventures - if counting by itself would not provide a nice lifestyle. If things don't go well, i.e. lose all my bankroll - oh well it was an experiance! So entering this card counting stage in my life I suppose you could call it with nothing to lose.

Here is my plan to get my card counting experiance started: Learn Basic Strategy, Hi-Lo system, 18-20 deviations in 7 weeks - with the daily time allotted, thats simple for me. Practicing with one deck, getting my speed up and 6 deck for endurance, slowly getting faster - flash cards for the basic strategy which i know by now, still got to start on the deviations which will take a week or 2. Use CVBJ for practise also as reading bits and pieces everynow and then. Do i REALLY need to know all the fine statistical details to have a chance? or will i go just fine knowing the basics? Course I will record my winnings, time spent in casino, betting unit, cumilative details etc.

Come 1st october Im gonna be hitting Fremch stores. Bank roll will b 3500-4000 EURO, scoped out rules of the casinos I'll be starting at - they are pretty standard - 6 decks - just no surrender. Start off with $5 minimum bets. Franse will be the make or break: If all goes well in franse, will move to the UK and hit Lundon stores while working a basic job to cover my living expenses til i earn enuff from counting to live well off that. If not, back home - work a normal job while counting for a hobby. I hope for the former. Thats my short term goals in counting. Feesable?

Thats all I can think of right now, will let ya's know on more details as they come to my mind. What do ya's reckon bout the above? :toast:

 

[Blue Efficacy]

You're not going to make enough to transform your lifestyle or start a new business with that bankroll. You could very well lose the whole roll.

That said, if you enjoy the game, go for it. If you have a lot of time to kill, might as well use it to become proficient at blackjack and hopefully make a modest profit along the way.

Just remember, Blackjack is NOT a road to quick riches. Do not expect to earn more per hour (all averaged out) than you would at your job.

 

[sagefr0g]

imho you have constructed a well thought out plan.
just, haven't any idea how feasible it is.
i think you should have a simulator such as cvcx and also take more interest in the statistical aspects, especially when it comes to your bankroll and betting plans.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Do i REALLY need to know all the fine statistical details to have a chance? or will i go just fine knowing the basics?

You don't need to know any complex math but make sure you have a firm grasp on Standard Deviation, Risk of Ruin, Kelly Betting, etc..

Good Luck!

 

[kiwiana]

You're not going to make enough to transform your lifestyle or start a new business with that bankroll. You could very well lose the whole roll.

That said, if you enjoy the game, go for it. If you have a lot of time to kill, might as well use it to become proficient at blackjack and hopefully make a modest profit along the way.

Just remember, Blackjack is NOT a road to quick riches. Do not expect to earn more per hour (all averaged out) than you would at your job.

but i figure if i start from a low bank roll - ok say 10,000euro/$ with betting unit of 5E/$ and then slowly work my way up to whatever amount that way i'll also gain the experience to be confident betting 50-100$ or more as a minimum... right? And going by what I have reading, the minimum bet should be from 1/500 to 1/1000 of the bankroll. If i start with 3500euro, 5euro bet is 1/700 - so isnt that sufficient?

I understand I wont have enuf to transform lifestyle with that bankroll - but its a better start than none. What statisical evidence is there that i could lose the lot? I suppose thats the risk of ruin? How can I work that out?

 

[kiwiana]

You don't need to know any complex math but make sure you have a firm grasp on Standard Deviation, Risk of Ruin, Kelly Betting, etc..

Good Luck!

did university stats a couple years ago - so kinda got an idea bout standard dev... will do some revision - but wut else shud i have an idea of to pevent me losing me and/or help me make more?

 

[Blue Efficacy]

but i figure if i start from a low bank roll - ok say 10,000euro/$ with betting unit of 5E/$ and then slowly work my way up to whatever amount that way i'll also gain the experience to be confident betting 50-100$ or more as a minimum... right? And going by what I have reading, the minimum bet should be from 1/500 to 1/1000 of the bankroll. If i start with 3500euro, 5euro bet is 1/700 - so isnt that sufficient?

I understand I wont have enuf to transform lifestyle with that bankroll - but its a better start than none. What statisical evidence is there that i could lose the lot? I suppose thats the risk of ruin? How can I work that out?

You definitely have enough for a 5 euro minimum game.

However, this will not be enough to earn a large hourly rate. Risk of ruin is dependent on the game, rules and penetration, and the betting spread you use. "wonging" will reduce your risk of ruin but will also reduce your win rate since you'll play fewer hands.

 

[Licentia]

but i figure if i start from a low bank roll - ok say 10,000euro/$ with betting unit of 5E/$ and then slowly work my way up to whatever amount that way i'll also gain the experience to be confident betting 50-100$ or more as a minimum... right? And going by what I have reading, the minimum bet should be from 1/500 to 1/1000 of the bankroll. If i start with 3500euro, 5euro bet is 1/700 - so isnt that sufficient?

I understand I wont have enuf to transform lifestyle with that bankroll - but its a better start than none. What statisical evidence is there that i could lose the lot? I suppose thats the risk of ruin? How can I work that out?

Having a small edge on the casino with small bets earns you small money. I think your plans are too ambitious, moving around and such determining to make a profit travelling from city to city.

I do suggest you consider the possibilities of failure, or of being barred from casinos and the like. Consider that you could lose this money and however ho-hum you are now you will feel pain if you lose the money. Consider also that you may hit poor penetration in certain casinos to the end that you won't make a dime.

Also have you considered how long you can play in each casino each day? How close together are the casinos? Can you reasonably play at 8 hours a day in order to make a similar amount to working? I would say only if you can visit 4 different casinos in 1 day you could play 8 hours safely, and only if you have about 12 casinos available to play at per week which are open 24 hours a day so you can play different shifts around the clock.

You can't just sit in the same casino day after day counting cards for 8 hours a day... Even playing a system you can't safely sit in a casino that long every day or staff and other players begin to watch and question you.

Wisdom my friend, Wisdom! Don't quit your day job and give up your home and lifestyle on a whim!

Licentia

 

[kiwiana]

i know small money will be made. i wouldnt be able to play upto 8 hours a day - hence why i wud still work to cover living costs and such. this is money i have put aside for my venture - so if i lose it all it wont change my lifestyle. what do you recommend then? double or triple my bankroll before having any hope of making enough money to see my bankroll rise in the long run - like maybe start at a 10 or 15$ min bet ?

i would probably play 4 hours a night - most nights + my day job - all money going into my bankroll from both incomes to get it up to a decent amount. Understood that the money i put in from my day job will be much more than i will b earning from blackjack at that low bankroll level - but the experience wouldnt hurt.

I know it won't be easy - nor fast way to riches - but if i keep at it - stats do the talking.

side question: if their bank roll allows - do some counters use a minimum of 1000$ bet and more or do they just stick to low amount?

 

[13Counter]

Best advice someone gave me about counting cards was ...

"Don't practice until you get it right, practice until you can't get it wrong."

'nuff said

 

[Licentia]

i know small money will be made. i wouldnt be able to play upto 8 hours a day - hence why i wud still work to cover living costs and such. this is money i have put aside for my venture - so if i lose it all it wont change my lifestyle. what do you recommend then? double or triple my bankroll before having any hope of making enough money to see my bankroll rise in the long run - like maybe start at a 10 or 15$ min bet ?

i would probably play 4 hours a night - most nights + my day job - all money going into my bankroll from both incomes to get it up to a decent amount. Understood that the money i put in from my day job will be much more than i will b earning from blackjack at that low bankroll level - but the experience wouldnt hurt.

I'm just trying to throw down a hard caution so you are certain to think this through carefully. So long as you are sure you will have a place to live and a job where you travel to, then you are okay. As long as you are making enough from your job to pay the bills and the BlackJack is not at all what you are dependent on for your basic living expenses then you are okay. I just want to make sure you plan for all the variables ahead of time so we don't hear a horror story from you in the future. Other than that have fun!

I don't count cards so I don't know all the info you are asking. Someone else can help with specific bankroll info.

Licentia