New Guy

[Rumondo]

Hey,

I've been trolling on these boards for a week or so now didn't want to ask any questions that have already been answered, but I'm sure I will anyways.

Been playing BJ for a couple years now, but only recently fully mastered BS. I've read up on Hi-Lo and feel fairly comfortable with that system although right now I don't expect to make perfect decisions.

I've got a trip coming up to the Biloxi area in a couple weeks and plan on going with a friend and we've both got about a 1k trip bankroll. I realize this is less than optimal, but it's what we've got to work with for now, although I do have a fairly generous salary so I'm not worried if I did manage to lose it all on this trip. I imagine I'll stick to 5 or 10 dollar mins depending on what I find with a 1-8 spread. I know there will be (6D,S17,DAS,NS) games, and hopefully (2D,S17,DAS), NS games as well (if I can afford the limits)

edit: To be clear we will be playing seperate and both have a 1k bank roll.

Couple questions. I realize there's quite a few calculators out there for ROR, and to help determine EV, but in a lot of posts I've still run across acronyms I'm not familiar with (namely Kelly). That keep me from fully comprehending some of the advice.

I'm certainly willing to purchase some BJ software or calculators that would help me take my current abilities to determine expected winnings per hour, but I'm not sure what is my best option.

Also, if anyone would like to throw out a ballpark RoR for me I'd greatly appreciate knowing the range of returns I might can expect.

Also, I realize there's a BJ trainer on this sight that has greatly helped me staying fresh on BS, but is there any tools to help me with combining BS with the HI-Lo count to get a general expected units/100 hands return?

So far this has been a very informative sight and I appreciate all that you guys have contributed to it and look forward to turning some of this knowledge into profits in the future.

Thanks again and sorry for my ignorance I'm working on it.
JB

 

[sagefr0g]

Hey,

I've been trolling on these boards for a week or so now didn't want to ask any questions that have already been answered, but I'm sure I will anyways.

Been playing BJ for a couple years now, but only recently fully mastered BS. I've read up on Hi-Lo and feel fairly comfortable with that system although right now I don't expect to make perfect decisions.

I've got a trip coming up to the Biloxi area in a couple weeks and plan on going with a friend and we've both got about a 1k trip bankroll. I realize this is less than optimal, but it's what we've got to work with for now, although I do have a fairly generous salary so I'm not worried if I did manage to lose it all on this trip. I imagine I'll stick to 5 or 10 dollar mins depending on what I find with a 1-8 spread. I know there will be (6D,S17,DAS,NS) games, and hopefully (2D,S17,DAS), NS games as well (if I can afford the limits)

edit: To be clear we will be playing seperate and both have a 1k bank roll.

Couple questions. I realize there's quite a few calculators out there for ROR, and to help determine EV, but in a lot of posts I've still run across acronyms I'm not familiar with (namely Kelly). That keep me from fully comprehending some of the advice.

I'm certainly willing to purchase some BJ software or calculators that would help me take my current abilities to determine expected winnings per hour, but I'm not sure what is my best option.

Also, if anyone would like to throw out a ballpark RoR for me I'd greatly appreciate knowing the range of returns I might can expect.

Also, I realize there's a BJ trainer on this sight that has greatly helped me staying fresh on BS, but is there any tools to help me with combining BS with the HI-Lo count to get a general expected units/100 hands return?

So far this has been a very informative sight and I appreciate all that you guys have contributed to it and look forward to turning some of this knowledge into profits in the future.

Thanks again and sorry for my ignorance I'm working on it.
JB

well life time ror be about 70%
on a trip say you play a thousand hands each at differant tables so two thousand hands. i think your trip ror is about 9% .
thats for a $5 table, s17das six deck game circa 75% pen
betting $5 at tc<=0 $10 at tc=1 $25 at tc=2 $40 at tc>=3
win/rate about $3.60/hr over a lifetime, standar deviation about $28/hr........
i think the sim i looked at was for heads up play. i doubt you'll get much of that. so i guess your win/rate would be lower.
sorry i couldn't spend much time on this.
not really sure how accurate i was. so take it with a definate grain of salt.
if you are interested in some bj software consider cvbj and cvcx. just learn how to use better than i have lol.
oh yeah and be careful out there........

 

[rukus]

Hey,

I've been trolling on these boards for a week or so now didn't want to ask any questions that have already been answered, but I'm sure I will anyways.

Been playing BJ for a couple years now, but only recently fully mastered BS. I've read up on Hi-Lo and feel fairly comfortable with that system although right now I don't expect to make perfect decisions.

I've got a trip coming up to the Biloxi area in a couple weeks and plan on going with a friend and we've both got about a 1k trip bankroll. I realize this is less than optimal, but it's what we've got to work with for now, although I do have a fairly generous salary so I'm not worried if I did manage to lose it all on this trip. I imagine I'll stick to 5 or 10 dollar mins depending on what I find with a 1-8 spread. I know there will be (6D,S17,DAS,NS) games, and hopefully (2D,S17,DAS), NS games as well (if I can afford the limits)

edit: To be clear we will be playing seperate and both have a 1k bank roll.

Couple questions. I realize there's quite a few calculators out there for ROR, and to help determine EV, but in a lot of posts I've still run across acronyms I'm not familiar with (namely Kelly). That keep me from fully comprehending some of the advice.

I'm certainly willing to purchase some BJ software or calculators that would help me take my current abilities to determine expected winnings per hour, but I'm not sure what is my best option.

Also, if anyone would like to throw out a ballpark RoR for me I'd greatly appreciate knowing the range of returns I might can expect.

Also, I realize there's a BJ trainer on this sight that has greatly helped me staying fresh on BS, but is there any tools to help me with combining BS with the HI-Lo count to get a general expected units/100 hands return?

So far this has been a very informative sight and I appreciate all that you guys have contributed to it and look forward to turning some of this knowledge into profits in the future.

Thanks again and sorry for my ignorance I'm working on it.
JB

take a walk through the variosu calculators found on QFIT's (producer of hits such as CVBJ and CVCX)website:
QFIT's blackjack calculators

for instance the blackjack income calculator there tells me that you playing a 1k bank, making optimal bets with a 1-8 spread using HiLo and the Illustrious 18/Fab 4 on a 6D S17 DAS game with 1.5D cut off, you would achieve an hourly win rate of $1.33. good thing you have a salaried job, huh? now if you were to play as if you had a 5k bank and were only taking 1k with you (and thus run an even higher risk of tapping out during the trip), the calculator tells me you can achieve $6.60/hour. this assumes you play all hands, making a 1-8 spread pretty useless.

Also, see QFIT's CVCX Online for more calculators such as Risk of ruin calculators.

I highly recommend you take the time to play around with all the tools available in those links! worth every minute.

Good cards,
rukus

 

[callipygian]

in a lot of posts I've still run across acronyms I'm not familiar with (namely Kelly).

The Kelly criterion is a bet sizing strategy where you should bet your advantage of your bankroll.

For example, with a total bankroll of $1,000 and a minimum bet of $10, you should be only Wonging in with minimum bets when your advantage is 1% (Hi-Lo TC+3) or greater. If you had a $10,000 bankroll, you could bet the table minimum when the TC<=+1, $50 when TC=+2, $100 when TC=+3, etc.

Keep in mind that if you use Kelly bet sizing, you need to lower your bets if your bankroll decreases. This makes it difficult to recover from an unlucky streak. Most people agree that full-Kelly betting leads to far more variance than is desirable (dubbed the "full Kelly roller coaster"), and use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly bet sizing.

 

[Rumondo]

Thanks for the input guys.

So to clarify "Kelly" is just a strategy to minimize your RoR but at the cost of lowering your EV as you lower your bets according to your Bankroll?

That sounds like if you continually used Kelly, you'd just ruin your EV, because you'd never consistently bet enough on positive counts to make up for previous losses on positive counts.

Like if I bet 80 on an TC of +6 then double down and happen to lose that hand because of variance. "Kelly" would lead me to shrink my bets since 16% of my trip roll is gone and make it virtually impossible to keep a positive EV right?

Sorry I could easily still be missing something. Also, I've read Blackwood's book about Hi-Lo so it included the Illustrious 18, but I haven't heard of the Fab 4. Speaking of the Illustrious 18 say you have a Blackjack against an Ace with a TC of +3 does that mean you should take even money? Is even money a separate bet from Insurance?

I also wanted to ask what's the expected hands per hour at a recreational full table like most $10. And what it is on say a heads up handheld game.

Thanks again,
JB

 

[la_dee_daa]

Thanks for the input guys.

So to clarify "Kelly" is just a strategy to minimize your RoR but at the cost of lowering your EV as you lower your bets according to your Bankroll?

That sounds like if you continually used Kelly, you'd just ruin your EV, because you'd never consistently bet enough on positive counts to make up for previous losses on positive counts.

Like if I bet 80 on an TC of +6 then double down and happen to lose that hand because of variance. "Kelly" would lead me to shrink my bets since 16% of my trip roll is gone and make it virtually impossible to keep a positive EV right?

Sorry I could easily still be missing something. Also, I've read Blackwood's book about Hi-Lo so it included the Illustrious 18, but I haven't heard of the Fab 4. Speaking of the Illustrious 18 say you have a Blackjack against an Ace with a TC of +3 does that mean you should take even money? Is even money a separate bet from Insurance?

I also wanted to ask what's the expected hands per hour at a recreational full table like most $10. And what it is on say a heads up handheld game.

Thanks again,
JB

taking even money is just fancy talking for insurance.

full tables are not good for counting since it goes soo slowly and if you do hit a positive count it can be gone after the next hand because so many hands are played. i never calculated it out but maybe like 60??? maybe less.. heads up you can get more like 100.

 

[callipygian]

So to clarify "Kelly" is just a strategy to minimize your RoR but at the cost of lowering your EV as you lower your bets according to your Bankroll?

The Kelly criterion has nothing to do with your EV.

That sounds like if you continually used Kelly, you'd just ruin your EV, because you'd never consistently bet enough on positive counts to make up for previous losses on positive counts.

EV is always your expected winnings divided by the bet, so it is constant with bet size. But yes, losing a big full-Kelly bet (doubled or tripled especially) will definitely lower your win rate. You have the same EV, but it's hard to fight back from a big loss.

I've read Blackwood's book about Hi-Lo so it included the Illustrious 18, but I haven't heard of the Fab 4.

None of the strategy changes are fixed, and which ones are most valuable actually depends on your bet spread. Someone who only plays at TC>+2 will have a different "Illustrious 18" than someone who plays at all TC's. Likewise, someone who bets TC=+1, 1 unit; TC = +2, 2 units; TC = +3, 4 units will have a different Illustrious 18 than someone who bets TC=+1, 1 unit; TC = +2, 1 unit; TC = +3, 4 units - even though both have a "1:4 spread".

You can check this for yourself by Googling "Illustrious 18" and then clicking on multiple links. You'll note that none of them have exactly the same 18.

For what it's worth, I Googled "Fab 4 blackjack" and got this link.
http://www.bjrnet.com/faq21_12.htm

Is even money a separate bet from Insurance?

It's the exact same bet. If you take insurance with a blackjack, and dealer has a blackjack, then you win 2:1 on your insurance bet but push your hand. So you win 2x0.5 = 1 bet. If you take insurance with a blackjack, and dealer does not have blackjack, then you lose your insurance bet but get paid 3:2 for your hand. So you net 1.5-0.5 = 1 bet.

 

[Rumondo]

Ok thanks for the clarification.

I understand that you'd prefer to count heads up or at a smaller table vs. the dealer. The only wayI can see that as a possibility with a 1k bank roll is to either play with an extremely high RoR to have a high enough min to keep the table down, or to wait and play at say the 3-8 am time frame when their aren't as many people at the tables.

 

[la_dee_daa]

Ok thanks for the clarification.

I understand that you'd prefer to count heads up or at a smaller table vs. the dealer. The only wayI can see that as a possibility with a 1k bank roll is to either play with an extremely high RoR to have a high enough min to keep the table down, or to wait and play at say the 3-8 am time frame when their aren't as many people at the tables.

with a 1 k roll just wong and never play a negative count let alone a count of zero and better yet get a few more k to help the cause.

 

[Rumondo]

Ok, I need a little help here with the concept of Wonging. While I completely understand it and agree with it in principle I don't understand how you actually execute it in the casino.

2 examples:

1. 6-deck shoe, No surrender/Double any 2 cards/Split up to 4 times/No Resplit Aces/ Good penetration/ 10 min/1000max bet. Full Table 7 people.

So let's say I stand around and backcount the shoe and late in the round the TC is roughly +4 and a spot opens up so I sit down and make my bet, by the end of that one hand though the TC could easily be back to negative. Would I be consistently sitting down for one hand and hopping back up? If so, I see the benefit in I'd rarely be making a min. bet and I'd always be betting in favorable situations, but wouldn't this be easily noticed?

2. DD/ Same rules as above/Min 25/Max2500. - Only 1 person playing on this table.

How would you backcount in this game without being obvious and how could you sit down in the middle of a deck? If you start on the deck, how do you consistenly leave with a -TC, and if you leave and come back you just tell them you'll wait on the next shuffle? I'm still brand new here so maybe I have the concept wrong, but outside of just walking away from a truly awful -TC how can you really Wong on a SD or DD game that has only 1-2 players?

As always thanks for the insight a week away from seeing how this goes.
JB

 

[callipygian]

let's say I stand around and backcount the shoe

This is a surefire way to get watched by the cameras. There's even a name that surveillance teams have for people who lurk around games and hop in - I read it in a book but forgot it.

You have to be more discreet and creative about watching a table. I'm not going to list all the things that I do, but two well-known ploys are:

(1) Stand around and watch a slot player / roulette wheel and while backcounting a blackjack table at a distance.

(2) Pretending to advise a friend / wife about basic strategy, and jumping in with larger bets.

I sit down and make my bet, by the end of that one hand though the TC could easily be back to negative. Would I be consistently sitting down for one hand and hopping back up?

Yeah, that's a problem. I usually get around this by buying in for a really small amount when I Wong in - one or two bets, usually. Then it's pretty natural to Wong out, win or lose.

Wonging in and out is pretty obvious to the cameras, and there's really nothing you can do to hide it. Move from casino to casino frequently to limit their data points on you.

 

[la_dee_daa]

Ok, I need a little help here with the concept of Wonging. While I completely understand it and agree with it in principle I don't understand how you actually execute it in the casino.

2 examples:

1. 6-deck shoe, No surrender/Double any 2 cards/Split up to 4 times/No Resplit Aces/ Good penetration/ 10 min/1000max bet. Full Table 7 people.

So let's say I stand around and backcount the shoe and late in the round the TC is roughly +4 and a spot opens up so I sit down and make my bet, by the end of that one hand though the TC could easily be back to negative. Would I be consistently sitting down for one hand and hopping back up? If so, I see the benefit in I'd rarely be making a min. bet and I'd always be betting in favorable situations, but wouldn't this be easily noticed?

2. DD/ Same rules as above/Min 25/Max2500. - Only 1 person playing on this table.

How would you backcount in this game without being obvious and how could you sit down in the middle of a deck? If you start on the deck, how do you consistenly leave with a -TC, and if you leave and come back you just tell them you'll wait on the next shuffle? I'm still brand new here so maybe I have the concept wrong, but outside of just walking away from a truly awful -TC how can you really Wong on a SD or DD game that has only 1-2 players?

As always thanks for the insight a week away from seeing how this goes.
JB

1. well thats the problem with a full table. superstitiouse people sometimes only play a hand so its not that obviouse. and your stakes are small so it will go more unnoticed then. go text message on your cell phone or something if you want to sit out a hand.. its kinda not the best at full tables since the count can change so quickly from positive to negative.

2. i dont have any dd or sd games where i live so i dont know

 

[Rumondo]

So anyways, two weeks later and I'm back from my first trip after using a count strategy (basic Hi-Lo) and sticking to standard BS.

I had a 1k roll so I knew the odds were against me going in, and the best game I could find was a 15 min 2 deck with good rules (S17, No Surrender, Double any 2, resplit Aces). The biggest problem I noticed was no mid-deck entry, and what I felt was bad penetration (normally they'd cut at half the deck, but one dealer did even less!).

I felt that this was probably a losing game, but considered it a better option than any of the 8 deck shoes, and with my roll I'd get eaten alive at any better double or single deck that had a 25 or 50 min. Overall I didn't lose my entire roll, but I did lose most of it. I'm not suprised by this because I knew being there 3 days I wouldn't want to "dip" into all 1k on the first shoe or even the first or 2nd night. So I tried to play in 300 "chunks", but variance bit me in the ass quite often.

Going forward I'm curious as to what's a good min "unit" roll for a trip where you plan on playing 2-4 person games double deck vs. a dealer usually 2 days anywhere from 8-14 hours a day? Would a 100 unit trip roll keep me above a substacial RoR?

Also, any suggestions on what system I should switch to that's most effective at DD. I don't have any trouble keeping a basic Hi-Lo count or following Basic Strategy, I'd just like to be more effective since it's only double deck.

Thanks for the input. I know it seems rather stupid to go on a trip with such low expectations, but it was more of a vacation get the feel for Biloxi, over actually trying to become an AP in a weekend.

On a side note, there was dealer who said he was "pissed at the casino" and routinely cut much much lower than the discard rack had marked (he'd even say screw them when he did it). He'd probably deal down to 25-30 cards left, but he was only dealing in relief. The few shots I got at him (he seemed to be very counter friendly tipping probably helped that) I continually got stuck with late negative counts so I couldn't capitalize like I wanted, but it seemed a golden opportunity for those 20 mins of every hour he was there.
JB

 

[la_dee_daa]

So anyways, two weeks later and I'm back from my first trip after using a count strategy (basic Hi-Lo) and sticking to standard BS.

I had a 1k roll so I knew the odds were against me going in, and the best game I could find was a 15 min 2 deck with good rules (S17, No Surrender, Double any 2, resplit Aces). The biggest problem I noticed was no mid-deck entry, and what I felt was bad penetration (normally they'd cut at half the deck, but one dealer did even less!).

I felt that this was probably a losing game, but considered it a better option than any of the 8 deck shoes, and with my roll I'd get eaten alive at any better double or single deck that had a 25 or 50 min. Overall I didn't lose my entire roll, but I did lose most of it. I'm not suprised by this because I knew being there 3 days I wouldn't want to "dip" into all 1k on the first shoe or even the first or 2nd night. So I tried to play in 300 "chunks", but variance bit me in the ass quite often.

Going forward I'm curious as to what's a good min "unit" roll for a trip where you plan on playing 2-4 person games double deck vs. a dealer usually 2 days anywhere from 8-14 hours a day? Would a 100 unit trip roll keep me above a substacial RoR?

Also, any suggestions on what system I should switch to that's most effective at DD. I don't have any trouble keeping a basic Hi-Lo count or following Basic Strategy, I'd just like to be more effective since it's only double deck.

Thanks for the input. I know it seems rather stupid to go on a trip with such low expectations, but it was more of a vacation get the feel for Biloxi, over actually trying to become an AP in a weekend.

On a side note, there was dealer who said he was "pissed at the casino" and routinely cut much much lower than the discard rack had marked (he'd even say screw them when he did it). He'd probably deal down to 25-30 cards left, but he was only dealing in relief. The few shots I got at him (he seemed to be very counter friendly tipping probably helped that) I continually got stuck with late negative counts so I couldn't capitalize like I wanted, but it seemed a golden opportunity for those 20 mins of every hour he was there.
JB

how much of a spread are you using ??? 1-8 units???

for 8-14 hours days for 2 days i think you would need more then 100 unit role. yesterday i played for 5 hours with similar players on the table and dipped 140 units... but thats a 1-20 spread 6 deck.. but still it can happen.

learn indecies, the variations from basic strategy.!!!!!!! very important

even though you were getting great pen 25-30 cards tipping will hurt you alot with a small bankroll