I'm in my first year of counting and feel like I've come a long way in a short time. My bank roll is not large. I play at the same place close to me because they have good rules and it's 15 minutes from my house. I don't track what I win but I've had at least 20-30 trips and I think only 4 of them were significant losses (maybe $2100 loss total in those 4 sessions), maybe 5-6 were even or up a small amount and the other ten were significant wins $200 up to $900). I've scouted out the dealers and know which ones give better penetration and which ones make payout errors both beneficial and non-beneficial. I've been extremely patient and have played long periods where the count is neither favorable or unfavorable. Minimum table bets are 10 but get raised to 15 later when it's busier. My small bet is table minimum, max bet has been $95. $100 or more gets called out every time and is probably too much for my bankroll anyway. I've raised and lowered my bets based on what my bankroll can handle and the count, but I don't really have a system of raising. If it goes to true count +1, I go to 15 and if it goes slightly above 1, I raise some more and every time it gets higher, I bump it up some more. I know I make mistakes at times. I catch them and review it after the fact. I see a lot of time being put into spreadsheets and numbers, but is that necessary? I've devoted my time to learning perfect strategy, counting and now I'm incorporating some deviations. I haven't had a lot of attention from the bosses but now they seem to be stopping over more often to chat or check in when they didn't before. I may be paranoid and I might be just getting lucky. I hear other players there saying nobody ever wins at blackjack there, but I'm winning fairly consistently. I've seen the horrible stretches and have seen the good ones. I guess the only feedback I get is more chips which is great, but how do I know if the reason I'm winning is counting or just dumb luck? Any suggestions for a newbie or are there any other rookies who can share their experiences?
New to counting.. how do I know if I'm winning because I'm doing things right or if it's just luck?
- Thread starter PA newbie
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You are kind of in the same boat as I and I appreciate your post. You may be on a long winning streak which should be followed at some time by a long losing streak. I used to keep detailed records even down to the time date dealer pit spread etc but with my small level of play and overbearing I remember once it all boiled down to about $5 per hour. I am now again trying to start anew and find my EV or what they call NO. I know with every hand I am getting closer to reaching my new documented NO. I was actually pleased to have a losing session after three consecutive winning sessions, it has a way of calming you down. I am not a true AP but aspire to shed this gambler garb before my final sleep. I say play on and stay below Kelly study and above all don't burn out your welcome. The math will always be there and your skills will improve but will you have access to the games, don't get backed off or barred. Plan for heat ahead of time.
Wrong. You are never 'due' to go on a long losing streak just because you have won for a long time and you're also never 'due' to go on a long winning streak just because you've been losing for a long time. Each session is independent from what happened in the past and each session has the +1 to +2.5% EV you expect to gain in the long run after a huge sample size usually around 20-40k rounds of blackjack you will start to see your EV come into play, some are luckier than others in the short run and it might take less, and some are unluckier than others and can take a lot longer sometimes even 50k or 60k rounds if you run badly and have a poor choice of games that you play.
If you really want to get technical, each shoe or hand dealt session is not really a +1 to +2.5% edge either, you might have a 40% accumulated disadvantave one shoe, a 50% accumulated advantage on another shoe, a 55% disadvantage one shoe, a 47%% advantage on another shoe, etc. This is due to each shoe suffering from what we call 'variance'. Sometimes you just get dealt horrible cards such as a 2-6 as your first card which usually ends in a stiff and has you facing that round with about a 40-60% disadvantage or so depending on the dealers upcard. On the other hand, sometimes you will have shoes where you are dealt tens and aces as your first card all shoe resulting in lots of pat hands such as 18-20 or even blackjacks leaving you with a 40-75% accumulated advantage for that shor depending on the dealers upcard or turning small cards into doubling opportunities such as a 10 or an 11 against a dealer stiff which will have you also playing at a huge advantage during those doubling rounds.
In the end, the sims show it will all boil down to about a +1.0 to +2.5% player advantage depending on a myriad of factors such as your style of play, penetration, rules, indices used, count system used, and the number of decks in play and whether or not you wong in aggressively, play all, or just wong out aggressively and play off the top.
If you really want to get technical, each shoe or hand dealt session is not really a +1 to +2.5% edge either, you might have a 40% accumulated disadvantave one shoe, a 50% accumulated advantage on another shoe, a 55% disadvantage one shoe, a 47%% advantage on another shoe, etc. This is due to each shoe suffering from what we call 'variance'. Sometimes you just get dealt horrible cards such as a 2-6 as your first card which usually ends in a stiff and has you facing that round with about a 40-60% disadvantage or so depending on the dealers upcard. On the other hand, sometimes you will have shoes where you are dealt tens and aces as your first card all shoe resulting in lots of pat hands such as 18-20 or even blackjacks leaving you with a 40-75% accumulated advantage for that shor depending on the dealers upcard or turning small cards into doubling opportunities such as a 10 or an 11 against a dealer stiff which will have you also playing at a huge advantage during those doubling rounds.
In the end, the sims show it will all boil down to about a +1.0 to +2.5% player advantage depending on a myriad of factors such as your style of play, penetration, rules, indices used, count system used, and the number of decks in play and whether or not you wong in aggressively, play all, or just wong out aggressively and play off the top.
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There you go Zenking. Pretty good post. I could quibble with a couple things, like that what count you play doesn't effect what edge you are playing to for any specific round very much, not even enough to mention....but I won't. (ok I just did, sort of. 
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But the point is, overall a good and helpful post. Almost makes you sound 'normal' when you aren't mentioning how the universe is out to get you, but that you overcome that because you are the greatest card counter alive. Ummm...almost.
)But the point is, overall a good and helpful post. Almost makes you sound 'normal' when you aren't mentioning how the universe is out to get you, but that you overcome that because you are the greatest card counter alive. Ummm...almost.