newb AP alert (seeking some wisdom)

[Harvey]

Hi im fairly new to counting but learning fast. I've been reading alot on these forums and elsewhere and have decided to make my first post.

First off I will not be heading to a casino any time soon. (middle of summer would be earliest but shooting for august sometime.) I need to sharpen my mind and practice more b4 playing for real. Unfortunately, when I am ready, I will have a limitied BR of 1K. :cry:

This is where I seed some help because my understanding of Kelly Criterion is kinda fuzzy. I've been practicing with CVBJ under AC rules (where i will most likely go.)

1. Shoe game (6 deck avg.) $5min = my 1 unit
2. No surrender
3. s17 (no hit soft 17)
4. CVBJ says penetration usually good/fair but sometimes varies
5. I use standard hi/lo with sweet 16 indexes :cool2:

Been practicing bets based on TC:
-1 = 1 unit
0 = 1 unit
1 = 1 unit
2 = 2 unit
3 = 2 unit
4 = 4 unit
5 = 4 unit

Sorry for the eyesore but I really really really need some advice

 

[paddywhack]

Hi im fairly new to counting but learning fast. I've been reading alot on these forums and elsewhere and have decided to make my first post.

First off I will not be heading to a casino any time soon. (middle of summer would be earliest but shooting for august sometime.) I need to sharpen my mind and practice more b4 playing for real. Unfortunately, when I am ready, I will have a limitied BR of 1K. :cry:

This is where I seed some help because my understanding of Kelly Criterion is kinda fuzzy. I've been practicing with CVBJ under AC rules (where i will most likely go.)

1. Shoe game (6 deck avg.) $5min = my 1 unit
2. No surrender
3. s17 (no hit soft 17)
4. CVBJ says penetration usually good/fair but sometimes varies
5. I use standard hi/lo with sweet 16 indexes :cool2:

Been practicing bets based on TC:
-1 = 1 unit
0 = 1 unit
1 = 1 unit
2 = 2 unit
3 = 2 unit
4 = 4 unit
5 = 4 unit

Sorry for the eyesore but I really really really need some advice

With this spread you'll be lucky to have a $1/hr EV.

A 1-4 spread is a losing proposition unless you only play positive counts, say starting at +2. Even then your win rate will be less than $3/hr.

 

[Midwestern]

i agree, your spread should be more aggressive to try to better capture the edge.

i would not play before TC+1.

minimum bet TC 1
TC 2 - bet 2-4
TC 3 - bet 5-9
TC 4 - bet 9-16

of course, you have to bet amounts that are comfortable for you, but i would certainly not spread JUST 1-4.

 

[Harvey]

i agree, your spread should be more aggressive to try to better capture the edge.

i would not play before TC+1.

minimum bet TC 1
TC 2 - bet 2-4
TC 3 - bet 5-9
TC 4 - bet 9-16

of course, you have to bet amounts that are comfortable for you, but i would certainly not spread JUST 1-4.

thx for reply
just to clear it up

1. i should observe untill i see a table with TC+1 then hop in

2. A TC of +4 would mean i have to bet a minimum of 45 (would be 1/22 of my bankroll) wouldn't my ROR be over the top? not sure because ROR and Kelly I need to understand better.

 

[paddywhack]

thx for reply
just to clear it up

1. i should observe untill i see a table with TC+1 then hop in

2. A TC of +4 would mean i have to bet a minimum of 45 (would be 1/22 of my bankroll) wouldn't my ROR be over the top? not sure because ROR and Kelly I need to understand better.

With a 1k bankroll you RoR will be over the top no matter what. But unless you have a reasonable spread (read 1-8 at least) you're pretty much fighting a losing game unless maybe you wonged in at TC+3. But you won't get a lot of hands in either.

 

[Harvey]

With a 1k bankroll you RoR will be over the top no matter what. But unless you have a reasonable spread (read 1-8 at least) you're pretty much fighting a losing game unless maybe you wonged in at TC+3. But you won't get a lot of hands in either.

thx
Wish i could raise my BR but thats alot of $$ for me atm

I've checked out these online RoR and house edge calculators but they seem way off...

I'll read more into 1-8 betting spreads bc I dont like the idea of waiting for a TC+3

 

[Midwestern]

if you only spread 1-8 your bet ramp is too slow and you're playing negative expectation game!

with a spread at least as solid as below, you will definitely put your BR at a higher ROR but at the betramp will help you take advantage of the edge at higher counts.

TC Lower than 1= refuse to play or minbet flat
TC 1 = 1 unit
TC 2 = 2-4 units
TC 3 = 5-8 Units

 

[zengrifter]

thx
Wish i could raise my BR but thats alot of $$ for me atm

If you ONLY play +counts you CAN use a 1-4 spread.
Someone give him a ramp for a 1- 2x4 wong spread.

You will STILL be over-betting, best to wait until you have $3000+ zg

 

[Harvey]

If you ONLY play +counts you CAN use a 1-4 spread.
Someone give him a ramp for a 1- 2x4 wong spread.

You will STILL be over-betting, best to wait until you have $3000+ zg

thanks for advise
I tried out the spread mid and paddy gave me and so far so good. (I know its to early to tell)
I'd save for 3k but it would take too long.. but Ill try for 1.5-2

 

[tthree]

Find the best game to help with BR issues

Good luck trying to find a playable low limit game in AC. You will probably either have to play high limit to get S17, Not wise with BR issues, Or H17 at comfortable limits. Your best way to deal with your bankroll issues if you cannt raise more money is find a better game. Id forget about AC maybe think PA or Conn.