No winners ever?

titan2782 · May 7, 2008

I've been a roulette player for the longest. My latest and greatest moment has was taking $50 and opening an account with an online casino and turning it into $3000 in 2 days. On the 3rd day however, I lost $1500. Both of these actions were done using a version of the martingale system that I came up with.

Recently I wanted to start black jack to see if I could do any better and start earning some extra weekend cash. I studied the basic strategy guide and for the most part have it memorized. But I feel that I need more. I started looking for a betting strategy to go along with the basic strategy guide. Most of what I found were people (mathmaticians, etc) who just discuss how the betting systems are flawed and can never work.

I agree with the math, yes. However, there has to be a way that a player can come out ahead more often than not. I knew two people who for a period of a year or two, made their living playing blackjack. I'm not in contact with them any longer so I cant ask them what the secret is, but it has to be something. These guys were not the brightest but they pulled it off.

So what is the approach to this favourous outcome? A lot of articles and books suggest money management, stop loss, etc and I agree with those as well since it's mostly self control. I saved my ass many times on the wheel by limiting what I was going to lose. Instead of losing $4k (which I didnt have) I only lost $200 or so.

The reason I like the wheel so much is that I play the 2:1 bets ith my modified martingale system and you can easily and quickly build your bank roll. But as the critics all say, the systems all have flaws and the losses are devistating. So what can be done in blackjack?

Sonny · May 7, 2008

titan2782 said:

That is exactly what a progression system does. If you use a negative progression system like the Martingale you will win the majority of your sessions. Unfortunately, as you noticed, your occasional losses will be very big and wipe out all of your profit. That is because progression systems only redistribute the winning sessions, they don’t overcome the house edge. You will still lose at the same rate because the house edge is still the same. In fact, you will often lose much more money because your are raising your bets so often and betting larger amounts of money. When you bet more money against the house edge, you lose more money. Things like stop-loss limits, stop-win limits and other bankroll management schemes do not change things much. The house edge is still there but you will be waling away from the table more often, which will help you to lose less money by playing less hands.

You can read through the Welcome thread at the top of this forum for more information on the limits of progression systems. You can also search this website for phrases like "stop loss" and "progression" to read discussions about those systems.

-Sonny-

titan2782 · May 7, 2008

Thanks for the reply, but i've gone over those already.

My question is, how can players make a living at BJ? Is it self control, luck, skill or a system?

Another question I had is, where does the house get it's advantage in BJ? Let's say that you played perfect BJ, the dealer has to follow his guidelines hit on 16 and stand on 17, how does the house have the advantage? Mathimatically speaking I mean. The dealer has the same restrictions on him as you do. I can see in roulette how the house has the advantage over the 1:1 bets because of the 0 and 00.

ihate17 · May 7, 2008

The most important rule in blackjack

titan2782 said:

The reason the house has an advantage in blackjack even though you get paid 3/2 on a blackjack is the rule that by far is often forgotten but is the most important.
Rule #1 If the dealer busts but you bust first, you LOSE!!!

Your other question:
How can one make a living playing blackjack?
A few do and many supliment their income playing blackjack and none of these people do it by playing a progression, and luck (positive variance) does not last.
You make your money playing blackjack through advantage player methods such as cardcounting, shuffle tracking or hole carding.

ihate17

titan2782 · May 7, 2008

thank you for that response. That makes sense to me. So card counting still works even with 8 or more decks? I worked in a casino for about a year and I had a lot of dealer friends. I was told that they change the number of decks used randomly through out the day and no one knows (dealers and players at least) how many are in play.

Sonny · May 7, 2008

titan2782 said:

Sure. It works with any number of decks.

titan2782 said:

As long as the cards are in view of the players then it isn’t difficult to tell how many decks are in use. It sounds like that particular casino is using a continuous shuffler machine that has the cards hidden inside and shuffles them after every round of play. If that is the case then you can’t count the cards in that game.

-Sonny-

titan2782 · May 7, 2008

i'm not an expert on statistics but it seems unreasonable that things can not be modified. Reading more and more articles, people proving the house always wins, I can see how that would be mathematically true. But what is the scope of that advantage? What if you used a technique like in trading stocks where you cost average. Simply play x number of hands each day, maybe at different hours even. Where does the scope end? Does the scope start and stop when you sit down and then leave or does it start at your first hand and end at your last hand 2 years later? Hopefully this question makes sense. From what i've seen, the scope has to be per session over x number of hands.

Maybe i'm a fool and i'm blinded by my "victory" at the wheel?

Thanks for humoring me.

callipygian · May 7, 2008

titan2782 said:

You would be virtually assured of losing money. Cost averaging work for you in the stock market because the stock market goes up in the long run. Cost averaging would work against you in gambling for the exact same reason - your bankroll goes down in the long run.

No matter what progression system you use, you're always gambling on winning short-term even though your long-term average will be negative.

Cardcounter · May 21, 2009

How roulette can be beat!

The problem is not with betting it is with the game. If you are playing a negative expectation game you will ultimately lose. However there are 3 ways to beat roulette find a basied wheel and figure out which number it baised towards and bet on that number, use matchplays or coupons that double your payout and bet on red, black, odd, or even, or use promotional chips that you got for a good deal and bet on numbers.

fredperson · May 21, 2009

progressive betting systems

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. And yes, there is a progressive betting system that works. Elsewhere in this forum I described my experience with developing and playing such a system for over 20 years with dramatic results.

However, anyone who posts that a non-counting system can work will be immediately attacked by all the "AP" players here who "know" better. They are convinced that they, and they alone, can beat casino blackjack.

My message is don't give up. It can be done.

itakeyourmoney · May 23, 2009

titan2782 said:

Step 1: Go into a casino at like 4:30am when everything is slow and everyone is tired.

Step 2: Find an absent minded dealer.

Step 3: Grab a handful of chips out of the tray.

Step 4: Run like hell.

Repeat until desired bankroll is reached. It also helps if you wear a disguise, so before doing this you should invest in one of those combo mustache and glasses getups.

itakeyourmoney · May 23, 2009

fredperson said:

Actually, we are convinced that MATH and MATH ALONE can prove which strategies will be winning and which ones will not.

standard toaster · May 24, 2009

fredperson said:

The ap players will attack your system because we have all had our shot at a progression we thought would win... but then we learned how things really work and that a progression system or any betting strategy can not and will not overcome the house edge. Eventually you will hit a streak that will destroy all your profits and your original br as well. If you believe you will not eventually hit a streak long enough to destory your bankroll you are fataly mistaken. There have been numerous studies to assess the effects of progression betting and all research came out the same way... an ultimate loss equal to the house edge... which was expected.

After all you need to understand why they are considered ap and the progression players are considered voodoo.

Oh and if you can prove to me that your progression strategy works in the long run ill send you a check for $20,000 tonight.

fredperson · May 24, 2009

Progression

Toaster...
I have no interest in proving to you, or anyone else that my system works.
On one occasion. it produced a win of $27,000.00 in a couple of hours.
Why would I be interested in 20,000.00?

I am not trying to promote this system. I am just trying to encourage other people to explore methods other then counting to win at BJ.

BTW, I have a masters degree in statistics, and over 50 years of computer software development experience.

1357111317 · May 24, 2009

fredperson said:

You won 27 thousand in a couple of hours? How about over your whole career? Some people on here have probably won 27 thousand in a shoe and have won hundreads of thousands in their lifetime.

There is no way of lowering the house edge unless you know what the composition of the following cards to be played is. The reason for this? The casino will always have the advantage. There is no method simply using the amount wagered to adjust the house edge unless of course you increase the wager when the advantage is in your favour. A betting system can never identify these situations where you have the advantage. Just because you have won the past 7 hands, there are 5 players at the table, the chip tray has been thoroughly depleted and you are playing anchor so you can bust the dealer does not mean you have the advantage.

You have a masters in statistics yet you don't understand the gamblers fallacy? Seems a bit fishy to me.

standard toaster · May 24, 2009

fredperson said:

If you have a masters in statistics and 50 years of software development behind you you should realize promoting a type of progression system is downright irresponsible.

A martingale has the ability to produce millions in a few minutes but you would have to invest billions... and eventually you will loose billions.

There are hundreds of players that would be willing to bet $20,000 that you can not produce a betting system that will work. Im willing to raise my bet to $100,000

QFIT · May 25, 2009

fredperson said:

So, what computers were you using 50+ years ago?

standard toaster · May 25, 2009

QFIT said:

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

They were great for simulation

RingyDingy · May 25, 2009

standard toaster said:

Crap you guys just ruined it for me, the casinos are now awake to it!

I use an abacus under the table, although it does get tough to move the beads quietly, considering both hands are above the table :devil:

fredperson · May 25, 2009

QFIT said:

Well, lets see....
During 1957 I wrote programs for the IBM 705, and the IBM 704.
In 1958 the IBM 709, and during 1959, the RCA 501.

Trust me, I probably know more about computers and computer simulation than anyone else that participates in this forum.

No winners ever?

New Member

Well-Known Member

New Member

Well-Known Member

New Member

Well-Known Member

New Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member