Background - I bought "Beat The Dealer" when I was in junior high school. Seriously. And by way of perspective, that was before gambling was even legal in Atlantic City. I've always been a statistics nerd.
About 5 years ago I started going to Las Vegas regularly (I retired early) and from about 2017 on, every month pre-COVID. I used to play craps and blackjack maybe 2-3 hours a day each, $5 or $10 and occasionally $25. I didn't even bother to memorize the entire basic strategy. Around late 2018 I did memorize the basic strategy and guess what, my results improved! I started counting in late 2019, although without really reading anything, my base bet was $15 going down to $5 or up to $30, 2-deck game, and I broke even on my two pre-COVID trips in 2020.
During my "time off" I worked on counting a bit. I normally don't gamble outside Las Vegas, but I decided to give it a try at a local casino. Playing a 6-deck game for about 3 1/2 hours and a bet range of $15-$60, I made $560 in 3 1/2 hours. I have a sense that I was a little bit lucky, and from what I've read I wouldn't have that EV with my bet range for that time.
I don't have a real need to make money at blackjack. It would be nice to make enough to pay for my trips, or at least part of them, and certainly to not lose money. I would hate to lose my playing privileges at the hotel I stay at.
So here are my questions.
1) If I can win $560 in the situation described, does this mean anything at all? Does it mean that I can probably play at least a slightly positive-value game? Don't get me wrong, if I lose $1120 next time, I'm not going to be slitting my wrists.
2) Given the number of casinos in Vegas, it is reasonable for me to hit each one for a 2-3 hour playing session once every few months? I would probably start out with $25 and play a range from $10-15 up to $75 and not do anything too obvious, like splitting 10's. And of course if I have a bad session, I'll put that property on my list for a repeat visit sooner. Is this enough to stay under the radar? Playing without a players card of course. I would probably still play at my "home" casino but I'll make sure I don't do much better than break even there.
3) From what I've read on this and other boards, someone playing red and green and a bet spread of 6-1 will not really get a lot of attention. Is that a correct impression?
4) The game I had been playing was a 2-deck game with cards dealt face down. The game I played in this week was an 8-deck shoe dealt face up, and I found it a lot easier to count when I could see the cards as they came out. (They also dealt to about an 80-85% penetration, which was nice.) Is this a common thought among AP's?
5) They definitely know me by sight at my "home" casino, or at least did a year ago. If I rathole a few chips, give some back at craps and video poker, and end up very close to even but less than their EV, will that keep me from being backed off?
6) What are the best kinds of places to go unnoticed.
I know there are no guarantees, but this is all about optimization in many different directions.
About 5 years ago I started going to Las Vegas regularly (I retired early) and from about 2017 on, every month pre-COVID. I used to play craps and blackjack maybe 2-3 hours a day each, $5 or $10 and occasionally $25. I didn't even bother to memorize the entire basic strategy. Around late 2018 I did memorize the basic strategy and guess what, my results improved! I started counting in late 2019, although without really reading anything, my base bet was $15 going down to $5 or up to $30, 2-deck game, and I broke even on my two pre-COVID trips in 2020.
During my "time off" I worked on counting a bit. I normally don't gamble outside Las Vegas, but I decided to give it a try at a local casino. Playing a 6-deck game for about 3 1/2 hours and a bet range of $15-$60, I made $560 in 3 1/2 hours. I have a sense that I was a little bit lucky, and from what I've read I wouldn't have that EV with my bet range for that time.
I don't have a real need to make money at blackjack. It would be nice to make enough to pay for my trips, or at least part of them, and certainly to not lose money. I would hate to lose my playing privileges at the hotel I stay at.
So here are my questions.
1) If I can win $560 in the situation described, does this mean anything at all? Does it mean that I can probably play at least a slightly positive-value game? Don't get me wrong, if I lose $1120 next time, I'm not going to be slitting my wrists.
2) Given the number of casinos in Vegas, it is reasonable for me to hit each one for a 2-3 hour playing session once every few months? I would probably start out with $25 and play a range from $10-15 up to $75 and not do anything too obvious, like splitting 10's. And of course if I have a bad session, I'll put that property on my list for a repeat visit sooner. Is this enough to stay under the radar? Playing without a players card of course. I would probably still play at my "home" casino but I'll make sure I don't do much better than break even there.
3) From what I've read on this and other boards, someone playing red and green and a bet spread of 6-1 will not really get a lot of attention. Is that a correct impression?
4) The game I had been playing was a 2-deck game with cards dealt face down. The game I played in this week was an 8-deck shoe dealt face up, and I found it a lot easier to count when I could see the cards as they came out. (They also dealt to about an 80-85% penetration, which was nice.) Is this a common thought among AP's?
5) They definitely know me by sight at my "home" casino, or at least did a year ago. If I rathole a few chips, give some back at craps and video poker, and end up very close to even but less than their EV, will that keep me from being backed off?
6) What are the best kinds of places to go unnoticed.
I know there are no guarantees, but this is all about optimization in many different directions.