normal variance or am I doing something wrong?

N

nicetrades200303

Well-Known Member
Hello, everyone.

I am a beginner counter. I’ve just finished my ninth session of this 6D game, double any two cards, double after splits, resplitting aces, dealer hits soft 17, pen is usually (depending on certain dealers) 79%-83%.

I use Daniel Dravot’s The Color of Blackjack, using the 6D shoe bet ramp chart, spreading 1-10, going two hands of $100 each hand at +24 counts and up. I scout tables, wong in when count is good and leave when count is bad. My first six sessions all had positive results. My last three all had negative results.

A simple calculation shows the house’s edge on this game is -.32%. With counting and proper bet spreads, I think we have the edge.

For the last three sessions, every time the count was +24 and up, the dealer or the other players at the table got more blackjacks and twenties than I did, and I had more hard hitting hands.

Am I being result oriented, and this is normal variance? This particular 6D game is beatable, right? Or am I doing something wrong and missing something?

I would appreciate any comments. Thank you.
 
Z

zoomie

Well-Known Member
Not a great game. House Edge ("HE") is actually .62% according to the Wizard. http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html

The variance? You ain't seen nothing yet :whip:

nicetrades200303 said:
Hello, everyone.

I am a beginner counter. I’ve just finished my ninth session of this 6D game, double any two cards, double after splits, resplitting aces, dealer hits soft 17, pen is usually (depending on certain dealers) 79%-83%.

I use Daniel Dravot’s The Color of Blackjack, using the 6D shoe bet ramp chart, spreading 1-10, going two hands of $100 each hand at +24 counts and up. I scout tables, wong in when count is good and leave when count is bad. My first six sessions all had positive results. My last three all had negative results.

A simple calculation shows the house’s edge on this game is -.32%. With counting and proper bet spreads, I think we have the edge.

For the last three sessions, every time the count was +24 and up, the dealer or the other players at the table got more blackjacks and twenties than I did, and I had more hard hitting hands.

Am I being result oriented, and this is normal variance? This particular 6D game is beatable, right? Or am I doing something wrong and missing something?

I would appreciate any comments. Thank you.
Click to expand...
 
Dyepaintball12

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
Yeah it's always great when the count goes super high and while everyone else is getting sick hands you're stuck with 15s and 16s. :mad: It happens man!

Like Zoomie said, you are going to see some shocking variance throughout your playing career.

I've won $5,000 in one DD shoe once, and I've also lost $4,000 in a 6-deck shoe only to win it all back in the last 5 hands. S*** is crazy.

- Dye
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
nicetrades200303 said:
...

For the last three sessions, every time the count was +24 and up, the dealer or the other players at the table got more blackjacks and twenties than I did, and I had more hard hitting hands.

....
Click to expand...
think of it this way........ it's a verification of sorts that some one was getting those twenties and blackjacks. it just didn't happen to be you, but next time, hey why not you?
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
sagefr0g said:
think of it this way........ it's a verification of sorts that some one was getting those twenties and blackjacks. it just didn't happen to be you.
Click to expand...
Thank you, Herr Professor Frog!

Two counters leaving the casino -
- one proclaims with passion, "we've got the edge"!
- the other replies, "ya, well they got the f**king money again! z:laugh:g
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
zengrifter said:
Thank you, Herr Professor Frog!

Two counters leaving the casino -
- one proclaims with passion, "we've got the edge"!
- the other replies, "ya, well they got the f**king money again! z:laugh:g
Click to expand...
Yes, in the real world I'd rather be consistently lucky and get the money
than consistently good and lose it. a:laugh:z
 
Eye of the Tiger

Eye of the Tiger

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Yes, in the real world I'd rather be consistently lucky and get the money
than consistently good and lose it. a:laugh:z
Click to expand...
Me to. It's the real world out there. When the long run comes up and hits you in the nuts it is sure hard to stomach. Most counters run out of money before they get their 2 million hands in to get to a +EV. You need LUCK no matter what.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
Toughen Up

nicetrades200303 said:
6D shoe bet ramp chart, spreading 1-10, going two hands of $100 each hand at +24 counts and up.

For the last three sessions, every time the count was +24 and up, the dealer or the other players at the table got more blackjacks and twenties than I did, and I had more hard hitting hands.
Click to expand...
If $100 bets get a checks play called, then probably best not to do that unless your bank is big and many bets are higher then $100.

If good cards came out at the correct time then you are fine, it's random where they land.

Gotta be mentally tough!
 
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