Not to surrender when using matchplay coupon

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by peaegg, Nov 7, 2011.

  1. peaegg

    peaegg Well-Known Member

    Recently I had 16 against dealer 10. I would have surrendered if without the matchplay coupon of $100. Of course I would loss the coupon if I choose to surrender. At that occasion, I only had $100 own chip in the circle. It is easy for me to figure out that I should hit to try to win or push for $200 instead of saving $50. I was lucky to pull a 5 out of the shoe. My question for those math wiz would be the following.

    How large the ratio of my bet to the value of the match play coupon should be to make surrender a better choice? Say it is a 6d shoe game, 16 against 10 at running count of zero.
  2. BJgenius007

    BJgenius007 Well-Known Member

    When the winning percentage of that hand is below 16.66%, then you surrender.

    Without the coupon, the threshold is 25%. You bet $100, you get $50 back when you surrender.

    $200 x 25% + $0 x 75% = $50

    Say the odds is only 20%, if you play it out, your hand is only worth $40.

    $200 x 20% + $0 x 80% = $40

    Because of the coupon, you will win $300 if you win.

    $300 x 16.67% + $0 x 83.33% = $50
  3. shadroch

    shadroch Well-Known Member

    Did you ask what would happen if you surrendered or did you just assume you would lose the coupon?
  4. peaegg

    peaegg Well-Known Member

    I checked

    Shadroch, Yes, I checked with the pit. I will loss the match play coupon.

    BJgenius007, I think your calculation doesn't include pushes. If the winning rate is 25%, the return will be better than 50% because of ties. But your math does help me to understand if my original bet was 100, I should not surrender unless the expected return is less than 33.3%.

    Now if my bet was 1000, the expected return for 16 against 10 if hitting would be 46%, according to wizard of odds. So I expect return would be:

    (1000 + 100) * 46% = 506.

    That's still over the half of my bet, so I should not surrender but getting close to. By the way, stand or hit would yield similar return because of 16 vs 10.

    If the above is correct, I think when the original bet is 12 times of coupon value or more, the expected return will be less than half of the original bet. This is significant. Many of us probably doesn't spread 12 to 1 at the first place, especially at black level. And the coupon value could be 2 or 4 times of one's single unit.

    I would conclude that surrender is not a good idea when using a coupon that has a value equal or larger than ones single unit, if one would loss the coupon by surrendering the hand.
  5. Wookets

    Wookets Well-Known Member

  6. peaegg

    peaegg Well-Known Member

    beyond coupons by JG

    Thanks for the link. I forgot to check this resource that I read a while ago. Here is the paragraph regarding to my situation. I think I almost agree what he said, except if the ratio of bet to coupon is over 12 times, say betting $200 and use a coupon of $10.

    Here is the part related to my original question.
    Some casinos off er Late Surrender, a rule allowing a player to forfeit half his wager on his initial two-card hand, after the dealer has veri ed that she does not have blackjack. Even the fine print does not explain how this rule is applied to coupons, so the opinion of the pit boss will carry the day. On a match-play, one interpretation would be to forfeit half of the live money, along with the entire coupon. With this implementation, the player should never surrender, because he is giving up too much.
  7. tthree

    tthree Banned

    I've seen the pit do this every way imaginable. The last time I saw a matchplay surrendered they payed half the value of the match play as it was surrendered. I believe that was at Parx East.
  8. NightStalker

    NightStalker Well-Known Member

    Note the EV for 16 Vs 10

    and then buy a chocolate for school kid...

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