How large the ratio of my bet to the value of the match play coupon should be to make surrender a better choice? Say it is a 6d shoe game, 16 against 10 at running count of zero.

- Thread starter peaegg
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How large the ratio of my bet to the value of the match play coupon should be to make surrender a better choice? Say it is a 6d shoe game, 16 against 10 at running count of zero.

peaegg said:

How large the ratio of my bet to the value of the match play coupon should be to make surrender a better choice? Say it is a 6d shoe game, 16 against 10 at running count of zero.

Without the coupon, the threshold is 25%. You bet $100, you get $50 back when you surrender.

$200 x 25% + $0 x 75% = $50

Say the odds is only 20%, if you play it out, your hand is only worth $40.

$200 x 20% + $0 x 80% = $40

Because of the coupon, you will win $300 if you win.

$300 x 16.67% + $0 x 83.33% = $50

Shadroch, Yes, I checked with the pit. I will loss the match play coupon.

BJgenius007, I think your calculation doesn't include pushes. If the winning rate is 25%, the return will be better than 50% because of ties. But your math does help me to understand if my original bet was 100, I should not surrender unless the expected return is less than 33.3%.

Now if my bet was 1000, the expected return for 16 against 10 if hitting would be 46%, according to wizard of odds. So I expect return would be:

(1000 + 100) * 46% = 506.

That's still over the half of my bet, so I should not surrender but getting close to. By the way, stand or hit would yield similar return because of 16 vs 10.

If the above is correct, I think when the original bet is 12 times of coupon value or more, the expected return will be less than half of the original bet. This is significant. Many of us probably doesn't spread 12 to 1 at the first place, especially at black level. And the coupon value could be 2 or 4 times of one's single unit.

I would conclude that surrender is not a good idea when using a coupon that has a value equal or larger than ones single unit, if one would loss the coupon by surrendering the hand.

Wookets said:

Here is the part related to my original question.

Some casinos offer Late Surrender, a rule allowing a player to forfeit half his wager on his initial two-card hand, after the dealer has veried that she does not have blackjack. Even the fine print does not explain how this rule is applied to coupons, so the opinion of the pit boss will carry the day. On a match-play, one interpretation would be to forfeit half of the live money, along with the entire coupon. With this implementation, the player should never surrender, because he is giving up too much.

peaegg said:

Here is the part related to my original question.

Some casinos offer Late Surrender, a rule allowing a player to forfeit half his wager on his initial two-card hand, after the dealer has veried that she does not have blackjack. Even the fine print does not explain how this rule is applied to coupons, so the opinion of the pit boss will carry the day. On a match-play, one interpretation would be to forfeit half of the live money, along with the entire coupon. With this implementation, the player should never surrender, because he is giving up too much.

Some casinos offer Late Surrender, a rule allowing a player to forfeit half his wager on his initial two-card hand, after the dealer has veried that she does not have blackjack. Even the fine print does not explain how this rule is applied to coupons, so the opinion of the pit boss will carry the day. On a match-play, one interpretation would be to forfeit half of the live money, along with the entire coupon. With this implementation, the player should never surrender, because he is giving up too much.

peaegg said:

How large the ratio of my bet to the value of the match play coupon should be to make surrender a better choice? Say it is a 6d shoe game, 16 against 10 at running count of zero.