Odds Question

[Mmmmkk...]

Before you see the dealers upcard the dealer will bust on average 30% of the time giving him an overall percentage of making a hand at 70%.
.7^10= .02825% of not busting at all in 10 consective hands....

Does anyone know if this is the EXACT percentage of the dealer not busting at all in 10 consective hands?

Please advise.

 

[QFIT]

There is no exact answer since it depends on the number of players and how they play.

 

[sabre]

Dealer bust percentages based on number of decks and S17/H17 are listed at

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2b.html

The number in the lower right cell for each table is the overall chance the dealer will break.

Given the dealer bust probability p

The chance of the dealer not busting n consecutive times is

(1-p)^n


This assumes that you are not counting the times that the dealer doesn't have an opportunity to bust because all the players in the round already busted.

 

[QFIT]

The chance of the dealer not busting n consecutive times is

(1-p)^n

Not EXACTLY, as requested. A bust changes the probability of a subsequent bust within the same shoe.

This assumes that you are not counting the times that the dealer doesn't have an opportunity to bust because all the players in the round already busted.

Which you can't ignore as it makes a significant difference