Orleans

[Doofus]

Stanford Wong's CBJN says this place is "heat city," but on an afternoon visit recently I didn't see any heat applied in a 1-4 spread with the tables only about half full. Perhaps if I had extended my visit beyond the hour that I had budgeted, but then again it's never a good idea to grow roots when you're an AP, is there?

 

[Knox]

A 1-4 spread and one hour or less should never get you much heat. If so, I would just cross the place off my list as unplayable, and do tell your friends.

 

[Doofus]

A 1-4 spread and one hour or less should never get you much heat. If so, I would just cross the place off my list as unplayable, and do tell your friends.

Tell that the the doughy-faced kid in the pit at the Four Queens!

 

[Knox]

Tell that the the doughy-faced kid in the pit at the Four Queens!

I have been there and did not stay long. 50% pen DD, and I am thinking no DAS. I believe they have a crowded SD game that pays 3:2, but that was not enough to get me to overlook the complete lack of ambiance and paranoid pit. Life is too short to waste time at places like that. Walk down to the Plaza and stress them out a bit.

 

[mdlbj]

Bad bad place to play..

 

[Tom007]

Bad bad place to play..

Are you talking about the Plaza or 4 Queens? And why?

 

[Paradox]

1-4 @ DD .5 Pen

I did a couple of sims.

If you were spreading $10-$40 at the game you describe with cover you were making 72 cents per hour and it would take over 161 years to over come the variance. That is if you played 8-hours per day five days per week. If you weren't playing with any cover and using the full SW16, you would make around $6 per hour. It would take you 13-years to over come the variance. That is if you played 4-hours per day three days per week.

This spread is not part of a winning game and the pathetic game is killing your bankroll. I wouldn't play a .40 DD game with .5 pen unless I could wong in @ TC +2 with black and purple chips.

The game you are describing is not even good enough for a comp hustle game unless you were betting black chips.

Good Luck,
Paradox

 

[Doofus]

I did a couple of sims.

If you were spreading $10-$40 at the game you describe with cover you were making 72 cents per hour and it would take over 161 years to over come the variance. That is if you played 8-hours per day five days per week. If you weren't playing with any cover and using the full SW16, you would make around $6 per hour. It would take you 13-years to over come the variance. That is if you played 4-hours per day three days per week.

This spread is not part of a winning game and the pathetic game is killing your bankroll. I wouldn't play a .40 DD game with .5 pen unless I could wong in @ TC +2 with black and purple chips.

The game you are describing is not even good enough for a comp hustle game unless you were betting black chips.

Good Luck,
Paradox

This shows why the Slide Rule Jockeys sound so very good when posting on the internet, but don't appear to have any real-world appreciation for the game.

Despite what your "couple of sims" said, I made about $160 playing here, $25 to $100 hands. I guess that's a few pennies more than the 72 cents the computer said I was supposed to make.

Yes there are definitely better games in Vegas. However, part of the pleasure I get from playing blackjack is checking out new places and games that are different from the ones I already know. I would not recommend making a special trip to this casino, but there are worse ones around.

 

[mdlbj]

Are you talking about the Plaza or 4 Queens? And why?

The Orleans..

 

[EasyRhino]

Serious, pay the slide rules some attention. A sim result is like to give the BEST POSSIBLE results, and not take into account mistakes, tipping, cover, nerves, etc.

And over the short or medium terms, your advantage or lack thereof is completely undetectable. The sliderule is all you have to go on.

Plus, a 1-4 spread in a DD game just isn't that great. That's like a singedeck spread.

 

[moo321]

I did a couple of sims.

If you were spreading $10-$40 at the game you describe with cover you were making 72 cents per hour and it would take over 161 years to over come the variance. That is if you played 8-hours per day five days per week. If you weren't playing with any cover and using the full SW16, you would make around $6 per hour. It would take you 13-years to over come the variance. That is if you played 4-hours per day three days per week.

This spread is not part of a winning game and the pathetic game is killing your bankroll. I wouldn't play a .40 DD game with .5 pen unless I could wong in @ TC +2 with black and purple chips.

The game you are describing is not even good enough for a comp hustle game unless you were betting black chips.

Good Luck,
Paradox

That doesn't sound even remotely correct. .5 units per hour with a 1-4 spread in double deck?

 

[Mimosine]

That doesn't sound even remotely correct. .5 units per hour with a 1-4 spread in double deck?

i don't own a slide rule, but when i pulled this envelope out of the trash and got a pen, i calculate that a 1-4 spread with a crap DD game should net at least 1 unit an hour probably 1.5.

 

[Sonny]

That doesn't sound even remotely correct. .5 units per hour with a 1-4 spread in double deck?

I get about the same thing with a quick and dirty CVCX sim. Spreading $10-$40 earns about $4 per 100 hands with a N0 of about 360,000. I used a DD game with 50% pen, H17 and nDAS. The player was using HiLo with the Ill18. As Paradox said, using less indices or any form of cover play/betting will bring the EV down even lower. It's a crap game.

Despite what your "couple of sims" said, I made about $160 playing here, $25 to $100 hands. I guess that's a few pennies more than the 72 cents the computer said I was supposed to make.

Yes, that’s the variance. Your EV was about $10/hour if you played perfectly. I’m glad to hear that you won, but you got lucky.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

I have occaisionally found GREAT pene at Orleans. zg

 

[Knox]

I think the main problem here is not the 1-4 spread but the bad penetration. Someone sim 1-4 spread same game for 60-75% pen in increments of 5% and I think you will see much better results. Do the same thing with 1-5, 1-6, 1-7, and 1-8 spreads (hold 50% pen constant) and it seems you would not see as much gain as from the increased pen.

If you are spreading $100-$400 your hourly win rate should be respectable with good pen. Why lambast the guy when he has the right idea but just needs to find a better game?

Preston: point taken about the $5 per hour or whatever. I think that is all you were trying to say and everyone should be aware of their EV and expected hourly win rate.

 

[Sonny]

I think the main problem here is not the 1-4 spread but the bad penetration.

Exactly. A few years ago you could find a fantastic DD game at the Plaza and Vegas Club. It was DAS with consistent 75% penetration. A $25-$100 spread there would earn $33 per hour or more, but the same game with only 50% pen only earns $15 per hour. Penetration is the single most important thing to look for (other than 3:2 payouts). That's why people spend so much time scouting casinos for good conditions and deep dealers. If you aren't playing good games, don't expect to win. As Paradox showed, you might have to wait 13 years or more to even have a reasonable chance of reaching your EV. Life is too short for that. Play better games.

-Sonny-

 

[Doofus]

Serious, pay the slide rules some attention. A sim result is like to give the BEST POSSIBLE results, and not take into account mistakes, tipping, cover, nerves, etc.

No, I don't agree that a sim is going to give you the best possible results. The game is far too filled with variance and (as you correctly identify) other factors to fit neatly on a spreadsheet.

Plus, a 1-4 spread in a DD game just isn't that great. That's like a singedeck spread.

I agree. This thread was posted up as an account of a scouting trip, nothing more.

 

[Knox]

Oops I meant Paradox not Preston.

I vote we string Doofus up and tar and feather him for playing bad games and getting lucky then thinking he's playing a better game than he is!

 

[Doofus]

Oops I meant Paradox not Preston.

I vote we string Doofus up and tar and feather him for playing bad games and getting lucky then thinking he's playing a better game than he is!

The truth of the matter is that I'd rather be lucky than good. Being lucky is a lot more fun!

 

[Knox]

True dat.

Be both and you will make some serious $!

1) Be lucky

2) Be good

3) Be selective