Other players mistakes: does it matter?

[Username]

Newbie to the forums...

If the player next to me decides to stand on a 5 because he "feels" the dealer is going to bust, it doesn't bother me. However, I've seen some other counters at the same table go absolutely crazy telling this guy that he should hit.

Do the mistakes of other "normal" players have a negative effect on my return as a counter? I figure that for every strategy mistake they make that causes me to lose, there's an equal number of mistakes they make that cause me to win...or am I missing something?

Thanks for the replies.

 

[21forme]

No. What another player does has no effect on you. A "bad" play is just as likely to help as hurt you.

When the count is negative, I sometimes use a bad play as an excuse to sit out or get up from the table. Perhaps that's what you saw.

 

[creeping panther]

Pay

No. What another player does has no effect on you. A "bad" play is just as likely to help as hurt you.

When the count is negative, I sometimes use a bad play as an excuse to sit out or get up from the table. Perhaps that's what you saw.

Pay no attention to what others are doing, make no comments, in most cases it will not effect you.

There are very few when it will.

Concern yourself with the important things, like your skillz, the quality of the game you are playing and whether or not you are getting undue attention.

CP

 

[Martin Gayle]

No. What another player does has no effect on you. A "bad" play is just as likely to help as hurt you.

When the count is negative, I sometimes use a bad play as an excuse to sit out or get up from the table. Perhaps that's what you saw.

As a general rule there are three negative effects that another player has on a counter.

1) Taking cards they shouldn't in a +ve count causing the count to get worse.

2) Taking cards they shouldn't which forces a shuffle in a +ve count.

3) Gross misplays causing you mental frustration and losing your concentration (you can overcome this).

There may be others. This is just part of what happens playing with others. A counter should not be MAD about a ploppy waving his 5, he should be happy the ploppy is not taking the X cards out.

 

[21forme]

As a general rule there are three negative effects that another player has on a counter.

1) Taking cards they shouldn't in a +ve count causing the count to get worse.

Balanced by standing when he should have taken another card (eg., standing on soft 17 or 18), or taking extra cards taken in a negative count

2) Taking cards they shouldn't which forces a shuffle in a +ve count.

Balanced by not taking cards in a positive count when they should

3) Gross misplays causing you mental frustration and losing your concentration (you can overcome this).

Ignore other players' moves. It doesn't matter and shouldn't frustrate you.

 

[Renzey]

As a general rule there are three negative effects that another player has on a counter.

1) Taking cards they shouldn't in a +EV count, causing the count to get worse.

Actually, taking an incorrect hit in a positive count does not cause the true count to get worse.

If the remaining shoe contains 55 high cards and 45 low cards (with no neutrals for the sake of discussion), the current TC is +5.2. Now, the next card, whether it should be taken or not will be a high card 55% of the time, bringing the TC down to +4.73. But it willl also be a low card 45% of the time, bringing the TC up to +5.78. Hence, the TC will fall by .47, fifty-five percent of the time, -- and will rise by .58, forty-five percent of the time -- causing it to average the same TC after the next unknown card is drawn.

An unrealistic, but more vivid example would be if there are only 3 cards left -- two 10's and a 5. The current TC is +17.33. Two times out of three, the next card will bring the TC down to zero. But one time out of three it will bring the TC up to +52.0. Across all three times, the TC will average +17.33 after the next card is drawn

 

[Mimosine]

N
I figure that for every strategy mistake they make that causes me to lose, there's an equal number of mistakes they make that cause me to win...or am I missing something?

you've answered your own question.

there is only one scenario where this isn't true, and that is if you KNOW the next card, or next few cards that are to come out of the shoe. Then most certainly someone could take a card that would secure your hand, or bust the dealer. simply knowing the count as Renzey pointed out - quite convincingly i might add - is not enough information to change their decision's effect on your hand.

only exact knowledge would change this scenario.

 

[QFIT]

There are other players?

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

Actually, taking an incorrect hit in a positive count does not cause the true count to get worse.

If the remaining shoe contains 55 high cards and 45 low cards (with no neutrals for the sake of discussion), the current TC is +5.2. Now, the next card, whether it should be taken or not will be a high card 55% of the time, bringing the TC down to +4.73. But it willl also be a low card 45% of the time, bringing the TC up to +5.78. Hence, the TC will fall by .47, fifty-five percent of the time, -- and will rise by .58, forty-five percent of the time -- causing it to average the same TC after the next unknown card is drawn.

An unrealistic, but more vivid example would be if there are only 3 cards left -- two 10's and a 5. The current TC is +17.33. Two times out of three, the next card will bring the TC down to zero. But one time out of three it will bring the TC up to +52.0. Across all three times, the TC will average +17.33 after the next card is drawn

I think what he was referring to is the fact that by taking that extra card, it is possible that the cut card will show up before the next hand...so the extra card may not effect the count, but what could happen is you are dealt less hands at that positive count...so therefore it would hurt your EV. More hits, less hands, lower EV.

 

[stophon]

If the remaining shoe contains 55 high cards and 45 low cards (with no neutrals for the sake of discussion), the current TC is +5.2. Now, the next card, whether it should be taken or not will be a high card 55% of the time, bringing the TC down to +4.73. But it willl also be a low card 45% of the time, bringing the TC up to +5.78. Hence, the TC will fall by .47, fifty-five percent of the time, -- and will rise by .58, forty-five percent of the time -- causing it to average the same TC after the next unknown card is drawn.

But the majority of the time the count will fall right?
I thought the reason why we put out the big bets in a high tc is because it is probable that the tc will go down in the following hands.

 

[Mimosine]

But the majority of the time the count will fall right?
I thought the reason why we put out the big bets in a high tc is because it is probable that the tc will go down in the following hands.

we put out big bets in high counts because we have a statistical edge over the house edge in those moments. high counts say NOTHING at ALL about what will happen next with the count.


Especially if there are 78 cards hiding behind the cut card.

 

[Renzey]

I thought the reason why we put out the big bets in a high TC is because it is probable that the TC will go down in the following hands.

That's a slanted and technically incorrect view. The reason you bet more in high TC's is because there are more high cards than low ones in the current supply. If the current supply were 60% highs and 40% lows, then 60% of the next 10 cards should be high ones. That's purely why you bet more!

Now, after those 6 highs and 4 lows have come out, what have you got? You've got 54 highs and 36 lows, which is still 60% high cards and therefore the same TC. (It's just that the RC has dropped by 10% -- from +20 down to +18, but with 10% fewer cards in the supply, you still have the same proportional high/low composition). Unbalanced count players are not forced to deal with this concept, and may not recognize it.

Remember that whatever the TC is right now has become the new norm -- and it will tend to hover around that until it happens by sheer chance to become something different. Then, that will be the new norm with its new corresponding "central tendency".

 

[QFIT]

But the majority of the time the count will fall right?
I thought the reason why we put out the big bets in a high tc is because it is probable that the tc will go down in the following hands.

The TC will stay the same on average. The running count will drop.

 

[Mimosine]

Unbalanced count players are not forced to deal with this concept, and may not recognize it.

Us unbalanced players are willfully ignorant of such academic considerations as changing TCs!

Pivots and Key Counts, now you've got me interested!