I am in the midst of a friendly arguement with a coworker regarding whether or not other people's play affects my odds of winning.
Will the other player decrease my odds of winning (decrease the odds of the dealer busting) if he splits his Kings?
http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/blackjack-experiment-shows-bad-players-dont-hurt-you-1034
http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/bad-blackjack-players-dont-hurt-your-odds-8863
This is also from Renzey:
Dealer's Hand
2 - 10
5 - 10 10 - 5
3rd Base You
9 - 10
Next 2 cards
Let's just have a little peak at the dealer's hole card, shall we? As you can see, it's a 10 giving him 12. But let's not stop there. You see, I've just bribed the dealer into flashing us a glimpse of the next two cards in the shoe? They're a 9 and a 10, but he flashed them so quickly that we couldn't tell which card was first and which was second.
Now you know everything there is to know except for the final outcome. So, I ask you again. How do you want the third baseman to play his hand? Notice that if he hits, no matter which card comes first, he loses. And if he stands, he's got a 50-50 shot at winning. So, obviously, hitting would be a horrible play -- for him. But how does that affect your chances?
If the third baseman stands like you probably want him to, and the 9 is first out of the shoe, the dealer makes 21. But if the 10 comes first, the dealer busts. Now, instead, what happens if the third baseman hits? Well, when the 9 comes first, the dealer gets the 10 and busts. But if the 10 is the first card out, the dealer makes 21 with the 9. Now, I'm going to ask you one last time. How do you want the third baseman to play his hand?
Can you see that while hitting his hand is the wrong play for Mr. 3rd Base, your odds to win remain the same no matter what he does? That's absolutely true because your chance to win really doesn't depend upon whether the 3rd baseman plays his hand right or wrong but upon which card is first out of the shoe. Many times it won't matter whether the dealer gets the first or the second card –- they'll either both make him or break him. But when it does matter, you never know which blind card you want him to get. Therefore, being all hung up over whether the 3rd baseman stands or hits is just plain silly.
Now, your immediate response to the above scenario may be that it only works this way because of the particular hypothetical situation that I've set up. Well then, go ahead and replace the dealer's hole card with any other you wish. Also replace the next two cards in the shoe with any others, as well. You'll find that whenever it makes any difference at all, it always come down to that same question of whether the first or second card out of the shoe is better for the dealer. And if you think you know the answer to that question in advance, then I want to gamble against you all day long
